三周期看烘焙龙头的价值重估

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！投资评级:买入(维持)基本数据2025-07-255收盘价(元)流通股本(亿股)每股净资产(元)总股本(亿股)最近12月市场表现分析师吴文德SAC证书编号：S0160523090004wuwd01@ctsec.com分析师黄欣培SAC证书编号：S0160525070004huangxp01@ctsec.com相关报告1.《收入增长有抓手，组织调整谋发展》2025-03-122.《2024年Q4如期修复，2025年步入改善通道》2025-01-223.《奶油持续放量，利润端略有拖累》2024-09-02-12%14%40%66%92%117%立高食品沪深300上证指数休闲食品 核心观点❖产效率，这也是盈利能力能够改善的核心驱动之一。享受此渠道红利。❖升。的相对竞争优势，公司有望步入稳健增长快车道。❖投资建议：对应PE 22/18/15x，维持公司“买入”评级。❖风险提示：盈利预测：[Table_FinchinaSimple]营业收入(百万元)收入增长率(%)归母净利润(百万元)净利润增长率(%)EPS(元)PEROE(%)PB 2023A2024A2025E3,4993,8354,44820.29.616.073268350-49.2266.930.70.431.592.07112.624.522.23.010.512.83.32.62.9 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准写在前面：否极泰来，周期共振...................................................................................................................51管理周期：事业部调整渐入佳境，回归产线强化供应链优势...........................................................61.1三大事业部合并调整，过程曲折，柳暗花明...................................................................................61.2重归制造本源，尽显龙头优势...........................................................................................................91.3精细化管理愈发高效，大单品战略提升规模效应.........................................................................102渠道周期：流量更迭，商超调改或是新机遇，传统渠道有望触底.................................................122.1商超调改或是下⼀渠道机遇，烘焙品类有望尽享红利.................................................................122.2会员商超具备灯塔效应，产品迭代推新重回高速增长.................................................................152.3流通饼店流量下降不改烘焙渗透率提升，餐饮等新渠道有望接力.............................................162.3.1烘焙市场持续扩容，消费场景和渠道多元特征显现.................................................................162.3.2应对渠道新变化，公司渠道先行，积极把握发展机会.............................................................182.3.3产品渠道适配度提升，小B拐点渐显，大B延续高增...........................................................193产品周期：奶油国产替代和升级逻辑仍强，烘焙回归规模单品效率提升.....................................203.1奶油赛道景气仍高，公司高性价比策略实现高增.........................................................................203.1.1奶油具备升级和国产替代逻辑，行业景气度高企.....................................................................203.1.2公司奶油产品多元发展，高性价比策略成效初显现.................................................................223.2烘焙产品系列化强化产线效能，品类创新突围行业竞争.............................................................243.2.1冷冻烘焙供给端竞争激烈，需求端仍具创新需求.....................................................................243.2.2他山之石，产品系列化大有可为.................................................................................................253.2.3创新是突围之道，公司综合竞争力强，有望领跑品类发展.....................................................273.3全产业链布局发力，烘焙综合产品服务商渐显.............................................................................284盈利预测与投资建议.............................................................................................................................304.1业务拆分：.........................................................................................................................................304.2投资建议：.........................................................................................................................................315风险提示.................................................................................................................................................31图1.公司正处在“管理、渠道和产品”三周期的拐点.................................................................................6图2.公司历史沿革.........................................................................................................................................7内容目录图表目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图3.公司于2022年下半年开始实行组织架构改革，2024年逐步进入常态化运作..............................7图4.公司营收近年来有所放缓，但仍维持增长态势.................................................................................8图5.产品结构变化，冷冻烘焙稳定，奶油占比提升.................................................................................8图6.渠道结构变化明显，直销占比不断提升.............................................................................................8图7.毛利率有所下降，净利率企稳回升.....................................................................................................9图8.销售费用率有所改善，管理费用率逐步下降.....................................................................................9图9.公司组织架构调整，以产线为核心，重归制造本源.......................................................................10图10.公司各品类毛利率：渠道结构变化致毛利率有所变化.................................................................11图11.管理费用率和销售费用率分季度有所优化.....................................................................................12图12.公司人均创收提升，创利有待改善.................................................................................................12图13.永辉超市门店调改后开业当日销售表现亮眼.................................................................................13图14.商超调改主要变化.............................................................................................................................13图15.商超调改利好品类品牌及ODM能力强的公司.............................................................................14图16.小红书产品推荐中烘焙类占比较高..................................................................................