2025年日本贷款人调查报告

JAPAN2025 Lender Survey REPORT ExecutiveSummary Financing environment remains strong despite rising uncertainty –The policy rate in Japan was raised last year for the first time in over a decade, but thefinancing environment for real estate remains accommodative. Bank of Japan (BoJ)data show outstanding loan volume to the real estate sector by Japanese financialinstitutions (includes domestic banks, Shinkin banks, and other financial institutions)reached JPY 137 trillion as of the end of March 2025, up 6% from the end of theprevious fiscal year. Some JPY 16 trillion of this volume was extended to specialpurpose companies (SPCs) for real estate securitization, an increase of 18% y-o-y(Figure 1). While lending for SPCs slowed temporarily in H1 2024, it surged once againfrom H2 2025. The BoJ’s Tankan Survey showed the diffusion index (DI) for lendingconditions to the real estate sector at +12 for large companies (+1 q-o-q) and at +8 forsmall and mid-sized companies (-1 q-o-q) as of March 2025, providing further evidenceof the accommodative nature of the current financing environment. –CBRE recently carried out its 2025 Japan Lender Survey, an annualsurvey of companies providing real estate loans. Conducted in Apriland May of this year, the survey asked respondents about the loansextended during the 2024 fiscal year (FY 2024, which in Japan runsfrom April 2024 to March 2025), and their expectations for FY 2025.Despite the survey being carried out during a period of increaseduncertainty following the announcement of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, nomajor changes were observed in terms of lending attitudes, furtherunderscoring the fact that the lending environment remains generallyaccommodative. –The percentage of respondents indicating that 100% of their loanvolume was for new acquisitions in FY 2024 reached 32% for seniorlenders, an increase from the previous year. While the equivalentfigure for mezzanine lenders fell from 50% to 45%, this still indicatesstrong support for new real estate acquisitions. In terms of lendingconditions, required spreads remained stable for senior lenders, butrose for mezzanine lenders. As was the case last year, residentialproperties remained the most preferred asset type. –Approximately half of surveyed senior lenders indicated that theyexpected their new loan volume in FY 2025 to exceed that of FY 2024,with the remaining half projecting no change. Among mezzaninelenders,35%anticipated an increase in loan volume,downsignificantly from the 60% figure reported the previous year. Whenasked to forecast spreads over the next year, the percentage ofrespondents projecting a rise increased from the previous year forboth senior and mezzanine lenders. However, the consensus was thatany increase would be within the range of 25 bps. –Among anticipated risk factors,rising interest rates remaineduppermost in the minds of lenders. However, this concern wasindicated by just 60% of respondents, well down from roughly 80%last year. Concerns over economic recession were mentioned bymore respondents than a year ago. The general understanding amonglenders was that future interest rate rises will be gradual, with one ortwo additional interest rate hikes expected for FY 2025. Survey Overview –Purpose: To analyze lenders’ approach to real estate financing–Target: Parties engaged in non-recourse loans for real estate–Survey period: April 2025 to May 2025–Total number of respondents: 30 companies–Respondent companies (in random order):Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, Tokyo BranchThe Hokuriku Bank, Ltd.Star Asia Investment Management Co., Ltd.TOPAZ CAPITAL, INC.MUFG Bank, Ltd.Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, LimitedYamaguchi Financial Group, Inc.Chugoku Bank, Ltd.Mizuho Leasing Company, LimitedKiraboshi Bank, Ltd.Societe Generale, Tokyo BranchThe Shoko Chukin Bank，Ltd.Mitsubishi HC Capital Realty Inc.The ChibaBank, Ltd.Mizuho Bank, Ltd.Fuyo General Lease Co., Ltd.Resona Bank, LimitedSuruga Bank Ltd.MetLife Insurance K.K.ORIX Bank CorporationNorth Pacific Bank, Ltd.NCS RE Capital LimitedSBI Shinsei Bank, LimitedThe Bank of Fukuoka, Ltd.Diamond Realty Management Inc.(And 5 other companies) 01 Lenders’ Attitudes Lending activity in FY 2024 Lenders continue to actively fund new acquisitions When asked what percentage of their loans in FY 2024 were for newacquisitions, 32% of senior lenders and 45% of mezzanine lenders said all(100%). This represented an increase from the previous year’s figure forsenior lenders (Figure 2). Considering the percentage of senior lendersresponding “81-90%” and “91-99%”, nearly 80% of senior lenders providedmore than 80% of their financing to new acquisitions in FY 2024. As for mezzanine lenders, the proportion of loans to new acquisitionsdeclined from the previous year. However, roughly 80% of respondents fromthis category still provided more than 80% of their financing to newacquisitions. No respondents to this year’s survey indicated that theyprovided 0% of th