加勒比地区的潜在增长和生产力

Potential Growth andProductivity in theCaribbean Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kilic Celik,and Masahiro Nishida WP/25/157 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025AUG IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Potential Growth and Productivity in the CaribbeanPrepared by Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kilic Celik, and Masahiro Nishida* Authorized for distribution by Christoph DuenwaldAugust2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. Weexamine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region. Our findings reveal abroad-based decline over time, driven by declining contributions from human capital and total factor productivity.Linking these factors to firm-level data, we identify significant scope for aggregate productivity gains through theefficient reallocation of resources between firms and the removal of firm-level structural obstacles. Addressingissues such as the cost and access to finance, workforce education, tax administration, and business licensingand permits are associated with higher aggregate welfare. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Amundsen, A., Chen, S., Guérin, P., Kilic Celik, S., and Nishida, M. (2025).Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper2025/157. Table of Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................2Related Literature.........................................................................................................................................................4Potential growth ......................................................................................................................................................4Misallocation and structural obstacles ....................................................................................................................5Trends and Prospects of Potential Growth................................................................................................................7Insights from growth forecasts ................................................................................................................................7Insights from a growth accounting exercise ..........................................................................................................10Results..................................................................................................................................................................12Evidence from Firm-level Data..................................................................................................................................15Overview ...............................................................................................................................................................15Model ....................................................................................................................................................................15Data ......................................................................................................................................................................18Results..................................................................................................................................................................19Conclusion..................................................................................................................................................................33Appendix.....................................................................................................................................................................34References..................................................................................................................................................................43 FIGURES Figure 1a & Figure 1b ........................................................................................................................................................................2Figure 2a & Figure 2b ........................................................................................................................................................................8Figure 3a & Figure 3b ..