中国经济：疲弱数据可能是好消息

CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | EconomicPerspectives China Economy Weakdata might be good news Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’seconomy showed broad-based moderation in July,with slumpingproperty sales and the fading boost from the trade-in scheme dragging onconsumption, while weakening exports delivery value and the anti-involutioncampaignare set to weigh on manufacturing output and investment. New andsecond-hand housing sales further contracted, with weakness most pronouncedin first-tier cities. Retail sales and industrial output both softened. FAI saw its firstYoY decline since Nov 2021, dragged down by contracting property development,manufacturing and infrastructure investment. The economic slowdown increasesthe possibility of additional demand stimulus in 4Q25. We expect a further10 bpsLPR cut and 50 bps RRR cutand expanding fiscal support to households andconsumers. Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Propertysector remained its deep contraction.The decline ofgross floorarea (GFA) sold forcommercialbuildingdroppedto-4% in 7M25 from-3.5%in Juneaccording to NBS, while residence GFA further dropped to-4.1% inJuly to432million m2in 7M25 from-3.7%.Contraction ofresidentialhousingstartnarrowedto-18.3% in7M25 at259million m2, back to the level in 2003-04.For new housing sales according to market data in first half of Aug, YoYsales in30 major citiesrebounded to-11.9% compared to-20.6% in July.Tier-1 cities further softened to-31.4%, the biggest drop since Sep 2024,while tier-2 and 3cities showed narrowed declines.The sales recovery rateedged down to 35.9% in first half of Aug from 36.8%compared to 2018and19, close to the historic bottom at 37.1% in Sep 2024.Second-hand housingsalesalsomildly recovered, as YoY growth of 11 selective cities bounced upto-2.2% in first half of Aug from-8.8% inJuly. New andsecond-hand housingprices dipped further across all city tiers inJulydue to the weakening demand.The softening propertymarket pointed to moderating consumer demand in2H25, as we might see notable slowdown in housing-related durable goodssales. Source:Wind, CMBIGM Retail salesfurther softenedwith trade-in schemerunning out of steam.Retail sales growthmoderatedto3.7% in Julyfrom4.8%in June, missingmarket consensusof4.9%.Durables under the trade-in scheme recorded amarked slowdown, led by autos, which fell to-1.5% in July from 4.6% in June—the firstmonthlycontraction since August 2024.Home appliance, cultural& officeproductsand furnitureeased to28.7%, 13.8% and 20.6% in July from32.4%, 24.4% and28.7%.By contrast, telecom equipment remained firm,edging up from 13.9% to 14.9%, supported by its later inclusion in the schemein early 2025.Catering service remainedsubdued at 1.1% in July, whilerumours suggestedpossibleloosening on stringent wining and diningban forgovernment employees. We have seena notable slowdowninthe secondhalf of the yearas thestrong recoverydriven by the expansion of trade-inschemesappears to have pulled forward future demand.Looking forward,retail salesmay moderate to 3.8% in 2H25from 5% in 1H25,bringing full-year growth to around 4.5%. Source:Wind, CMBIGM FAIsaw the first monthly contraction since 4Q21.Total FAI growthdropped to1.6%in 7M25 from 2.8% in 6M25,notably missing marketexpectationsof2.7%, while its monthly YoY dropped to-5.2% in July from0.5%, the first contraction since Nov 2021.The moderation was broad-basedas amore moderate fiscal expansion in 2H relative to 2024 and thegovernment’s anti-involution competition campaign weighed on infrastructureand manufacturing investment.Manufacturing FAIdropped to-0.3% in Julyfrom5.1%. Sectors includingchemicalproducts,non-ferrous metals smelting& pressing, general&specialequip, autoandcomputer & electronicssawnotable moderation.Infrastructure FAIalso declined to-1.9% in July from5.3%.Property development investment furthercontracted to-17.2% inJuly from-12.9%,ashousing market remained over-supply.Looking forward, FAIgrowth might mildlymoderatefrom 3.2% in 2024 to2% in 2025due tocontractingproperty development investmentand moderating manufacturingand infrastructure investment. Manufacturingand infrastructure investmentgrowth is likely to fall from 9.2% and 9.2% in 2024 to6.8% and7.5% in 2025. Industrial outputmoderated.VAIO growtheased to 5.7% in July form6.8%,slightly belowmarket consensusof5.8%.Miningmoderated to 5% in Julyfrom6.1%while public utility picked up to 3.3% from 1.8%.VAIO ofmanufacturingdropped to 6.2% from 7.4%as some enterprises scaled backproduction.Textile,rubber & plastic product,non-ferrous metal smelting &pressing, metal product and auto notably slowed down,whileferrous metal,general purposeequipment, other transportequipmentpicked up.Industrialexport delivery value notablymoderated,even as export value ofgoods percustoms data rebounded—reflecting the deployment of inventory to fulfillorders and muted expectations for future demand.Growth of service outpu