U_S_详细信息_价格_影响_第6部分_新闻_价格_价格_涨价

TariffImpact Part 6: NewTariffRates Now Imply MSD/HSD PriceIncreases U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel & FootwearNEUTRAL We update our proprietaryTariffQuikCalc Model for the newtariffseffective8/7/25. For our coverage, prices need to rise+5% (+3% prior) to fullyoffsetcost impact of +10% (+6%prior). For the subsegment US Apparel Retail, prices need torise in the HSD range. U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel &FootwearAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.comBCI, US Paul Kearney+1 212 526 1964paul.kearney@barclays.comBCI, US Reach out to request our proprietaryTariffQuikCalc Model here. TariffImpact Part 6: Updated Impact Implies MSD to HSD Price Increase.We update ourproprietaryTariffQuikCalc Model for the newtariffrateseffective8/7/25. For our broad coverageuniverse, average prices need to rise +5% (vs. +3% prior) to fullyoffsetthetariffcost impact of+10% (vs. +6% prior). However, drilling down to the subsegment US Department Store & ApparelRetail, average prices need to increase in the HSD range to fullyoffsetnewtariffs.We use ourproprietaryTariffQuikCalc Model (Figure 6) to reflect the updated ReciprocalTariffrates for allcountries. China is unchanged at 30% (originally announced in May). Please see theassumptions for newtariffrates (Figure 3). For the Apparel, Accessory, and Footwear sectors,due to their primary manufacturing base in Southeast Asia, we now assume a 15% minimumtariffin this region, while in Rest of World (outside of Southeast Asia), we assume a 10%minimumtariffunless otherwise specified. Michael Vu+1 212 526 9568michael.vu@barclays.comBCI, US Angus Kelleher+1 212 526 0081angus.kelleherferguson@barclays.comBCI, US CY25 and holiday likely to be minimallyaffectedby newtariffrates; CY1H26 will see thegreater impact from incrementaltariff.We also note the grace period for goods shippedbefore August 7th and entering the United States before October 5th, 2025, as these goods willnot be subject to the newtariffrates, but rather the pre-existing rates. Most US retailers shouldhave the vast majority of their holiday goods in by that deadline. Thus the carryover impact ofnewtariffswill be in CY1H26, giving retailerssufficienttime to adjust pricing higher for spring2026. For our coverage universe, Average Unit Retail ("AUR") increase rises to +5.2% tooffsetAverage Unit Cost ("AUC") increase of +10.2%.For most of our coverage, pricing actions areonly just beginning to show up in the market beginning in early July. Our checks show broadimplementation of price hikes align with late July/early August back-to-school floor sets. Withnewtariffs,we expect more price increases building into Holiday and, even more so, into spring2026. Initial margin impacts have already begun at the tail end of 2Q25 with full impact to 2H25.As higher-cost inventory fully flows through, margin pressure should become more visible in Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 57.Completed: 08-Aug-25, 21:26 GMTReleased: 11-Aug-25, 04:10 GMTRestricted - External 2H25 and into 2026 – especially if pricing actions are not accepted or lead to volume declines.Drilling down to the subsegment US Department Store & Apparel Retail, average prices need toincrease in the HSD range to fullyoffsetnewtariffs.Off-Priceis relatively insulated with modestLSD increases. TariffQuikCalc Model & Guide.OurTariffQuikCalc Modelis available upon requestto quicklycalculate the impact to a retailer's cost, margins, and earnings, and, most importantly, todetermine the percent increase in prices needed to fullyoffsetthetariff.We have run thisanalysis on our coverage, but this is only a small sample of the companies across our sector andbeyond that areaffected.OurTariffQuikCalc Model estimates the annual, unmitigated grosstariffdollar amount and basis point impact relative to pre-April 2, 2025, income statements. Read the research.Prior notes have a full explanation of the methodology, including:TariffImpact Part 5: China 90-Day Pause Implies Only LSD Price Increase - 14 May 2025TariffImpact Part 4: 90-Day Pause on China ReciprocalTariffs- 14 Apr 2025TariffImpact Part 3: Impact on FY25E and FY26E - 9 Apr 2025TariffImpact Part 2: Adrienne'sTariffQuikCalc Model & Guide - 4 Apr 2025AssessingTariffImpact: Part 1 - 15 Nov 2024 Summary Table: 8/7/25TariffRate Scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Table of Assumed NewTariffRatesEffective8/7/25. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Estimated TotalTariffRate by Company. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9U.S. Sales Exposure by Company. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .