矿业动态：更多火花

While US copper smelters are not operatingat full capacity, new smelters will be neededfor the US to be self sufficient in primarycopper supply in the long run. Freeport'sMiami smelter and Rio's Garfield smelterat Kennecott are the two operating coppersmelters in the US. Grupo Mexico's Haydensmelter has been idled since 2019 followinga labor dispute at that time.Chart of the Week: US Copper SmelterProduction and Capacity (kt)Source: Wood Mackenzie, JefferiesChristopher LaFemina, CFA * IEquity Analyst(212) 336-7304 I clafemina@jefferies.comPatricia Hove, CFA * IEquity Analyst(212)707-63621phove@jefferies.comAlbert Realini, CPA * I Equity Associate(212) 778-8487 larealini@jefferies.comAlexander Rickard * IEquity Associate(212) 323-7647 Iarickard@jefferies.com JefferiesLibraryof Most Recent Mining MinutesHeating Up I July 4 2025King CopperI June 28 2025Coal in Focus; Copper Squeeze Potential I June 21 2025Time for a Breather I June 13 2025Rising Into Thin Air I June 6 2025Glencore's Comeback I May 31 2025Different Realities I May 24 2025Goldilocks? I May 17 2025Debbie Downer Makes an Appearance I May 10 2025Left in the Lurch 1 May 3 2025Exhibit 1 - Ratio of Commodity Prices to the S&P500Oil Embargo &High InflationNifty Fifty MarketBubble1970 -1979Source: FactSet, JefferiesExhibit 2 - S&P GSCI Reference Percentage DollC WeightsCornSoybeansChicago WheatSugarKansas WheatCoffeeCottonCocoaLive CattleLean HogsFeeder CattleBrent Crude OilWTI Crude OilGas OilHeating OilRBOB GasolineNatural GasCopperAluminumNickelZincLeadGoldSilverSource: S&P Dow Jones IndicesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Gulf War1980 -19891990-1999GSCI Commodity Index vs. S& 5od Index微信 2008 Oil PriceSpike and GFCTechBubble4000-2009e2024RPDW6.00%3.97%3.17%1.89%1.45%0.85%1.02%0.33%4.00%2.10%1.62%20.73%19.31%5.73%4.81%4.39%3.47%4.49%3.50%1.13%0.83%0.54%4.25%0.42% JefferiesExhibit 3 - Share Price Performance (SUS), WTDRio TintoBHPGlencoreAnglo AmericanFreeportS&P 500AntofagastaValeFirst QuantumLundin MiningTeck-10%Source: Factset, JefferiesExhibit 4 - Commodity Price Performance, WTDwnpelledBitcoinPlatinumIron OreGoldSeaborne Met CoalZincAluminumSeaborne Thermal CoalNickelCopper (LME)-5%Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. A mixed week for the sector as UK diversifiedminers outperformed.Commodity prices were also mixed.3 JefferiesExhibit 5 - 2025 YTD Performance ($US), TSR35%%025%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%20%Source: Factset, JefferiesExhibit 6 - 2025 YTD Steel Share Price Performance (SUS),TSR50%45%40%35%%025%20%15%10%5%0%ArcelorMittal(ADR)Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited The major miners have had a mixedperformance so far this year, with copperminers outperforming and diversified minersunderperformingUs Steel equities are now all up on the year. JefferiesExhibit 7 - Total Shareholder Returns (in local currencies)Ramaco ResourcesCleveland CliffsIvanhoe ElectricRio Tinto PlcBHP LtdNucorGlencoreSteel DynamicsWarrior Met CoalBHP Ltd (ADR)Anglo AmericanSouth32Rio Tinto Plc (ADR)FTSE All-SharePeabody EnergyFreeport-McMoRanAntofagastaS&P 500Core Natural ResourcesAlcoaCMCAlpha Metallurgical ResourcesVale (ADR)First QuantumLundin MiningTeck ResourcesMMGPriced IntradayonJuly11thSource: Factset, JefferiesExhibit 8 - Jefferies'Commodity Price ForecastsBase Metals (US$ per Ib)AluminiumCopper (LME)NickelZincPGMs and Gold (US$ per oz)PlatinumPalladiumGoldIron Ore (CFR China) (US$ per tonne)Fines (62% Fe)Coal (FOB) (US$ per tonne)Australian hard coking coalAustralian thermal coal (Newcastle, 6000 kcal/kg)US Steel (USS per short ton)US Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled CoilUS Domestic RebarUS Midwest Domestic Busheling ScrapAlumina (US$ per tonne)AluminaSource: Bloomberg, Jefferies' estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Ramaco shares benefitted this week as theUS government purchased a stake in MPMaterials.2028E2029E2030ELong-term1.351.301.201.105.506.006.004.258.008.008.008.001.401.351.101.001,2001,2001,2008001,1001,1001,1008003,0002,7002,5002,50090909090210215215215969696968628628628627807807807804204184184183753753753755 JefferiesCompany Valuation/RisksDisclosures.action or call 212.284.2300Analyst Certification:I, Christopher LaFemina, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirec