中国AI：评估中国人工智能芯片的供需情况

中国半导体 China AI: Sizing the AI chip supply and demand in China 中国人工智能：评估中国人工智能芯片的供需情况 A key controversy for the China AI chip sector is how U.S. export controls will affect thedynamics of AI chip supply and demand, especially given the recent change in Nvidia H20export controls withpotential sales resumption. In this call, our objective is to quantify thesupply and demand dynamics of AI chips in China and evaluate their broader implications.Overall, we believe demand for AI chips in China remains strong, while both global anddomestic vendors are likely to face supply constraints throughout 2025. That said, therecent resumption of Nvidia’s chip sales to China could provide a positive boost for localCSP, helping to partially alleviate the current supply shortage. 中国人工智能芯片行业的一个关键争议是美国出口管制将如何影响人工智能芯片的供需动态，特别是考虑到英伟达H20出口管制的近期变化，以及潜在的销售额恢复。在此次通话中，我们的目标是量化中国人工智能芯片的供需动态，并评估其更广泛的影响。总体而言，我们认为中国对人工智能芯片的需求仍然强劲，而全球和国内供应商在整个2025年都可能面临供应限制。话虽如此，近期英伟达对中国芯片销售的恢复可能会为当地CSP提供积极的提升，帮助部分缓解当前的供应短缺。 林庆元博士+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com 斯塔西・A・拉斯冈博士+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com 朱
Robin+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Robin Zhu+852 2123 2659robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Demand for AI chips is strong, supply is likely still constrained in CY25 even afterthe H20 sales resumption (Exhibit 2).Prior to the initial ban on H20 chips in China, weprojected that China’s AI chip demand in CY25 would reach $39.5 bn, with 37% fromdomestic vendors. We estimated the ban would reduce H20 sales in CY25 by ~$16.8 bn.However, given that Nvidia would have only about 4 months to resume production and sales(accounting for necessary lead times), we assume roughly $10.5 bn of this lost volumecould be recaptured in CY25. Additionally, the new B30 chip is expected to contribute anextra $2.8 bn, with shipments set to begin in September. We also anticipate AMD couldsecure around $1 bn in sales, while domestic vendors are likely to retain the $1.5 bn inincremental sales generated by the H20 ban. Combined, these factors would bring totalAI chip supply in China to an estimated $37 bn in CY25—still resulting in a $2.5 bn supplyshortage, though significantly smaller than the initial $12.6 bn gap we projected (Exhibit 1).If Nvidia can further accelerate production resumption, there could be an additional $3 bnupside to its China sales in CY25. 对人工智能芯片的需求强劲，即使2025年H20销售恢复后，供应可能仍然受限（图2）。在中国对H20芯片实施初步禁令之前，我们预计2025年中国对人工智能芯片的需求将达到395亿美元，其中37%来自国内供应商。我们估计禁令将使2025年H20销售额减少~$168亿美元。然而，考虑到英伟达只有大约4个月的时间恢复生产和销售（考虑到必要的提前期），我们假设这失去的约105亿美元中的这部分可以在2025年收回。此外，新的B30芯片预计将额外贡献28亿美元，出货量定于9月开始。我们还预计AMD可以获得约10亿美元的销售额，而国内供应商可能会保留H20禁令产生的15亿美元增量销售额。综合这些因素，这些因素将使2025年中国人工智能芯片的总供应量估计达到370亿美元——仍然导致25亿美元的供应短缺，尽管比我们最初预测的126亿美元差距要小得多（图1）。如果英伟达能够进一步加快生产恢复，2025年中国销售额可能会有额外的30亿美元的上行空间。 范
Boris+852 2123 2617boris.van@bernsteinsg.com Boris Van+852 2123 2617boris.van@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui+852 2123 2694zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com 崔
郑v1zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com 马
Francisv1francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com 肖
Alrickv1alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com H20销售恢复将使本地云服务提供商和更广泛的互联网公司受益。我们的渠道调查显示，字节跳动、阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度在中国是H20芯片的顶级采购商（展品4），占其2024年总需求的80%+。我们预计它们将在H20恢复后继续成为大买家，并预计其他云服务提供商和互联网公司（例如快手）也将获得准入，并减少其人工智能计划中的约束问题。此外，我们的调查表明，尽管B30芯片（在H20销售恢复前）的规格较低，~50%的ASP降低导致其与H20的ROI相似，因此大型互联网公司仍对其保持浓厚兴趣，潜在订单接近100万单位。然而，受供应链交付时间限制，2025年可能会出现一些短期供应短缺，需要通过与国内外数据中心签订租赁协议来缓解。 Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Arpad
von
Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com The H20 sales resumption would benefit local CSPs and broader internet players.Our channel checks reveal that Bytedance, Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu rank as the toppurchasers of H20 chips in China (Exhibit 4), accounting for 80%+ of its total demand in2024. We expect them to continue to be large buyers once H20 resumes and expect otherCSPs and internet companies (e.g., Kuaishou) will also gain access and reduce constraintissues around their AI initiatives. Additionally, our checks indicate that despite the B30 chip(before H20 sales resumption) featuring lower specs, ~50% lower ASP lead to similar ROIvs H20, as a result large internet companies maintain strong interest in it with potentialorders nearing 1 million units. However, constrained supply chain lead times are likely toresult in some short-term supply shortages in CY25 that needed to be mitigated throughleasing arrangements with either domestic and global data centers. Domestic AI chip vendors are still expected to take share from NVDA/AMD,reaching ~55% self-sufficiency by 2027 (Exhibit 6).U.S. export controls have created 国内人工智能芯片厂商仍有望从英伟达/AMD手中夺取市场份额，到2027年将达到~555%的自主率（图6）。美国出口管制为国内人工智能芯片厂商创造了独特的机会，因为它们无需与全球最先进的产品竞争。我们预计，中国人工智能芯片市场的本地化率将从2023年的17%跃升至2027年的55%，这得益于本地芯片性能的持续提升和DeepSeek之后国内7纳米生产能力的快速扩张。随着这一趋势，到2027