行业研究公司研究宏观策略财报招股书会议纪要 seedance2.0 低空经济 DeepSeek AIGC 大模型

结果以优势击败预期

2025-08-25 Hayman Chi 信达国际还是郁闷闷啊

Sunny’s 1H25 result was a mixed bag, with revenue largely in line with Bloomberg consensus supported by auto and XR business (+18.2%/+21.1% YoY), while net income far beat consensus by 15%. Revenue and net profit came in at RMB19,651mn/1,646mn respectively (+4.2%/+52.6% YoY), reaching 46.5%/50% of our FY25E forecasts, with the latter ahead of FY23-24 average (41% of full year).

Key points:

Net profit beat: Driven by:
- Smartphone end demand gradual recovery (esp. flagship models) and increased high-end product mix, which drove up ASP and GM.
- Blended GM ahead of our FY25E estimate by 0.9 ppt at 19.8% (vs. 17.2%/19.3% at 1H24/2H24), the highest since 1H22, thanks to optical components (HLS+VLS) and optoelectronics (HCM+auto CCM) margin improvement on spec upgrade.
- SG&A ratio edged down by 0.2 ppt YoY to 3.95%.
- Lower interest expense and effective tax rate.
Handset related sales: Up 1.7% YoY to RMB13.2bn, thanks to spec upgrade and lesser competition, improving both ASP and GM which offset the drop in shipment volume. HLS and CCM ASP grew 20% YoY, with revenue from 6P and above HLS, hybrid HLS, periscopes, and large image size camera modules growing >9%/>100%/>20% respectively. HLS and HCM shipment reached 50%/47% of our FY25E shipment forecasts (HLS: +5% YoY/ HCM + ~8% YoY).
XR related revenue: Grew 21.1% YoY to ~RMB1.2bn, taking up 6.1% of total revenue, driven by explosive smart glasses market. Sunny serves >30 AI glass customers and maintains global leading market share in optical display and imaging modules. Stuck to its flattish XR revenue growth in FY25E, as VR growth to be offset by decent AI/AR growth.
Automotive products: Vehicle related products sales rose 18.2% YoY to RMB3,400mn, accounting for ~17.3% of total revenue, on the back of VLS shipment grew ~21.7% YoY to 64.7mn units. Sunny guided automotive revenue growth would be >20% in FY25E, driven by VLS & auto CCM shipment growth, together with ASP upside. 7M25 shipment ahead of our FY25E shipment forecast at ~76.1mn units (+22.6% YoY, ~64% of FY25E of our forecasts). VLS shipment to grow mid-teens in FY25E. Sunny’s automotive business outlook remains upbeat, driven by project wins, increasing number of cam adoption, more compact design, and pixel migration. Continued to deepen its strategic ecological cooperation with global mainstream intelligent driving platform providers.
CAPEX: 1H25 CAPEX mainly on HCM, automotive and infrastructure, with R&D expense arrived at ~RMB1.6bn and accounted for 8.3% of total revenue.

Research conclusion:

Raise FY25E-27E net profit estimates by 10.9%/13.2%/21.5%, on better GM forecasts, while leaving revenue estimate largely unchanged.
Expect a mild recovery in FY25E/26E driven by top-tier smartphone clients.
Sunny’s leadership in HLS and HCM remains intact, and their strategy to diversify away from smartphones is well on track, with non-smartphone revenue contribution increased to >35% of total revenue in 2H24.
Sunny is now trading at FY26E 18.3x PE (~1 s.d. below Sunny’s 10-year average), expect FY24-27E net profit CAGR would accelerate to 25.2%.
Maintain BUY rating with new TPat HK$108.05, which translates to FY26E 25.0x target PE (implying 1.0x PEG).
Sunny remains one of our sector top pick, continue to advise investors to accumulate on dip or ride on Sunny’s long term growth (auto+XR+ increasing AI adoption in smartphones).

Risk Factors:

Downside risks include prolonged upstream component supply shock, further slowdown in PRC customers’ smartphone shipment, slower than expected multi-lens/HCM adoption in Android camp, non-smartphone products’ shipment/sales disappoints, pricing pressure arising from overseas players and domestic peers, and RMB depreciation.

