8月25日至29日亚洲一周走势图-117431838

EconomicsAsia Week Ahead Asia Chart of the week: 25 - 29 August Juliana Lee Week Ahead Chief Economist+65-6423-5203 Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole pivot provides support for Asian FX, including theKorean won and the peso, removing an obstacle to rate cuts on 28 August. Whilewe have maintained our prevailing forecast of rate cuts by both the BoK and BSP,of the two, we see a greater risk to our call on the BoK. While both face the task ofsupporting growth to help close the negative output gap, the BoK's task iscomplicated by its policy preoccupation with Seoul housing prices, while the high-stakes summit between President Lee and Trump also weighs on its decision. Kaushik DasChief Economist+91-22-7180 4909 Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist+852-2203 6139 Junjie Huang Economist+65-6423-6699 We see BSP lowering its policy rate by 25bps on 28 August.In the June monetarypolicy report,BSP noted that the negative output gap was now expected to closetowards end-2027, instead of end-2026as we understood from earlier in March.Moreover, Philippines’ headline inflation fell by a sharp 0.5-ppt to 0.9% YoY in July,the lowest since Oct 2019, and bringing the YTD average to 1.7%. Consequently,the real rate remains elevated. We expect inflation to remain below BSP’s 2-4%target going into early-2026. President Marcos’ order to suspend rice imports inSep-Oct this year could add some upsides to inflation, but it is unlikely to causeovershoots in inflation for a sustained period, barring any extensions to thesuspension or increases in tariffs on rice imports. See BSP to cut in Aug and Dec tofurther support growth for details. Deyun OuEconomist+852-2203 6166 While we havemaintained our forecast of a 25 bps rate cutby the BoK, there aretwo factors that could prompt the BoK to delay its rate cuts until later:housing andthe high-stakes summitbetween President Lee and Trump, which could havesignificant impact on South Korea's outlook. For example,details related to thetrade dealbetween the US and South Korea are pending, including the latter's USD350 billion investment pledge, and the "modernization" of the US's alliance withSouth Korea, beyond shipbuilding. Meanwhile, housing pricesremain a significantsource of uncertainty for the BoK's policy decision, despite the moderation in theweek-on-week increase in Seoul housing prices. There is also the matter of thegovernment'splan to further strengthen household debt management andincreasethe supply of affordable rental housing.At the same time,theconstruction sector remains under significant pressure, with the governmentseeking to clean up real estate PF loans. The sectors requiring and targeted forrestructuringhave been expanded to include the petrochemical sector, reflectingstructural pressure on South Korea's manufacturing sector. Despite this, however,positive data surprises in Q2 will promptthe BoK to revise upits growth forecast of 0.8% and 1.6% published in May to match the government's, which has beenrecently revised higher by 0.1 ppts to 0.9% for 2025 but remains unchanged for2026 at 1.8%. Despite the upward revision, the government's revised forecast stillpoints to a significant slowdown in sequential GDP growth, to 0.3% in 2026 from0.5% in 2025, anda persistent negative output gapthrough end-2026. Thegovernment's budget related announcements thus far suggest a more balancedfiscal plan, requiring monetary policy to supplement its efforts to bring aboutsustained recovery to close the negative output gap. Meanwhile, the governmenthasa relatively benign CPI inflation forecast of 2%through next year, which islikely to be echoed by the BoK, not standing as a barrier to rate cuts. India’s April-June'25 real GDP is forecast to rise 6.6% YoY, lower than the 7.4%outturn in the previous quarter.Obviously, the April-June'25 data is backward-looking, with the potential adverse tariff impact likely to be reflected only in thefuture quarters' numbers. But still, the upcoming GDP data is likely to set thereference point for future growth outlook, in our view.We have argued for quitesome time that the growth risks faced by the Indian economy cannot and shouldnot be tackled solely through monetary policy support.Strong fiscal-monetarycoordination naturally becomes imperative, particularly with monetary policyalready having done most of the heavy lifting thus far. To be fair, the Government ofIndia has already announced INR 1 trn tax cuts in the FY26 Union Budget on 1 Feb,which should add to the real disposable income of households and provide a boostto growth. The latest announcement of GST rates rationalization is yet anotherwelcome fiscal measure. On tariffs, we remain hopeful that future negotiations willresult in the US administration reducing the 50% tariffs imposed on India.Eventually, we expect India’s tariffs to be brought down below 25%. See our notefor details. We expect Taiwan industrial production to stay high at 20% YoY in July, fueled bystrong exports.Exports surged to a