Total U.S. corn supply for 2017/18 is projected at 16.4 billion bushels, compared with 16.9 billion in 2016/17. Corn acreage is projected at 90.0 acres, down 4 million from last year. Corn food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use in 2017/18 is projected 80 million bushels over last year at 7.0 billion, with increases in corn for ethanol, high fructose corn syrup, and starch. This increase is offset by a 75-million-bushel decrease in projected feed and residual to5.40 billion. Exports are projected down 350 million bushels to 1.9 billion for total use at 14.3 billion. Ending stocks, while still high, are down 185 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The forecast 2017/18 average price received by farmers is unchanged at $3.40 per bushel. Coarse grain production is forecast to be lower than use, as declining prices in 2016/17 are expected to encourage coarse grain consumption, though about half of the increase in use is projected for China. World coarse grain ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected down 15 percent from a year earlier, with corn stocks taking the lead in total decline. Global corn ending stocks are expected to fall, the first year-over-year drop since 2010/11 and the lowest absolute level since 2013/14. The largest stock decline is forecast for China and, to a lesser extent, for the United States. Feed Outlook Tom Capehart tcapehart@ers.usda.gov Olga Liefert oliefert@ers.usda.gov First Forecast for 2017/18 Lowers Corn Supply and Use Economic Research Service Situation and Outlook FDS-17e May 12, 2017 The next release is June 13, 2017. -- ------------ Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board. Feed Grain Supplies Lower But Still Second Highest on Record Projected U.S. 2017/18 feed grain supplies are 4 percent below last year’s at 435.7 million metric tons but are still the second highest ever after the 2016 crop. Beginning stocks are higher than those in 2016/17, at 62.3 million tons, and imports are nearly unchanged. Production of 370.1 million tons is projected 32.1 million tons below last year. The smaller expected crop is partially due to a decline in yields and some producers switching to soybeans from corn in response to relatively low corn prices. Feed and Residual Use Projected U.S. 2017/18 feed and residual use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) and wheat is 146.9 million metric tons this month, 4.6 million lower than last year’s 151.5 million on a September-August marketing-year basis. Feed and residual per grain consuming animal unit (GCAU) is projected at 1.52 tons per GCAU, 0.06 tons below last year’s estimated 1.58 tons. Grain Consuming Animal Units Projected Higher Grain consuming animal units for 2017/18 are initially projected at 97.0 million units, compared with 96.0 million units last year, driven largely by increasing hog and poultry numbers. Feed and residual use per GCAU is projected at 1.51 tons per GCAU, 0.14 tons per GCAU lower than 2016/17. New-Crop Corn Production Forecast 7 percent Below Last Year, Supplies Down Projected U.S. 2017/18 corn production is down 7 percent from last year to 14,065 million bushels but is still the third highest ever after the 2016 and 2014 crops. Planted area is projected at 90.0 million acres, 4 million below last season. Harvested area, after adjusting for silage production and losses, is expected to reach 82.4 million 02468101214161887/88 1990/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 2002/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18Feed and residualExportsOther food, seed, and industrial usesEthanolEnding stocksFigure 1Note: Marketing years 2016/176 and 2017/18 are projected.Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE. U.S. corn utilizationBillion buDomestic Outlook 2 Feed Outlook / FDS-17e / May 12, 2017 Economic Research Service, USDA acres. A weather-adjusted trend yield (based on normal planting progress and summer weather) of 170.7 bushels per acre results in a 1,083-million bushel decline in crop size. Beginning stocks of 2,295 million bushels are the highest since 1988/89. Adding production and imports results in the second largest supply on record—16,410 million bushels. As of May 7, 47 percent of the crop had been planted in the major producing States according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Progress report. This is below the 5-year average of 52 percent and well short of last year's faster start when 61 percent was planted. In Iowa, the leading producing State, plantings were 52 percent complete, compared with the average of 55 percent. However, in the eastern Corn Belt, plantings were ahead of the normal pace in spite of recent heavy rains. Corn emergence is also behind normal. In the 18 States surveyed by NASS, 15 percent of the crop had emerged as of May 7, compared with 25 percent for the 2016 crop at this point. Average emergence for 2012-16 was 19 percent