Result beat on margin surprise 1H25net profitbeaton GMandstable cost control Result Takeaway Sunny’s1H25resultwas amixed bag,withrevenuelargely in-line withBloomberg consensussupported by auto+ XR business (+18.2%/+21.1%Yoy), whilenet incomefar beat consensus by 15%.Revenue and netprofitcameinatRMB19,651mn/1,646mnrespectively(+4.2%/+52.6%Yoy),Sunny’s 1H25 revenue and net profit reached46.5%50% of our FY25Eforecasts, in which the latter was ahead of FY23-24 average (i.e. 41% of full year) 25 August 2025 Hayman Chiuhayman.chiu@cinda.com.hk(852) 2235 7677 We attributedSunny’s strong net profit beat to:i)smartphone enddemandgradual recovery (esp. flagship models),and increased high-end product mix,whichdroveupASP and GM.Blended GMwasahead of our FY25Eestimate by 0.9 ppt and came in 19.8% (vs.1H24/2H24 at17.2%/19.3%),the highest since 1H22, thanks toopticalcomponents(HLS+VLS)and optoelectronics(HCM+auto CCM)marginimprovementon spec upgrade; ii)SG&A ratio edged down by0.2 pptYoy to 3.95% and iii)lowerinterest expense andeffective taxrate. Trading data 52-Week Range (HK$)3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m)No of Shares (m)Market Cap (HK$m)Major Shareholders (%)AuditorsResultDue96.15/42.3011.511,094.886,762.9WangWenjian (38.5%)DeloitteFY25E:Mar 2026 Quality growth strategy stays intact,GMupside potentialin HLSand HCM; Companydescription Sunny continue to uphold its global leading position in HLS and HCM with30.8%/12.1%market sharein 2024.Handset related saleswas up 1.7%Yoy to RMB13.2bnthanks tospecupgradeandlessercompetitionhelpimprovebothASPand GMwhich more than offset the drop in shipmentvolume.Management shared thatboth the ASP of HLS and CCM grew20% Yoy, in which revenue from 6P and above HLS,hybrid (glass+plastic)HLS,periscopes and large image size(>1/1.5”)camera modulesgrew>9%/>100%/>20% respectively. Optical components (mainly HLS)andoptoelectronics(mostly HCM)shipment volume arrived at594mn/249mn units(-6.4%/-21.0%Yoy)respectively.Sunny’s YTD(7M25) HLS and HCMshipment reached 50%/47% of our FY25E shipmentforecasts (HLS: +5% Yoy/ HCM + ~8% Yoy). Sunny continues focusing onimproving product mix which would benefit both ASP and GM in themedium term, mainly driven by top-tier clients’ flagship model with AIfeatures. Management remains positive on long term prospects (incl.variableaperture,hybrid lens,OIS and sensor-shift stabilization),meanwhile AI technology and foldables would lead the growth of high-endsmartphones and promote a new round of replacementcycle in themedium term. Founded in1984,Sunny Optical(SO)is a leadingintegrated optical products manufacturer mainly fordigitalcameraandhandset.Thecompanydominatesin China handset market with~50%market share.It focuses heavily on domestic OEMs(Huawei,Vivo, Oppo, XIaomi), with customers inKorea (Samsung) and Japan (Sony,Panasonic andNikon). Sources:Bloomberg, CIRL Sunny’soptical components and optoelectronics’GM came in at31.0%/10.6%respectively.Optical components’ GMstayed above30%levelfor the4thconsecutiveHoH despite a 0.8ppts Yoy drop, wecontinuetobelieve Sunny benefit from the recovery in premium smartphone market,which droveupboth ASPand GMin the long run, meanwhile improvedyield rate also benefitsHCM’s GM. ManagementguidedFY25EHLS to besimilar to 1H25, while HCMGMsticked to FY25E guidance at 8-10%. XRrelated revenuegrew21.1%Yoy to ~RMB1.2bn and took up6.1%of total revenue (vs. 1.6%/3.6%6.2%/5.9%/6.7%in FY20-FY24), thanks to explosive smart glasses market.Sunnycurrently serves >30 AI glass customers andmaintainsglobal leading market share inoptical display and imaging modules.Sunnysticked to its flattish XRrevenuegrowthin FY25E,as VR growth to be offset by decent AI/AR growth. Automotive products:Strong CCM order book pavesway for futuregrowth; Vehiclerelated products (incl. both VLS+ vehicle camera modules) sales rose18.2%Yoy to RMB3,400mn andaccounted for~17.3% of total revenue(vs.7.9%/12.4%/16.7%/16.0%in FY21-FY24),on the back of VLS shipmentgrew~21.7% Yoy to64.7mnunits.Sunnyguidedautomotive revenue growth would be >20% in FY25E, we expect tobe driven by both VLS &auto CCMshipmentgrowth, together with ASP upside,maintainedFY25E VLS shipmenttogrow15-20% (vs. +10-15%VLS shipment guidance in FY24)Yoy,driven by pixel migration and higher ADAS densityper car. Sunny’s7M25shipmentwasahead of ourFY25E shipmentforecastandarrived at ~76.1mnunits(+22.6%Yoy,~64% ofFY25Eof our forecasts, vs.~60% on average in FY23-FY24), we model VLS shipment to growmid-teens in FY25E. Sunny’sautomotivebusinessoutlookremains upbeat,driven byproject wins, andincreasing no. of cam adoptionaccompanied by more compactdesign(e.g.COBpackagingtechnologyon automotive CCM)with added value (e.g.active defogging, de-ice and dirt removal), pixel migration etc.Sunnycontinued to deepen its strategic ecologicalcooperation with global mainstream intelligent driving platform providers such as Horizon Robotics(9660.HK),Qualcomm(QCOM US), Mobileye(MBLY US)and NVIDIA(NVDA US), and continued to expa

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