galderma: 启动覆盖，评级为增持，目标价133瑞士法郎

Initiate OW: Finding Nemo Initiating Coverage We initiate coverage of GALD with an OW rating and CHF 133PT, given: 1) strong Nemluvio launch with $2.6bn potential(BARCe); 2) potential USsoftnessin injectable aestheticscould beoffsetby geo expansion; 3) possible further interestfrom L'Oréal; 4)tariffrisks generally manageable. GALD.S/GALD SEOVERWEIGHTfrom Not Rated European Pharmaceuticals& Life SciencesNEUTRALUnchanged Listen Nemluvio: A strong launch with blockbuster potential.Galderma's recent launch ofNemluvio has demonstrated early commercial strength, capturing significant market share(~30% NTRx) in prurigo nodularis (PN) with promising initial uptake in the larger atopicdermatitis (AD) indication. Our KOL checks reflect optimism for Nemluvio in PN, with ADopportunity largely for Dupixent-experienced patients. Physician enthusiasm (survey byFirstWord) and strong initial prescription data (IQVIA) underpin our confidence in the drug'sblockbuster potential, though we acknowledge its position in AD would require furthervalidation. Given Nemluvio’sdifferentiatedclinical profile with rapid itching relief, we expectrapid market adoption and estimate $2.6bn peak sales for Nemluvio in 2032, well above thecompany's >$2bn guidance. In the near term, we are constructive on Nemluvio's performance in2Q25 (BARCe $66mn vs. BBG cons. at $55mn) and FY25 (BARCe $269mn vs. cons. at $239mn),and see the upcoming 2Q25 earnings (24 July) as a potential positive catalyst. Injectable Aesthetics: Resilient outlook but not without risks; potential USsoftnesscouldbeoffsetby geo expansion.Galderma's aesthetics segment in the US continues to displayresilience, supported by stable to slightly growing market conditions in 2025, as indicated byour survey. The company’seffectiveexecution and ongoing geographic footprint expansion,particularly into robust international markets (e.g., China, India), provides a growth lever. Thecontinued launch of Relfydess (next-gen neuromodulator, EU approved, US refile in 2025) couldfurther sustain and potentially accelerate revenue momentum, though our survey suggestsmany physicians are still unfamiliar with this product. We currently model 10.8% sales CAGR in2023-27E (vs. BBG cons. at 10.6%). However, we acknowledge that inherent market andmacroeconomic risks in the US couldaffectGALD's performance. European Pharmaceuticals & LifeSciences Yihan Li, PhD+44 (0)20 3555 3563yihan.li@barclays.comBarclays, UK What if L'Oréal were to acquire a bigger stake in Galderma?On 5 Aug 2024 L'Oréal andGalderma announced a strategic partnership in which L'Oréal (covered by Patrick Folan)acquired a 10% stake in Galderma from the EQT-led consortium that was Galderma's majority Emily Field, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6263emily.field@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Shirley Chen, PhD+44 (0)20 7773 2109shirley.chen@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 56.Completed: 07-Jul-25, 14:48 GMTReleased: 07-Jul-25, 15:45 GMTRestricted - External owner, at an (undisclosed) premium to the then market price. We see this potentially as only afirst step. We interpret L'Oréal's repeated comments on the call at the time the deal wasannounced about "keeping future options open" as signalling the possibility of subsequentincreases in the Galderma stake. We don't think anything is likely in the short term, but forillustrative purposes show that L'Oréal would havesufficientheadroom of €32.1bn (CHF30.1bn)based on 2x net debt / EBITDA for a hypothetical transaction closing at the end of 2025, or€42.9bn (CHF40.35bn) headroom at 3x net debt / EBITDA, before any incremental EBITDA fromsuch a transaction. This lookssufficientfor what L'Oréal management could do in the context ofGalderma's market cap. Modest impact from potential Pharmatariffs;MFN risks less concerning for GALD.Whileuncertainties aroundtariffsand Most Favored Nation (MFN) policies remain a potentialoverhang for the sector, our analysis suggeststariffrisks are generally manageable for GALD,based on our illustrative analysis of a 25%tariffon Pharma1(MSD% drag on GALD’s EPS for2026-28E). Moreover, we view GALD as relatively insulated from MFN given its significantexposure to self-pay consumer aesthetics and skincare markets. Galderma’s diversifiedgeographic footprint and premium product positioning would provide additional protectionagainst potential adverse policy developments. Premium valuation just