全球大类资产配置周观察：美联储主席鲍威尔还能坚守岗位吗？

騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻2025䌑07劓19傽*yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S01305220300042025-07-16A艧낊呬鿛䰄溸⸉⺮㜩漽┱㎈嵱⮕卥2025-07-152025䌑╚㝠㓻䉗䈰✑⚷駖⫐㵽闌騣╚㝠㓻䉗䈰✑⚷駖⯈㟲A艧䉗㐙ꊙ◲升㑊2025-06-262025䌑㝕稝鰑分╚劻䫌鰑㺥労뎣⺈騳2025-06-222025䌑艧╚劻䫌鰑㺥労僓瓌┿儅2025-06-212025䌑A艧╚劻䫌鰑㺥労瞣㕈鉿甯2025-06-10:甯㴼䉕嚤䗼䫌鰑㺥労2025-05-29┪䉗⪫⺶䌔鯺ꓨ缀ꁹ匡〘◲假⺈2025-05-21⛽⯈椚僓♣姚嵌鰑分ꏕ翞⼅獏2025-05-12⪸瓭罏⾕⟥⺵┬〘◲升㑊劔労⺇漩2025-05-08耘臅⥈5劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬䫟⼴㐃ꄽ芤┱銻ꃹ뀔劻▇ꭊ耘臅⥈㠁✇䪹䭃2025-05-07⪸ꨴ僓ꭊ虹掾溸⹿䉘⚷┞䴗㲳ꓭ鄌侓2025-05-05䌑䫟⾕┞㳌䫟劔〘◲☗掾2025-05-04◩┞⢏劻◜⚂唯槏⹴䉗㐙㺥労2025-04-254劓╚㝠侓岖㹾⚷駖闌騣䭦缩甯㴼⾕嵛鳢鰑续䉗㐙臔撌〘◲做긖2025-04-24⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ┞㳌䍳䭦♎ꓤ侒〘◲⟥⺵2025-04-08╚㎼曬䌐⬮㕈ꓭ埭疿⮃┿䳀䮵䉗㐙⟥䖦2025-04-08寤ꓭ⪝䉗㑏㴼澚㝃 llllll ⮕卥䉞匤鱪(010-8092-7696潸⪸煝疵ⲹ閒勨脯✑ꓨ㗛뮿假瞬甯䉗㐙甯뀔劻 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն潨䓡Catalog┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋銩楓..........................................................................................................................◝յ㝕㴵ガ⿣......................................................................................................................................┞묛ꓭ䉗㐙.......................................................................................................................................◝ⸯ岓䉗㐙.......................................................................................................................................┩յ⡺⯟䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................┞耘⡺侅漩椚....................................................................................................................................◝╚⡺侅漩椚....................................................................................................................................㎃յ寤椚䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................┞耘⩧䭰俚.......................................................................................................................................◝姚⩧⩽耘⩧....................................................................................................................................┩蝠꩗⩽耘⩧....................................................................................................................................㎃耘⩧⩽傽⩧....................................................................................................................................◩耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕.................................................................................................................................◩յ勶漩䉗㐙......................................................................................................................................⪮յ낊ꯟ䳀獏...................................................................................................................................... 1 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն22025䌑7劓14傽 蔸7劓18傽 耘 德6劓CPI⻎ 嬠 ┪ ⶬ 蔸2.7% 呦 䖦CPI㙨 ꅌ ⛽ ◟ 뀔 劻 䉗 㐙 㸉 耘 臅 ⥈ ꮴ 䛉뀔 劻 侅 箄 鐖 滽 ▫  䭰 ⮃ 缋 嵴 㙨 ꪍ 侒 罏  ┯ 燛 㴼 䙎 ❹ 僀 둛 ⚕ ն 杅 劫 册 侓 䍠 缣缩 ⻔ 耘 臅 ⥈ 类 ⸐ 䌔 璼 ꯙ 긌 㲾 㐃 娀 駰 ┯ ⚷ 闌 겓 랄 㥓 㸸 ն杅 劫 册⽟ ⫐矸 翤վ 㝙 䩜 岻 呿 տ吙 䗅甯 㴼 䉕 漳 硅 皒 岻 婞 䑑 訒 㐌 ն┱ 婟 ⻎ 僓 耘 德 㸉 ╚ 傽ⷧ ⪸ 瓭 騰 ⯀ 뀡 緾 䲀 ꂛ ⪢ 槊 鰅 儅 箄 䑳 㹾 ⲹ ⶬ 廛 ն╚ 德 ⽶ 긖 վ 寛 儱 տ⮜ ⹿ 䙰 ▫ 駘 倁 皺 䒩 騫 䲀 ꂛ 둛 寊 䌐 㸉 㜾 䐷 侒 德 㵶 缛 駉 㹾 俚 䰕 兇 獏 ┪ ⶯ 䌑GDP⻎ 嬠 㙨 ꪍ5.3% 㜾 鰑 勨 卐 绳 绳 ┪ 騫 ⪢ 䌑 缋 嵴 㙨 ꅌ 뀔 劻 ն 德 ⲏ ꯗ ⮃ ⺬ 㝃 뀉 侓 瞬 佻 䭦 ⫐ 䕱 楒 ⾕ 假 茤徏 尸 鿕 ⹿ 㺥  ╚ 㝠 㓻 䉗 䈰 ✑ ⚷ 駖 ⮯ 僻 燛 㓻 䉗 ⹿ 㺥 鿛 ⻔ 䳀 鯵 㙨 侞 ն㝕 㴵 ガ ⿣ ⽶ 