美联储评论：别太着急

Not so fast Market pricing suggests at least a 25bp cut at the SeptemberFOMC meeting. However, despite the sharp downwardrevisions to the jobs data, unemployment and inflationdevelopments may not change Powell's recent stance much.We retain our call for a December cut as we await guidancefrom Jackson Hole. US Economics Marc Giannoni+1 212 526 9373marc.giannoni@barclays.comBCI, US Jonathan Millar+1 212 526 4876jonathan.millar@barclays.comBCI, US •At the July FOMC press conference, Chair Powell delivered hawkish comments and suggestedthat the FOMC was in no rush to adjust rates.Since then, Fed communications suggest thatthe FOMC voters remain dividedevenafterdownward revisions to the employmentestimates. Pooja Sriram+1 212 526 0713pooja.sriram@barclays.comBCI, US •Following comments from FOMC speakers and Treasury Secretary Bessent on August 13,markets were pricing in at least a 25bp rate cut at the September meeting and more than twocuts before the end of 2025. Colin Johanson+1 212 526 8536colin.johanson@barclays.comBCI, US •In our view, the incoming data, including the latest employment report, do not warrantmuch change to Powell's recent hawkish stance, and we see no indication that the hawkishFOMC members are changing their tune. While we think the odds have risen, we view marketparticipants as excessively confident in a September cut. •We see the September FOMC decision as a close call, butwe retain our call for a single 25bpcut this year, in December, as we await more guidance from FOMC speakers at JacksonHolenext week to reassess the risks of an earlier cut. A reiteration of Powell's earliercomments would likely reduce expectations of a September cut, while a new emphasis on aweakening labor market would likely cement expectations for one. Reassessing economic conditions ahead ofSeptember's FOMC meeting At the July FOMC press conference, Chair Powell delivered hawkish comments and suggestedthat the FOMC was in no rush to adjust rates, which he viewed as only modestly restrictive,alongside accommodative financial conditions. Powell characterized the labor market as solidand emphasized that the relatively low unemployment rate showed little labor market slack,explaining that low payroll job gains could be consistent with full employment. He argued thatpolicy was looking through thetariff-relatedprice increases by not raising rates, andemphasized that the FOMC had an obligation to keep inflation expectations well anchored tomake certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflationproblem. Since then, the July employment estimate came in below consensus expectations, along withsignificant downward revisions to the May and June prints. These developments dramatically raised expectations for a September cut, suggesting thatmarket participants view Powell's July comments as stale. On August 13, the market was pricingat least a 25bp rate cut at the September meeting, and more than two quarter-point cuts beforethe end of 2025,afterTreasury Secretary Bessent called for a 50bp cut in September (Figure 1). Note: Current data represent August 13, 2025.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research In our view, the incoming data, including the latest employment report, do not invalidatePowell's recent hawkish comments.While the July employment report implied a significantdownward revision in the 3mma payroll print and indicated a 13bp increase in theunemployment rate, the latter remains low at 4.2%, and we don't think Powell's post-meetingremarks would have fundamentally changed had he seen the payroll release ahead of hiscomments. We think that market participants are excessively confident in a September cut, as they aremisinterpreting both the FOMC's assessment of labor market conditions and its reactionfunction. They seem to believe that the FOMC wants to cut rates significantly to preventemployment from slowing further. However, FOMC participants appear to remain divided onthis issue. On the one hand, Kashkari (non-voter) and Cook (voter) expressed concerns about aslowing economy and labor market, while Daly (non-voter) joined governors Waller (voter) andBowman (voter) in calling for rate cuts as early as September. On the other, Fed presidentsMusalem (voter), Schmid (voter), Hammack (non-voter), and Bostic (non-voter) expressed moreconcerns about inflation and favored maintaining the stance of policy for now. Manyparticipants have not publicly weighed in, including a number of voters. If the slowing in employment is—as Powell and we have argued—caused by slowing labor forcegrowth due to immigration and aging, there is little the FOMC can do about it, and it would beinappropriate to cut rates in order to boost employment in that case. In our view, the main question is not so much about whether the Fed needs to ease policy tolean against job declines, but whether the situation warrants cuts on the grounds that thebalance of risks hasshiftedaway from inflation and towar