疫苗周追踪：政策/法规 + 处方（COVID-19、流感、PCV、RSV）

Roger Song, MD, CFA * I Equity Analyst(617) 342-7955 I rsong@jefferies.comNabeel Nissar * I Equity Associate+1 (617) 345-8677 I nnissar@jefferies.comLiang Cheng, Ph.D. * I Equity Associate+1 (617) 342-7896 Ilcheng1@jefferies.comFiona Jia, Ph.D. * I Equity Associate+1 (617) 342-7942|fjia@jefferies.comCha Cha Yang, MS, MBA * I Equity Associate+1 (857) 330-5772 Icyang2@jefferies.com JefferiesChart 1 - Vaccine Catalyst TableAs of 7/11/2025COVID-19 (mRNA-1283) PDUFAVXRT oral CV19 vax pill PhZ initiatiorNote: level of impact score ranging from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest)We track real-time weekly vaccination trends in the US usingIQVIA's TRx data. While respiratoryviruses show seasonal infection patterns, vaccination trends vary: high seasonality for CoviD-19and flu, but less for PCV and RSV. See the full report for brand details.Chart 2 - US Weekly Vaccination TRx Chart (IQVIA) - CV19, Flu, RSV, & PCVAs of 7/4/20259.0M8.0M7.0M6.0M5.0M4.0M3.0M2.0M1.0Mource: Jefferind IQVl(Abrysvo, Arexvy, Mresvia, Beyfortus, Synagis), and available 2023 and 2024 season flu vaccines (Afluria, Afluria quad, Fluad, Fluadquadrival, Flulaval trivalent, Flumist, Fluzone, Fluzone HD quadri, Fluzone HD, Vaxneuvance)Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. vailable CV19 vaccaty, NVAX's CV19 vaccine, Spikevax), all availabletrivalent, Flucelvax, Flucelvax Quadval, Flucelvax trival, Flulaval JefferiesChart 3 - US Total Weekly PCV Vaccination TRx (IQVIA)As of 7/4/2025200,000180,000160,000140,000120,000100,000B0,00050,00010,00Ind IQVIAData represents weekly TRx (scripts/prescriptions) for all available 2024 FluVaxneuvance),Chart 4 - US Total Weekly RSV Vaccination TRx (IQVIA)As of 7/4/2025700,00000009500,000400,000300,000200,000antibodies (Beyfortus and Synagis)Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited JefferiesChart 5 - US Total Weekly COVID-19 Vaccination TRx (IQVIA)Asof 7/4/20254,000,0003,500,0003,000,0002,500,0002,000001,500,0001,000,000500,000Source: Jefferies research and IQVIAData represents weekly TRx (scripts/prescriptions) for all available CV19 vaccines (Comirnaty, NVAX's CV19 vaccine, Spikevax)Chart 6 - US Total Weekly Flu Vaccination TRx (IQVIA)As of 7/4/20259,00.0008,00.0007,00,Source: Jefferies research and IQVIAFlulaval rivalent, Flumist, Fluzone, Fluzone HD quadr,Fluzone HD, Vaxneuvance)Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jefferies~~VaccinePolicyReportContent~~3)MonarezCDCNominationAdvances,Role inACiP Oversight Looms.On 7/10,the Senate HELPher one step closer to formal confirmation. If approved by the full Senate, Monarez would assumeongoing political and scientific tensions. Monarez, who has served as acting director since Januaryand previously held a leadership role at ARPA-H, has largely avoided public comment on RFK's ACIPoverhaul but stated she would"actively listen"to ACIP discussions. While RFK retains authority to adoptor override ACiP recommendations, Monarez's confirmation could reintroduce a layer of institutional4) Centivax Raises s45M for mRNA-Based Universal Flu Vaccine. Despite political headwinds andfunding constraints in the vaccine space, secured a s45M Series A to advance its mRNA-baseduniversal flu vaccine into clinical trials in 2026. The candidate encodes 22 mRNA molecules from flucompany's approach has shown broad protection in animal models and aligns with FDA CommissionerMakary's recent comments projecting a universal flu vaccine within five years. While skepticism aroundmRNA persists, particularly from HHS leadership, investor confidence in Centivax signals continuedavailable for differentiated vaccine programs, a modest positive for sentiment across the mRNA space.~~~ Additional Vaccine Tracker Information ~~~At the end of '24/'25 vaccine season, we do not expect significant flu/CV19 shots from here. For cV19vaccine, there was a sharp increase in scripts (based on IQVIA) from the end of Aug until early Oct,but those numbers have been declining. Compared with last season's ~40M+ (estimated total)/~35M(IQVIA) CV19 doses in the US and weekly peak at ~3.5M doses (week of Oct 13 '23), season-to-datedoses are running at ~30.53M, with the peak at ~2.6M (week of Oct 4, 24). For NVAX, their CV19vaccine became widely available in the week of Sept 13 with initial sales at ~18K IQViA TRx/~0.8%market share to current ~0 /~0.00% share in the week of Jul 11,'25, summing to ~715.44K/~2.3%share for this seasonWe are tracking real-time weekly Cv19 vaccinations over the past few months. We report on totalCV19 vaccinations over the past year and break down uptake of cV19 vaccinations by brand sinceend of August 2023.Please see important di