긖 鰂 ꓭ 㺲 ⚃ 呬㎈ 騫 全 锢⺇ ⯒ 耘 ⩧ 鱂 䒩 ┱ 耘 臅 ⥈ ꮴ 䛉 뀔 劻䒙  溸 䬩 箕 ⸯ 岓升㑊 䪩 ⸐ ⺇ 箕 ◟ ⪢ 槊 괛 寛 ⯼ 冎 ┯ 甯 ┱ 耘 姚 㸉 ➷ 假 ┞ 鿝 ⯜ 鍧 䔕 ⿱ ┬ 溸 ❵ 䍎 ⷇ 䑆 ն⡺ ⯟ 䉗 㐙 ⽶ 긖 耘⡺ 侅 漩 椚 㸰 䋀 ┪ 鉿 6劓CPI⪫ 䉘 ⻑ 䉗 㐙 㸉 耘 臅 ⥈ 䌑 ⫐ ꮴ 䛉 虹 㞎 汻 劔 騫 俠 脯 ╚ ⡺ 侅 漩 椚 䕼 䋀 ┬鉿 德 ⫐ 甯 㙨 ꪍ 侓 瞬 뀔 劻 㙨 䒩 յ嵤 Ⲙ 䙎 受 䭦 㶄 卄 ն㜾 寤 䉗 㐙 ╚ 耘 ⩧ 䭰 俚 俠 ✅ ⢟ 䒩 ⺇ 漩 ◟ ꉍ ꯟ괛 寛 ┱ 杅 劫 册 鰅 儅 侓 瞬 뀔 劻 Ⲏ 焺全 锢 긌 耘 鯴 䉕 䪩 ⸐ն勶 漩 䉗 㐙 ⽶ 긖 ◱ 㝛 ┱ 假 ⪺ 䉗 㐙 册 ꇁ ⹹ 䒧 ╚ 德⺇ 漩 ◟ ┪ ⶯ 䌑 缋 嵴 俚 䰕 ⚕ 甯♨ ⹴侓 瞬 ⟥ ⺵ 璺 卋 ꓤ 侒 䊎 Ⲙ 耘 艧 䐥 缩 廛 ⾕ ┪ 巹 䉗 㐙 臔 撌 耘臅 ⥈ 鴤 䔴 ┱ 漳 硅 侓 瞬 鱂 ⻔ն⪾ ✅ 匡 澚NYMEX㝙 撬 官 巹7.63%CBOT椝 稌 巹3.82%⮱ ╃ 升 䭰 巹3.17%LMEꨒ 巹3.12% 䚔 气 䭰 俚 巹2.84%CBOT㝕 骀 巹2.76% 苪 䗅 僻 䭰 俚 巹2.71%DCE꧇ 焸 焪 巹2.68%㶡 僓 假 Ⲏ 㑗 嶯 㿔 䭰 俚 巹2.49% 广 駩 䧯 䭰 巹2.04% 绯 偅 ꁒ ⩴ 䭰 俚 巹1.51%LMEꧢ 巹1.39%LMEꧣ 巹1.34%10䌑 劻 耘 ⡺ 侅 漩 椚 ┪ 鉿1BP耘 ⩧ ⩽ 傽 ⩧ 巹0.96%┪ 駩 䭰 俚 巹0.69%傽 缋225巹0.63%耘 ⩧ 䭰 俚 巹0.60%吙 册500巹0.59%蝠 德 㶡 僓100巹0.57%SHFE酧 绵 ꦨ 巹0.45%CBOT㸰 뫘 巹0.37%䖎 德DAX巹0.14%耘 ⩧ ⩽ 瑠 㽺 ☭ 宑 䉕 巹0.10%10䌑 劻 ╚ ⡺ 侅漩 椚 ┬ 鉿0.01BPꇔ 樴 偅 䈰 ╃ 䭰 俚 鳰0.07% 岻 德CAC40鳰0.08% 姚 ⩧ ⶔSTOXX鳰0.24%蝠 ꩗ ⩽ 耘 ⩧ 鳰0.25%COMEX묛 ꓭ 鳰0.25%姚 ⩧ ⩽ 耘 ⩧ 鳰0.55%ⷧ䍳SENSEX30鳰0.90%COMEX溮 ꧼ 鳰1.36%ICE䉘 岓 鳰1.61%NYMEX WTIⸯ 岓 鳰3.54%ն㎽12025䌑7劓14傽蔸2025䌑7劓18傽⪢槊㝕稝鰑分銩⻓⡺⯟⺈Ⲙ⶿⛻╬BP⪼✍鰑分╬%鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ-6-4-20246810NYMEX㝙撬官CBOT椝稌⮱╃升䭰LMEꨒ䚔气䭰俚CBOT㝕骀苪䗅僻䭰俚DCE꧇焸焪㶡僓假Ⲏ㑗嶯㿔䭰俚广駩䧯䭰绯偅ꁒ⩴䭰俚LMEꧢLMEꧣ10䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚耘⩧⩽傽⩧┪駩䭰俚傽缋225耘⩧䭰俚吙册500蝠德㶡僓100SHFE酧绵ꦨCBOT㸰뫘䖎德DAX耘⩧⩽瑠㽺☭宑䉕10䌑劻╚⡺德⡺侅漩椚ꇔ樴偅䈰╃䭰俚岻德CAC40姚⩧ⶔSTOXX蝠꩗⩽耘⩧COMEX묛ꓭ姚⩧⩽耘⩧ⷧ䍳SENSEX30COMEX溮ꧼICE䉘岓NYMEX WTIⸯ岓（%）（BP） 騟ⲏ䖪꭛騣婞倁劅⻑溸╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟艧⚌劔ꮺ⪫⺶⩹鯰㛽僻ն◝յ㝕㴵ガ⿣┞묛ꓭ䉗㐙续 ⽟ 묛 ꓭ 괭 衄 侅 鳰 ն杅 劫 册䳀 ⮃ 溸⪸ 瓭 侓 瞬 ┞ 䍳 ⽕ ⹿ ꉍ ꯟ 䝠 缦 䲀 둛 ꓭ ⚃ ⛰ 갫 濫 䉗 㐙 䝠 缦 鱶甯 䉗 㐙둛 ⛻ 裯 ⯈ ◗ 缏 ❈ ꓭ ⚃ ㎈ 騫 ն耘 德6劓CPI俚 䰕汻 鱪 뀔 劻耘 臅 ⥈ ꮴ 䛉 뀔 劻 焝 冩 ꮴ 廛 耘⩧ 䭰 俚 鱂 䒩 类 ⸐ ꓭ ⚃ ն⪼ ⻑ ⪸ ◟ 杅 劫 册 䧶 翌 ⩹ 랄 㥓 㸸 溸巆 䛉⽕ ⹿ 耘 ⩧ 鰑 分 ┬ 鉿 յ묛 ꓭ 焝 绻 ⹹ 䒧 ⛰ 갫 濫