评估巴基斯坦家庭的碳排放：对碳税政策的影响-技术说明

Technical Note © 2025The World Bank1818H StreetNW, Washington,DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Disclaimer This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of theExecutive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does notguarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use theinformation, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations,links/footnotes, and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of TheWorld Bank concerning the legal status of any territoryor the endorsement or acceptance of suchboundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the viewsexpressed by those authors or the content of their works. Assessing Carbon Emissions in Pakistani Households:Implications for Carbon Tax Policy Oscar Barriga-CabanillasandChristina Wieser1 Summary AsPakistan pursues its climate commitments, carbon pricing offers a market-based tool to align economicincentives with environmental goals.This noteexaminesPakistan's carbon emission profile, currentemissionlevels, and their projectedincreasesas the country transitions to ahighermiddle-incomestatus.Usingthelatest household survey available, it imputes carbon content to the consumption basketof Pakistani households and discusses the direct, indirect, and behavioral channels affected by carbontaxation. Resultsreveal stark carbon consumption disparities across income levels, with top-decile householdsgenerating four times more carbon thantheirbottom-decile counterparts. Non-food items constitute thelargest carbon source (44-50percent) across all income bands, while urban households exceed rural onesby approximately one-third intheiroverall carbon footprint, a result driven byboth higher expenditurelevels and consumption of more carbon-intensive goods. These patterns create both challenges andopportunities for policy design. The noteargues that taxing carbonshould be part ofa comprehensive policy addressingthe actualcarbonpricein the economy, which includesphasing out of energy subsidies that lowerthe cost of carbonemissions—at a high fiscal cost.Carbon pricing emerges as apolicy with apotential "double dividend"that cansimultaneously reduceemissionsandgeneratesubstantial fiscal resources for developmentinitiatives or tax burden reduction elsewhere in the economy. However, implementation success hinges onaddressing distributional effects, as analysis shows lower-income households would primarily experienceimpacts through indirect price increases in essential goods rather than through direct energy costs.Thenote emphasizes the importance of considering these channels when designing policies to compensatevulnerablehouseholds impacted by carbon taxation. International examplesshowcasethat carefully designed revenue recyclingpolicies, including targetedrebates and cash transfers, can effectively mitigate regressive impacts on vulnerable populations.Theevidence suggests that with proper design and implementation, Pakistan can develop carbon taxationstrategies that reduce emissions, generate fiscal resources, and maintain equity across its population—creating a framework for sustainable economic development in an increasingly carbon-constrained globaleconomy. Introduction As Pakistan pursues its climate commitments, carbon pricing offers a market-based tool to align economicincentives with environmental goals. This note examines Pakistan's carbon emission profile, currentemission levels, and their projected increases as the country transitions to a higher middle-income status.Using the latest household survey available, it imputes carbon content to the consumption basket ofPakistani households and discusses the direct, indirect, and behavioral channels affected by carbontaxation.This analysis serves as a foundation for understanding how carbon policies might impacthousehold welfare and for designing compensatory measures for vulnerable populations affected bycarbon taxation. Pakistan ranks among the top 10countries worldwide most affected by climate change and naturaldisasters. These challenges have significant implications for Pakistan's growth and equity, requiring thecountry to establish a comprehensive adaptation agenda (World Bank, 2022).Pakistan's Climate andDevelopment Report demonstrates how climate-related shocks can have highly negative consequenceson the country's natural and human capital, putting pressure on food production, human health, and laborproductivity.2 TheUN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol, and the ParisAgreement, both of whichPakistan h