Q2-25预览：受欢迎与不受欢迎的股票

StrategyThis week's mostread researchC Jonathan JayarajanResearch Analyst+44-20-754-76037 This week's most read researchEuropean DefenceSome takeaways from the DB Defence conferencechristophe.menard@db.comPublished on 7th July 2025Last week Deutsche Bank hosted its inaugural European Defence Conference inLondon, bringing together a variety of stakeholders from the Industry. We highlightmajortakeawaysfromthe conference.Participants consideredtheJune2o25NATO summit a landmark event, as showcasing unity that could drive increasedEuropean collaboration,joint procurement,and standardization of weaponsystems. This could be key to overcome European industry fragmentation. Thepotential for longer-term contracts provides crucial supply chain visibility andprocurement security, enabling structured improvements to the defence supplychain, highlighted by Germany's potential large-scale vehicle order.AllfundsGrowth at reasonable price, c.1.75x return in the next 3.5 years is plausibledavid.mccann@db.comPublished on 7th July 2025We think Allfunds offers an organic-growth-at-reasonable-price investment caseOver the medium term (FY24-28E), we think it can plausibly deliver 15% p.a.Wethink thatis attractive in the contextof a FY25E P/E ofc.16xon a company statedbasis,or c.18xon aDBbasis(includingseveral"below-the-line"items whichwethink should be included in adjusted EPS), falling to c.10x/c.11x FY28E. We think ac.1.75x total shareholder return in the 3.5 years to FQ8E is plausible. We initiatecoverage of Allfunds with a Buy rating and an 8.bo target price.Commodities OutlookTariff Turbulence微信liam.fitzpatrick@db.comPublished on 2nd July 2025De-escalation on the trade front has led to a strong rebound in industrial metalsthrough Q2. Against an uncertain backdrop, we take the turbulent de-escalationpath outlined by our macro strategists as our central case; global growth just shyof 3%pa in 2025/26and structural USD weakness.Nearterm, we do not believeglobal growth is strong enough for metal prices to sustainably break higher, but iftradeuncertainties continueto clear,itcouldfinallypavethewayfora recoveryinex-China metal demand in 2026.Page 2 ecS This week's most read researchLondon Stock Exchange GroupUnderlying delivery vs USD headwindsbenjamin.goy@db.comPublished on 8th July 2025We forecast good ongoing revenue momentum at LSEG in 2Q25, driven by resilientgrowth in its data businesses and even better growth rates in Markets as structuralgrowth was again complemented by cyclical volatility in the quarter. However,ongoing UsD weakness will represent a meaningful headwind to reported revenuegrowth and marginally to profitability too. Nevertheless, we forecast underlyinggrowth to still allow for sizeable EBITDA margin expansion and cash generation in1H25; also supporting a new GBP500m share buyback. Hence, we see ourunderlying investment thesis (more details in our April upgrade) fully intact. LSEGtrades at 14.7x 2026EEV / EBITDA, an attractive level in our view, particularly givenits underlying growth profile and YTD underperformance and derating. Buy.RheinmetallBuilding German Backlogchristoph.laskawi@db.comPublished on 4th July 2025Germany has announced a target Defence spend of 3.5 % of GDP by 2029 whichmarks another acceleration compared to the previous discussion. In our view, thisis a sizeable positive for Rheinmetall due to its significant exposure to the domesticbudget. The resulting visibility on budget increases and long-term spend should bea differentiatingfactoramongpeers.WereiterateourBuy recommendation.WithQ2-25 reporting ahead, we do not yet expect the company to tweak up the 2025guidance but to highlight longer-term opportunities. Raising guide is only seen asan event for Q3/the CMD. Q2 numbers in itself will likely confirm recentmanagement comments on growth as well as factors such as operationalforecasts we move our target price to EUR1,950 (from EUR1,800).Moonpig Group PLCDouble (digit) disappointmentalison.lygo@db.comPublished on 4th July 2025Rightly or wrongly, the focus in Moonpig's equity story has been its ability to deliverdouble digit topline growth. Wrongly perhaps, as such a sharp focus doessomewhat overlook the strength of margins and cash generation, but focus wasverymuchdirectedherewithOctober'sCMD.AconfidentKPIformulawassetoutand the core Moonpig brand was set to be the proof point this year. FY25 earningsbeat expectations by c.7% with a 27.6% EBITDA margin, exceeding the 25-27%target, but Moonpig revenue was +7.5% in H2. Certainly not a bad performancerelative to the sector, but it has invited questions as to whether the mid-term equitystory can be hung off double digit topline growth to drive mid teens EPS growth.Deutsche Bank AG This week's most read researchVodafone Group PlcBecoming more Orangey than Lemony. Buyrobert.grindle@db.comPublishedon7thJuly2025Vodafone is doing better (+22% TSR ytd). The sector (defensive to trade), a UK deal(>f7bn synergy NPV), optimism at Vodacom (double-d