商业模式转型带来的利润空间持续不利；维持持有

Marginheadwinds persistfrombusinessmodeltransition;Maintain HOLD Maxscend released 2Q25 results.RevenuewasRMB948mnin 2Q25, up 25%QoQfrom a low basein1Q butdown 13% YoY, reflecting continuedsoftnessinend-marketdemand and intensified competition.During the period,GPMfellto27% (-4ppt/-14ppt vs. 1Q25/2Q24)in 2Q25, missing BBGconsensusestimatesof 34%, due to1)ongoingprice pressure,2)impactfromdepreciation,and3)lower-than-expectedfabutilization. Net losswidenedto RMB101mnin 2Q (NLM:-11%)from-RMB47mn in 1Q(NLM:-6%). We cut our 2025/26E revenueforecasts by 21%/22%to reflectweaker-than-expected demandandpersistentpricingpressure. We also lower GPM projections by 9ppts/7pptsto 32%/37%in2025/26E,factoringin near-termmargin headwinds fromelevateddepreciation.Maintain HOLDwithTPofRMB81.5. Target PriceRMB81.50(Previous TPRMB82.00)Up/Downside(3.8%)Current PriceRMB84.73 ChinaSemiconductors Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Revenuedeclined on soft demand,while product development progressstayedintact.China’ssmartphone shipment grew 3.3% YoY in1Q25on government subsidiesbutdecreased 4%/4% YoY/QoQin 2Qasdemand fell.The weak recovery in market demand(2025 smartphoneshipmenttogrowby0.6%/1.9% YoY, perIDC/Counterpoint)andslower-than-expected industry consolidationweighed onMaxscend’s performance.1H25 salesdropped 25% YoY,althoughRF modulesnowaccounted for44%oftotalrevenue, up from36%/42% inFY23/24. This shiftdemonstratesthecompany’s progress inproductdevelopment(i.e.,L-PAMiD,equippedwithin-house MAX-SAW,reflectingafully localizedsupply chain). We expectmodule revenue toexceed50%of total salesin 2027E,aligningwithindustrymodularizationand localization trends.However, without a strong reboundin demand,we expectMaxscend’s overall revenue to decreaseby9% in2025E.Marginheadwinds persist.Maxscend booked a D&A expense of Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data RMB323mn in 1H25,up22% YoY from RMB265mn in 1H24.Althoughdepreciationgrowthmayhavepeaked, absolute expenseis expected toremain elevatedin the near term as thecompany rampsupits12-inch IPDline (1H25 capacity:5kwm).Wethinkimprovedfab utilization across the 6-inch and 12-inch linesshouldhelp ease marginpressure over time.Weexpect overall GPMto be32% in 2025, given ongoingmargin erosionasfabrampsup.Maintain HOLD.Wesee2025-26Eastransitioningyearsfor Maxscend.Our newTP is based on 45x 2026EEV/EBITDA(vs. prior45x2026EP/E),slightlyhigher than 0.5-SD below 5-year historical avg.of44x,reflectingongoingbusinessmodel shift toward fab-lite/IDM.WhileMaxscend iswell-positionedin the RFFE market and China’s localization,we thinkitsmarginrecovery may takeanotheryear.Upsidecatalysts: stronger-than-expectedrecovery, acceleratedlocalization. Potential downsiderisks: slower capacityramp-up, R&Ddelays. Source: FactSet Source:Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates times Source:Bloomberg,CMBIGMestimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of thisresearch report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the codeof conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s)covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report.CMBIGM Ratings BUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited OUTPERFORMMARKET-PERFORMUNDERPERFORM Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852)3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclo