遏制价格战的强劲政策势头；类似2022年的涨价故事

Strong policy momentum to curb price war; asimilarprice hikestorylike 2022 We believe the Chinese government’s aspiration topromote“anti-involution”,followed by the meeting held by the State Post Bureau with express deliveryoperators as well as the comments by NDRC last week to propose a revisionof the price law,will serve as a positive catalyst for the express delivery sectorover the coming 3-6 months.We see chancesforamoderateparcel ASPhikegoingforward,though not as strong as the uptrend in 2022 after thegovernment’s intervention. China Logistics Sector Wayne FUNG, CFA(852) 3900 0826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Governmentactionsto curb price war.On 29 Jul,the State Post Bureauheld ameeting with major express delivery operators to address the"involution" competition in the industry. The discussion also included howto tackleissues such as illegal charges forparcelpick-up in rural areas, aswell as to maintain the stability of theoverall express delivery network.Separately, NDRC mentioned during the press conference on 1 Aug thatthe authority will revise the price law to tackle price cut and dumping issues(no specific industry ismentioned). What happenedin2021-22?Back inmid-2021, the government steppedinwith anaim tohalt thetwo-year long cut-throatprice warin theexpressdeliveryindustry. At that time, seven authorities released an opinionaimingatprotectingthe interest of couriers. In Sep 2021,ZhejiangProvincialPeople’sCongress approved the regulation regarding the express deliveryindustry development, which stated thatexpress delivery operatorsare notallowed to offer service below cost levelwithout justifiablereasons(fordetails, pleaserefertoour note “Strong policy measures to reshape thecompetitive landscape; upgrade to Outperform”published in 2021(link)).Following all themeasuresin 2021, key operators’ parcel ASPsrebounded8-20% YoY in 2022. Related reports: J&T Express–Impressive parcel volumegrowth in SEA–9 Jul 2025 (link) ZTO-1Q25 earnings belowexpectation; further pricing pressure onparcel ahead–21 May 2025 (link) A potential sector rallyin the foreseeable future.We expect a moderateparcel hikethis time (not as strong as that in 2022), asthe profitability (interms of gross margin) at present is higher than that in 2021. Still, webelieve a moderatehikeis enough to reverse the market expectation(i.e.acontinuousdowntrend), which could trigger a sector rally. Trading at 14x2025EP/E(vs historical average of 22x),ZTOExpress(2025 HK / ZTOUS, BUY)isan attractive play,in our view. Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimates Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible forthe content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates(as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in ortrade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as anofficer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% overnext 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM HOLDSELLNOT RATED :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with therelevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsCMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 GardenRoad, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) ImportantDisclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual ev