深度剖析：重要的地缘政治——美中关系的40多个关键数据点

Equity ResearchMay 25, 2025Aniket Shah, PhD * | Head of Sust. &(212) 323-3976 | ashah14@jefferies.comCharles Boakye, CFA * | Sust. & Transition(212) 336-6649 | cboakye@jefferies.comMatthew Spring, CFA * | Sust. & Transition+1 (212) 738-5297 | mspring@jefferies.comCarina Elfving * | Sust. & Transition Strategy+1 (212) 336-7238 | celfving@jefferies.comYujin Kim * | Sust. & Transition Strategy+1 (212) 778-8314 | ykim4@jefferies.comLuke Sussams ^ | Sust. & Transition Strategist44 (0)20 7548 4404 | lsussams@jefferies.comGrace Elshafei ^ | Sust. & Transition Strategy+44 (0) 20 7029 8952 | gelshafei@jefferies.comJacqueline Murdock ^ | Sust. & Transition+44 (0)20 7548 4165 | jmurdock@jefferies.comAna Zotovic ‡ | Sust. & Transition Strategy+1 (416) 847 7399 | azotovic@jefferies.comInthe coming weeks we will exploredifferent aspects of US China tech rivalryand what this means for sectors acrossExhibit 1 - China is the largest contributor toExhibit 2 - The best performing US sector(tech) has outperfromed its Chinese Transition StrategyStrategistStrategy AssociateAssociateAssociateAssociateStrategy AssociateAssociateboth countriesglobal patent applications.Source: WIPO, Jefferiescounterpart (tech).Source: BloombergLP, Jefferies •Power Sector —The CO2 intensity of China power system is 468 gCO2/kWh vs the US at 366.8gCO2/kWh (Chart 34). China's share of electricity in final energy demand is c.30% (vs c.22% US)•Emissions— CO2 continues to fall in the US, driven by improvements in TES/GDP & CO2/TES(Chart 43). CO2 in China is increasing, driven by GDP/Capita (i.e. industrialization)Macro•GDP— The US economy remains significantly lager than that of China's at $29.18trn vs$17.7trn (Chart 1)•GDP Growth— China's economy has been growing >2x that of the US over the last 5yrs (Chart6)•Debt to GDP— China's government debt to GDP ratio (c.25%) remains lower than that of theUS at 120% (Chart 10)Trade —The value of imports & exports between US & China in 2024 was c. 9x larger than in 2001(Chart 16)•GDP & Trade— Trade accounted for 1/3 of China’s economic growth in 2024 — direct exportsto the US only comprise about 15%.•Balance of Trade —China is the world's largest exporter of goods with a trade surplus of$992bn (Chart 14)•Total Trade Volume —China's total trade volume reached c.$6.1trn in 2024, a 5% YoY increase.Please see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Macro•GDP— As of 2024, the US economy remains significantly larger than that of China's at $29.18trnvs $17.7trn in nominal terms (Chart 1)•The same holds for GDP/capita both in nominal and PPP terms (Chart 2 & 3)•GDP Growth— China's economy has been growing at more than 2x that of the US over the last5 years (Chart 6)•Debt to GDP— China's government debt to GDP ratio (c.25%) remains significantly lower thanthat of the US at 120%(Chart 10)•Central Bank/FX Reserves —China holds the world's largest FX reserves, dwarfing that of theUS (Chart 11 & 12)•Inflation —Inflation in China remains small compared to that of the US (Chart 13)Chart 2 - Per capita output in the US ($85k) remains higher than that of China(13.8k) in nominal terms.Source: Worldbank Databank, JefferiesChart 4 - GDP/Capita US vs China - Nominal.Source: Worldbank Databank, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 3 - SImilar holds for PPP adjusted per capita output in - US ($82k) vs China($26k).Source: Worldbank Databank, JefferiesChart 5 - GDP/Capita PPP - US vs China.Source: Worldbank Databank, Jefferies Chart 6 - China's economy has been growing at more than 2x that of the US overthe last 5 years.02004006008001000120014001600Source: Worldbank Databank, JefferiesChart 8 - US debt outstanding is c. 2x that of China.Source: BloombergLP. JefferiesChart 10 - The US's debt to GDP ratio (c.120%) islarger than China's (25.6%).Source: BloombergLP, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 14 - 19 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Worldbank Databank, Jefferies Source: Worldbank Databank, Jefferies Chart 13 - Inflation in China (CPI) remains below that of the US.Source: Worldbank Databank, Jefferies•Trade —China is the world's largest exporter of goods with a trade surplus of $992bn (Chart 14)•The US recorded its highest goods trade deficit in 2024 of $1.2trn (Chart 15)•Total Trade Volume —China's total trade volume reached c. 6.1trn in 2024 a 5% YoY increase,with notable diversification of trading partners (e.g. Southeast Asia, Africa, etc)•Total Trade in the US was $5.22trn in 2024, China's Share of US trade fell by 7.6% (Chart16)Chart 14 - China's trade surplus in 2024 was c. $990bn.Source: Worldbank Databank, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure info