在改革与瘫痪之间：印度尼西亚、世贸组织的不确定性和多党临时上诉仲裁安排案

Between Reform and Paralysis: Indonesia,WTO Uncertainty, and the Case for theMulti-PartyInterim Appeal ArbitrationArrangement (MPIA) Intan Murnira Ramli and Megawati Key Messages: •The WTO dispute settlementsystem has faced prolongeduncertaintysincetheAppellate Body (AB) ceasedfunctioninginDecember2019. Indonesia’s potential accession to the Multi-Party Interim AppealArbitration Arrangement (MPIA) represents a timely and strategicstep to restore legal certainty in World Trade Organization (WTO)dispute settlement. The paralysis of the WTO Appellate Bodyhas weakened the multilateral trading system, leaving disputesunresolved and undermining confidence in global trade rules. •Heightenedgeoeconomicandgeopoliticaltensionshave amplified the need forapredictable,rules-basedmechanism for legal reviewand dispute settlement. The MPIA offers a credible, binding alternative that preservesappellate review. By joining, Indonesia could safeguard its keyexport sectors, prevent disputes from being ‘appealed into thevoid,’ and align with other ASEAN Member States that are alreadyparticipants. This policy brief assesses the relevance and implications of MPIAmembership for Indonesia, highlights the risks of non-participation,and outlines policy options. It recommends that Indonesia considerjoining the MPIA while simultaneously: •The MPIA offers a temporarybutcredible solution torestoreconfidence in themultilateral trading system.While its long-term role isdebated, the MPIA ensuresthatappealslodgedbymembers to defend nationalinterestsarenotleftunresolved or ‘appealed intothe void.’ • Advocating for comprehensive WTO reform, and• Leveraging regional mechanisms to safeguard its trade interests. 1. Certain Uncertainty: The Emergence of MPIA Context On 9 July 2025, President Trump announced a 32% tariff on Indonesianexports to the United States (White House, 2025). This measureextended the earlier reciprocal tariff introduced on ‘liberation day’(2 April 2025). Although a subsequent announcement on 15 Julyindicated a partial relaxation of the tariff by 19% following a newdeal with Indonesia, the rapid and unpredictable shifts highlight thevolatile nature of current geoeconomic dynamics. Similarly, Chinalaunched retaliatory measures against the European Union’s (EU)public procurement ban, targeting EU medical appliances on 6 July2025 (CNBC Indonesia, 2025). These developments underscore theuncertainty and instability that characterise global trade today. Intan Murnira RamliSenior Policy Fellow, ERIA Changing Norms in Trade MegawatiTrade Policy Fellow, ERIA This fluid environment has encouraged new practices such asfriendshoring, where supply chain networks are structured amongstcountries with aligned political or economic interests (WEF, 2023). a ‘China–EU arrangement.’ In a formal letter to theWTO Director General, the US argued that the MPIA‘incorporates and exacerbates some of the worstaspects of the AB’s practices’ (Ambassador Shea’sformal letter to WTO’s Director General, 2020). Forexample,the US–Japan Partnership onSemiconductorand Electronics Supply Chainsreflectsthis approach(Converge,2024).Suchpractices further complicate the multilateral tradingsystemand increase the importance of robustdispute resolution mechanisms. Incontrast,proponents such as the EU andChina view the MPIA as an indispensable interimmechanism for maintaining stability in trade lawwhile broader WTO reforms are under negotiation.The EU’s Commissioner for Trade and EconomicSecurity recently stated that: The WTO Dispute Settlement Void The dispute settlement mechanism of the WorldTrade Organization (WTO), once considered the mostdistinguished feature of the multilateral tradingsystem, has been paralysed since December 2019when the Appellate Body (AB) ceased functioning.The deadlock, driven by the United States’ consistentblocking of new appointments due to concerns overjudicialoverreach and procedural shortcomings(Galbraith, 2019), has created a loophole. Memberscan now file appeals ‘into the void,’ preventingdisputes from being resolved or enforced. This hasweakened both the credibility and the functioning ofthe WTO dispute settlement system, creating whathas become a ‘certain uncertainty’ for membercountries. ‘Given the current trade tensions, the MPIA is evermore important. It ensures the final and orderlyresolution of trade disputes amongst its participantsandsupportsrules-basedtrade’(EuropeanCommission, 2025). Institutional Design and Independence To safeguard independence and fairness, arbitratorsinMPIA appeals are selected randomly by theWTO Secretariat from a roster of ten individualsnominatedby participating countries.Threearbitrators are appointed per case, with selectionbased on merit and expertise. This mechanismaims to avoid political bias and preserve credibility,echoing the rules-based approach of the AppellateBody. MPIA as an Interim Response To address this impasse, the Multi-Party InterimAppealArbitration Arrangeme