在强劲的销售势头下实现可持续利润

Leapmotor (9863 HK) Sustainable profit ahead on strong sales momentum Target PriceHK$80.00(Previous TPHK$72.00)Up/Downside17.4%Current PriceHK$68.15 Maintain BUY.Leapmotorposted anet profit of RMB163mn in 2Q25,beatingour forecast by RMB115mn.We expect its strong sales momentum to continuethroughout FY26E, aided by newmodelsrolloutand overseasproduction.TheB01sedan could be well received given management’s 3Q25 sales volumeguidance. The success ofthe C16 also gives us more confidence in itsupcoming D-series models.We raise our FY25-26E net profit forecasts by220%/129%to RMB927mn/3.3bn, respectively, amid greater economies ofscale and more meaningful contribution from high-margin other revenue. China Auto Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk 2Q25earningsbeat on higher GPM and other income.Leapmotor’s2Q25 revenue rose 42% QoQ to RMB14.2bn,in line with ourpriorforecast.Gross margin in 2Q25 only fell 1.3ppts QoQ to 13.6% despite widerdiscountsamid model transition and prolonged price war,0.9pptsstrongerthan our estimates.Leapmotor achieved a positive operating profit ofRMB61mnin 2Q25, the first time in history, partially aided by governmentgrants.Although we projected a positive net profit in 2Q25, it still beat ourforecast by RMB115mn. Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hk Stock Data Strong sales momentum throughout FY26E. Management’s guidance of170,000-180,000 units in 3Q25,ora monthly volume of60,000-65,000 unitsin Aug-Sep,wasstronger than ourpriorexpectation.We raise our FY25Esales volume forecastby50,000units to 0.6mn units, following such strongsales momentum.The newD-seriesSUVisscheduledto debut in Oct 2025andstartdeliveries in 1Q26, which is earlier than wehadexpected.ThesuccessoftheC16, a typical example to showcase Leapmotor’s value-for-money brand image,givesus more confidenceinits D-series models.Weprojectits strong salesvolume growth to continue in FY26E with our newforecast of 0.9mn units (+50% YoY), as overseas sales volume could alsodouble YoY in FY26E with local production in Malaysia and Europe. Sustainable profit to start from FY25E.We raise our FY25E GPMforecastby 1.6ppts to 14.5%, following the beat in 2Q25. We believe greatereconomies of scale and more meaningful high-margin other income (CO2credits andincome from strategiccooperationwith other automakers) couldcontinue to drive GPM higherin 2H25E and FY26E.Werevise up ourFY25E net profitforecastby 220% to RMB927mn.We also project FY26Enet profit to surge257% YoY to RMB3.3bn in FY26E. Valuation/Key risks.Wemaintainour BUY rating and raise target pricefrom HK$72.00 to HK$80.00, based on 1.1xourFY26E P/S (prior 1.5xFY25E P/S).Our target price also corresponds to a 30x FY26E P/Eand 22xFY27E P/E. We are of the view that such target P/Es are justified given itshigh growth potential.Keyrisks include lower sales volume/gross marginthan we expect, as well as a sector de-rating. Source: FactSet Related Report“Leapmotor (9863 HK)-2Q25 earningspreview and 2H25 outlook”-11 Jul2025 “Leapmotor (9863 HK)-More positiveon FY25E after 1Q25 beat”-20 May2025 Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report,in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of hisor her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conductissued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel:(852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal Ma