金融衍生品研究

Certification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.com 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2The recent strength in coking coal and coke prices is not only driven byforward-looking market expectations but also supported by short-termsupply-demand imbalances. From the perspective of inventory across theindustrial chain, the transfer of ownershipfrom upstream to downstreamhas been relatively smooth. Due to earlier weakness in terminal demandand deep futures discounts to spot warehouse receipts, downstream playerslargely maintained a buy-as-needed strategy. This left inventories amongtraders and basis players relatively low, so when market sentiment beganto materialize, mid-and downstream restocking further fueled the pricerally.In addition, after a previous sharp correction, the revaluation of cokingcoal has provided upward momentum. With the June coal mine safetycampaign followed by July's emergence of "anti-involution" signals, bothmacro and micro factors have contributed toincreased price elasticity incoal and coke.Looking ahead, attention should remain on policy signals, the behavior offutures versus spot participants, and fundamental developments, all ofwhich could continue to impact price volatility—especially under theinfluence of recent position limits.Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Dual Drivers Push Prices to Limit-Up,But High-Level Correction Risks AccumulateOn Friday, the main ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts hit theirdaily limit-up (+7.01% to ¥6,166/ton for ferrosilicon, +8.02% to¥6,414/ton for silicomanganese), mainly driven by continued expectationsaround "anti-involution" macro policies. Silicomanganese was furtherboosted by sentiment from a leading manganese alloy producer symposiumadvocating energy conservation and market stabilization. However, sincesmall furnaces still account for a limited share of capacity andtechnological upgrades continue, the impact of capacity elimination maybe relatively minor. 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Ferrosilicon, as a high-energy-consuming industry, is more sensitive toanticipated policies targeting energy consumption and carbon emissions.Combined with active capital rotation, it became the leading force in therally.From a fundamental perspective, spot liquidity remains tight, and withsteel mill demand supporting the market, producer and warehouseinventories of both products have continued to decline. Still, riskspersist. Ferrosilicon faces high warehouse receipt pressure as deliveryapproaches, while silicomanganese must guard against potential restartsof southern production as profits recover.Particularly noteworthy is the sharp drop in coking coal and coke duringthe night session due to position limits, releasing a strong risk-offsignal. As sentiment spills over, the risk of a sharp correction in bothsilicon products at high levels increases significantly and should not beunderestimated.Chart1：Market SnapshotSource：iFind,GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURES ResearchCSI 300 Index Futures4147.0-0.48%SSE 50 Index Futures2815.4-0.58%CSI 500 Index Futures6269.6-0.02%CSI 1000 Index Futures6675.80.03%30Y T-bond Futures118.3-0.48%10Y T-bond Futures108.2-0.07%5Y T-bond Futures105.6-0.04%2Y T-bond Futures102.30.00%Market Snapshot 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分Open InterestChart2:Open Interest of IFSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart4:Open Interest of ICSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchNews Highlights:1. China on Sunday released a set of guidelines to boost consumption ofagricultural products, with efforts to optimize supply and stimulatedemand.These guidelines, jointly issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and RuralAffairs and nine other government departments, urge efforts to make themost effective use of the supply of green and high-quality agriculturalproducts to meet multi-tiered consumer demands.020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000IF2507.CFEIF2509.CFE020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000IC2507.CFEIC2509.CFE Source：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearchChart 5:Open Interest of IMSource：iFind, GUOTAIJUNAN FUTURESResearch020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000IM2507.CFEIM2508.CFEIM2509.CFEIM2512.CFE IC2508.CFEIC2512.CFE 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分The guidelines specifically outline measures to elevate standards forgreen, organic, geographically indicated and certified products, promotequality evaluation and grading, develop new-type processed goods andinnovate local specialty foods.Regarding circulation innovation, the guidelines focus on better aligningproduction, supply and marketing--while broadening offline saleschannels, with detailed arrangements for creating festival and exhibitionplatforms, enriching consumption scenarios, leveraging e-commerceadvantages and promoting inter-regional cooperation.Efforts will be made to advance the integration of agriculture, cultureand tourism to create new consumption spaces and stimulate synergybetween domestic and international consumer markets, according to theguidelines. (Source: Xinhua)2. Profits of China's major