飞翔的荷兰人：基金减持中国大陆、韩国；增加对印度的风险敞口

Issuer of report:TheHongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsPrerna Garg*Associate, Equity StrategyThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedprerna.garg@hsbc.com.hk+852 9831 6901Herald van der Linde*, CFAHead of Equity Strategy, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedheraldvanderlinde@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6575Varun Pai*AssociateBangalore* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.Equity StrategyAsia 234 ◆◆◆ 5 Asia funds:These include fundswithamandate to invest in Asiaex-Japan and Australia.Ourproprietaryframework ofmutual funds’ positioning showsthat fundsreduced theirunderweightsinmainland China,Koreaand Hong Kongin April. Despite the scale-back,holdings inmainlandChinaremain near multi-year highlevels. Fundsfurthercut their underweightsin India,with themarket having witnessed a notable increase in allocation in recent months (Exhibit 3). Fundstrimmed their underweightson Taiwan as well.Within ASEAN, funds reduced their exposure to allmarkets with the exception of the Philippines.GEM funds:These include funds withamandate to invest inGEMs.Data asat theend ofAprilshow theyslightly reduced their exposure to mainland China(Exhibit 5), while retaining theiroverweightson the market (in terms of active weight (z-score)). Funds reduced marginally theirunderweightson India and turned neutral on Taiwan from a previously small underweight.Elsewhere, exposure to Korea and ASEAN markets was reduced.Global fund holdings in mainland China have witnessed a gradual rise over the past few months,but remain substantially lower than levelstouched in 2021(Exhibit 6).For fund holdings, we prefer to look at portfolio holdings against a market’s own history (z-score)to adjust for any historical biases mutual funds may have towardsmarkets.However, we also lookatabsolute portfolio exposure–that is, the actual difference vs the benchmark(exhibits7and8).Asia fundsdecreasedtheir positioning in Hong Kong and mainland China andnotablyreducedtheir underweightsin India. Holdings in Taiwanwere marginally increased, although they remainnear five-year low levels(Exhibit 4).Exposure to Korea was scaled back, with funds turningneutral on the market.FlowsForeigninstitutionalinvestor (FII) flows:1So far inMay, foreign investors havepurchasedcUSD12bn from Asia ex-China equities–marking the largest monthly inflow in 18 months–reversing the trend after seven successive months of outflows.Net inflows were observed acrossnearly all markets, with Taiwan and India contributing the most. Taiwan equitieshaverecordedinflows of USD8bn in May so far, the highest monthly inflow since late 2023(Exhibit 11). In India,FIIs remained net buyers, though the magnitude of inflows was relatively subdued(Exhibit 12).FIIs turned net buyers of Vietnam equities for the first time since January 2024. Foreign fundshave withdrawn from mainland China equities over the past few weeks (Exhibit 10).Calculation methodology.We have developed a proprietary dataset to assess how funds withamandate to invest in Asia ex-Japan and GEMmarketsare positioned across Asian markets. Forthis analysis, we focus entirely on active funds and do not include hedge funds, ETFs,retailinvestors, corporates,or domestic institutions.We source the fund holding details from Morningstar anduse that datatocalculate fundallocations to Asian markets. We then compare these allocations to the weight of each market inthe underlyingbenchmark to determine the active weights (overweight and underweight positions).We also compare the active weights to history by looking attheirfive-year z-scores.A z-score of1.64 implies that active weights have been higher only 5% of the time. We receive the data on amonthly basis,with a lag ofthree to fourweeks.______________________________________1FII flows are net flows into equity markets. Data is available on a daily basis forsevenAsian markets.For Asia, weconsider ex-Japan & mainland China flows.Data asof22May2025. 3Note: The red dots show the active weight of the current fund weights with respect tothe neutral benchmark, the black dots show the weighta month ago, and the greybars represents the 5-year range.Dataasof 30 April 2025.Source: Morningstar, FTSE Russell, Factset, HSBC Exhibit 12.FII’sremain net buyers inIndian marketsSource:AMFI, HSBCExhibit13. Cumulative flows into Asiaex JP and mainland China:Netoutflowsof-15-10-50510Jan-23Jul-23Net FII flows (USDbn)JulyAug20222023Source:Morningstar, HSBC 6Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s),economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary com