保险业的气候变化风险评估

The Geneva Association Task Forceon Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Insurance IndustryMaryam Golnaraghi(project leader and coordinating author), The Geneva AssociationDrafting team:Ian Adamczyk, Moya Chew-Lai(retired), Li Liu, Sean Collins, Prudential FinancialHjörtur Thrainsson, Munich ReMichèle Lacroix, Paul Nunn, SCORMartin Bertogg,Swiss ReOther team members:Gijs Kloek, Achmea |Pedro Nascimento de Oliveira, AegonJennifer Waldner, David Buckle, Anthony L Zobl,AIGSebastian Fischer, Allianz |Ben Carr, Bianca Hanscombe, Jean-Francois Coppenolle, AvivaDoraElamri, Olivier Poissonneau, Helene Chauvea, AXA |Gloria Jimenez, Alex Speers,ChubbHidenao Makiuchi, Kazumi Hayashi, Dai-ichi Life |Jörg Steffensen, Hannover ReBrandon Blant, Mandy Dennison, Pierre Bernard, Laura Willett, Intact FinancialCindy Forbes, Margaret Eve Childe, Maria McGowan, Herman Ko, ManulifeDiana Keegan, Anna Warm, MetLife |Eberhard Faust(retired), Munich ReJunaid Seria, Yun Wai-Song, SCOR |Martin Weymann, Swiss ReZ. Ming Li, John Campbell, Kei Kato, Tokio Marine |Dennis Noordhoek, The Geneva AssociationClimate Change Risk Assessmentfor the Insurance IndustryA holistic decision-making framework and keyconsiderations for both sides of the balance sheet 2www.genevaassociation.orgThe Geneva AssociationThe Geneva Association was created in 1973 and is the only global association of insurance companies; ourmembers are insurance and reinsurance Chief Executive Officers (CEOs). Based on rigorous research conductedin collaboration with our members, academic institutions and multilateral organisations, our mission is toidentify and investigate key trends that are likely to shape or impact the insurance industry in the future,highlighting what is at stake for the industry; develop recommendations for the industry and for policymakers;provide a platform to our members, policymakers, academics, multilateral and non-governmental organisationsto discuss these trends and recommendations; reach out to global opinion leaders and influential organisationsto highlight the positive contributions of insurance to better understanding risks and to building resilient andprosperous economies and societies, and thus a more sustainable world.AcknowledgementsThe Task Force would like to thank the members of the Geneva Association Climate Change and Emerging EnvironmentalTopics Working Group and the Public Policy and Regulation Working Group for their review and feedback. We extend ourspecial thanks also to: Chris Boss and Maeve Sherry (Aviva); Liesbeth van der Kruit and Gijs Kloek (Achmea); Edward Barron(AIG); Simone Ruiz-Vergote and Andreas Funke (Allianz); Patricia Plas, Celine Soubranne and Madeleine-Sophie Deroche(AXA); Laura Willet (Intact Financial); Hidehiko Sogano and Jiro Kamiko (Dai-ichi Life); Diana Keegan (MetLife); PanosCharissiadis (Munich Re); Guillaume Ominetti (SCOR); Urs Halbeisen and Marion Lienhard, Stefan Roth, Tobias Wassmann,Lutz Wilhelmy (Swiss Re). Finally, we appreciate the helpful comments of Christophe Courbage and Kai-Uwe Schanz (TheGeneva Association).Geneva Association publications:Pamela Corn, Director CommunicationsHannah Dean, Editor and Content ManagerPetr Neugebauer, Digital Media ManagerSuggested citation:The Geneva Association. 2021.Climate Change Risk Assessmentfor the Insurance Industry.February. Authors: Maryam Golnaraghiand the Geneva Association Task Force on Climate Change RiskAssessment for the Insurance Industry.© The Geneva Association, 2021 All rights reservedwww.genevaassociation.orgPhoto credits:Cover page— Elena11 and Fit Ztudio / Shutterstock.com ContentsForeword1.Executive summary2.Context3.Terminology4.How does climate change impact the insurance industry?4.1Framing climate change risks and relevant time horizons for decision-making4.2Implications of climate change risk for P&C and life re/insurers – Liability sideP&C re/insurersPhysical riskTransition riskLife re/insurersPhysical risk over the short termTransition risk over the short termPhysical and transition risk over the long term4.3Implications of climate change risk for P&C and life re/insurers – Asset sidePhysical riskTransition risk4.4Key questions re/insurers ask when embarking on climate change risk assessments5.Approaches to climate change risk assessment5.1Quantitative tools5.2Qualitative tools6.Summary and conclusionsReferencesAnnexesAnnex 1: Climate change-related activities of regulatory authoritiesAnnex 2: P&C and life insurance business models 3Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Insurance Industry561013151518181920222222222323232425262728303335 4www.genevaassociation.orgAbstractThe Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure(TCFD) has raised the need for decision-relevant, clear, consistent and comparableclimate information for stakeholder groups to inform investing. The insurance industryis well positioned to take the lead in advancing the forefront of methodologies andtools that produce meanin