人工智能/数据中心全球电力激增：推动上涨/下跌的五个因素以及可靠性投资的助力

Carly Davenport+1(212)357-1914carly.davenport@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Alberto Gandolfi+39(02)8022-0157alberto.gandolfi@gs.comGoldman Sachs Bank Europe SE -Milan branchJames Schneider, Ph.D.+1(212)357-2929jim.schneider@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Contributing AuthorsJames Schneider, Ph.D.+1(212)357-2929jim.schneider@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCBrian Singer, CFA+1 (212) 902-8259brian.singer@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCCarly Davenport+1 (212) 357-1914carly.davenport@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCEric Sheridan+1 (917) 343-8683eric.sheridan@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCKash Rangan+1(415)249-7318kash.rangan@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCDerek R. Bingham+1(415)249-7435derek.bingham@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCBrendan Corbett+1(415)249-7440brendan.corbett@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCVarsha Venugopal+1(415)393-7554varsha.venugopal@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCMadeline Meyer+44(20)7774-4593madeline.r.meyer@gs.comGoldman Sachs InternationalEmma Jones+61(2)9320-1041emma.jones@gs.comGoldman Sachs Australia Pty LtdEvan Tylenda, CFA+44(20)7774-1153 |evan.tylenda@gs.comGoldman Sachs InternationalToshiya Hari+1(646)446-1759toshiya.hari@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCAlberto Gandolfi+39(02)8022-0157alberto.gandolfi@gs.comGoldman Sachs Bank EuropeSE-Milan branchBrian Lee, CFA+1(917)343-3110brian.k.lee@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCNeil Mehta+1(212)357-4042neil.mehta@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCAdam Wijaya+1(212)357-1575adam.wijaya@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCJohn Mackay+1(212)357-5379john.mackay@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLC Michael Smith+1 (212) 357-2136michael.s.smith@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCXavier Zhang+852 2978-6681xavier.zhang@gs.comGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Joshua M. Frantz, CFA+1(917)343-4384joshua.frantz@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCJohn Miller+1(646)446-0292john.y.miller@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCJaskaranJaiya+1 332 245-7709jaskaran.jaiya@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPLTyler Bisset, CFA+1 212 357-5510tyler.bisset@gs.comGoldman Sachs & Co. LLCGrace Chen+44 20 7774-5119grace.j.chen@gs.comGoldman Sachs International Five key drivers of upside/downside risk to our data center power demandoutlookWill AI server shipments be constrained by data center capacity?Our analysis1.led by our Telecom Infrastructure team suggests a tightening market for data centerreal estate in the coming years but sufficient capacity for our base caseexpectations for power demand.Will data center capacity be constrained by power infrastructure?Our analysis2.led by our Utilities team suggests a combination of new generation additions andgreater utilization of existing capacity will be sufficient to meet data center powerdemand with transmission/interconnection the greatest risk.Will power infrastructure be constrained by low-carbon optionality/cost?We3.believe Big Tech will continue to take an all-in approach to data center powersourcing, with continued willingness to pay Green Reliability Premiums while at thesame time prioritizing time-to-market.Will new-gen AI chips drive lower or higher aggregate power demand?We4.assume Big Tech cash flow/budgets will be the key constraint, leaving upside risk ifthere are no constraints and downside risk if compute speed demand is finite.Will AI server demand be constrained by AI results/innovations?This will remain5.key to watch, particularly from a Sustainability perspective whether we seeaccelerated efficiency solutions in the health care, energy, agriculture and educationsectors.Exhibit 1: After being flat for 2015-19, we have seen data center powerdemand accelerate in 2020-23 and expect a >160% increase throughthe rest of the decadeGlobal data center electricity consumption, TWh; includes AI and excludescryptocurrency02004006008001,0001,200Data center power demand, TWhUS ex-AIRoW ex-AIRoW AIUS AISource: Cisco, IEA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Masanet et al. (2020)12 January 2025 2 AI/data center power demand key driver of Reliability as multi-yearinvestment themeWe believe the confluence of rising power demand, historical underinvestment ininfrastructure, AI investment and rising temperatures/more extreme weatherevents will continue to drive rising tailwinds for investments in Reliability, i.e.,products that help maintain resiliency, particularly for water and power. We continue tosee opportunity for investment in stocks levered to the theme globally, which we believewill be a priority for both policymakers and corporate/residential consumers.Infrastructure replacement and hardening both necessitate Reliability investment.Our meetings with corporates, regulators and policymakers in 2024 and at our 2025Global Energy, Utilities and Clean Tech Conference indicated increased recognition of theneed for grid/water infrastructure hardening and modernization. This is due to bothunderinvestment in recent years as well as a wider range of expected temperaturesbetween summer and winter. We believe both policymakers and regulators will look toreduce risk