美联储2019-20年货币政策框架审查的起源、结构和结果

Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online) The Origins, Structure, and Results of the Federal Reserve’s2019–20 Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework Fran¸cois Gourio, Benjamin K. Johannsen, David L´opez-Salido 2025-065 Please cite this paper as:Gourio, Fran¸cois, Benjamin K. Johannsen, and David L´opez-Salido (2025). “The Origins,Structure, and Results of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 Review of Its Monetary PolicyFramework,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-065.Washington:Board ofGovernors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.065. NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment.The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. The Origins, Structure, and Results of the FederalReserve’s 2019–20 Review of Its Monetary PolicyFramework François Gourio, Benjamin K. Johannsen, David López-Salido1 The analysis in this paper was presented to the Federal Open Market Committee as backgroundfor its discussion of the Federal Reserve’s 2025 review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, andcommunications. Abstract:In this paper, we describe the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 review of its monetarypolicy framework. First, we discuss the historical background of and motivation for the review.We then summarize the structure of the 2019–20 review, which included Fed Listens events, aflagship research conference, a series of staff analyses, and related Federal Open MarketCommittee (FOMC) deliberations. Finally, we present the main outcomes of the review, withparticular attention paid to changes to the FOMC’s Statement on Longer Run Goals andMonetary Policy Strategy. JEL Classification:E52, E58. Keywords:Federal Reserve, framework review, consensus statement, inflation targeting,effective lower bound. 1. Introduction and overview In 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its first Statement onLonger-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy (hereafter “consensus statement”), whichspelled out key aspects of its monetary policy framework. The adoption of this consensusstatement took place in the context of a broad, worldwide trend in central banking towards moretransparency and accountability (and in, particular, towards a specific monetary regime that hadbecome known as inflation targeting), but it was also brought about by the issues and challengesthat the post Global Financial Crisis environment raised for monetary policy. From its adoptionin 2012, the consensus statement was seen as “quasi-constitutional” with respect to theCommittee’s behavior, and was reaffirmed in the years before the 2019–20 review withrelatively little change. With employment and inflation near the Committee’s objectives, 2019 was an opportunetime to reflect on the performance of the existing framework, to assess the experienceaccumulated with new policy tools, and to study if any changes to the framework might beappropriate in light of the changing macroeconomic environment. In contrast to the process thatled to the 2012 consensus statement, and consistent with the practices at some foreign centralbanks, the 2019–20 review included a number of public events that engaged a wide range ofpeople, which was an innovation for the Federal Reserve. The review examined the FOMC’smonetary policy framework—its strategy, tools, and communication practices—and took asgiven the goals assigned to the FOMC in the Federal Reserve Act, and the 2 percent longer-runinflation objective chosen by the FOMC as its numerical interpretation of its price stabilityobjective. The review consisted of three main components: (1)Fed Listensevents, (2) aflagship research conference, and (3) a sequence of staff memos to support the FOMC’sdeliberations. A main outcome of the 2019–20 review was the revised consensus statement. Therevised statement retained many of the elements of its previous versions, with some discretechanges that were the result of the experience since 2012. With the improved understanding ofhow its tools operate, the Committee indicated that it was prepared to use its full range of tools ifeconomic circumstances warranted. Because of the proximity of interest rates to the effectivelower bound and associated downward risks to employment and inflation, the revised consensusstatement emphasized anchoring longer-term inflation expectations at the Committee’s goal of2 percent. To support this anchoring, the statement indicated that the FOMC would seek to“achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time” and that it would “likely aim to achieveinflation mode