无线服务行业报告（第28-52周）：沃达丰前景看好，而英国电信吸引力下降

Robert Grindle, Ph.D.Research Analyst+44-20-754-58490Keval Khiroya, CFAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-18164Roshan Ranjit, CFAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-52908John KaridisResearch Analyst+44-20-754-54610Vijay SaravananResearchAssociateAnkit SharmaResearch Associate 11 July 2025Wireless ServicesDB X-Connecttelco story to support BT vs peers. Sell. TP unch. Please see reportORANGE(Buy): Robusttrends stillappealing.WhilstOrange's strong performance(+23%VS.SXKPYTD)hasbeenfuelledbyreportsofpotentialdomesticconsolidation, we highlight domestic operational trends have been robust in thecontext of fragility at the low end of the market. ORA has maintained solid KPlmomentum with growth in the broadband and mobile base, something we expectto continue into Q2. Management has been clear on the slowing retail servicerevenue growth (ex-PsTN) given lack of subscriber wide price increases, butupselling maintains the ARPO growth. Please see reportDEUTSCHE TELEKOM (Buy): Both Deutsche Tel and its ~52%-owned USsubsidiary T-Mobile US (Buy, last close s$228) fell 2% by yesterday close ostensiblydue to the latter's compliance with the US administration's policies on DEl ("T-Mobile will no longer have any individual roles or teams focussed on DEl". DTconfirms that DT Group remains "inclusive" but that TMUS "as an American andlegally independent co, operates under the legal framework applicable in the Us"(Bloomberg). Subsequently, the DoJ has approved T-Mobile's $4.4bn acquisition ofUScellular and the FCC approved the creation of the fibre JV Metronet. We note thatTMUS, which has recently announced a number of attractive pre-paid offers tooffset lower customer growth than expected at Q1, may also be a beneficiary of theextension of bonus depreciation. TMUS reports Q2 on 23 July (DT 7 Aug), whichmay see guidance reflect both M&A and tax law changes (note: TMUS/DT have theconsiderable unallocated capacity ($20bn in the case of TMUS and >E15bn in thecase of DT) on their balance sheets for M&A, increased shareholder remunerationbeyond current plans and/or debt reduction). Recent DT noteThe sector has a total return potential of 21.7%The sector offers a potential of 21.7% total refurn opportunity to our targets. Thesector, on average, trades at a 2025E EV/EBITDAaL of 7.2x, P/E of 13.2x, dividendyieldof 4.4%,and EFCFyield of7%Ssee Figure 1).The key risks we see forthe sectorinclude a weak macro envipfpent and regulatory/competitive pressures.Page 2 9 FX:Amongmajorcurrenciesvs.EURO,USD +45bps w-0-w (-553bps ytd), GBP+9bpsW-o-W7-186bpsytd),CHF+25bpsw-0-w(-10bpsytd), NOK+36bps w-0-w(+106bps ytd), SEK +81bps W-0-w(+325bps ytd), and BRL-85bps W-0-w(+153bps ytd).RATINGS: 1) Moody's affirmed BT Group'sBaa2long-termissuerratingandmaintained a stable outlook - 09/07/20252)S&PRevises TalkTalk Telecom GroupOtlk To Neg; 'CcC+'Afrmd - 04/07/2025Deutsche Bank AG 11July2025Wireless ServicesDB X-ConnectFigure 2: Weekly stock performance in local FXETL.PAUTDI.DEZEG.LLBTYA.OQOBEL.BRVOD.LPROX.BR.STOXXTELA.VITEL.OLBT.LSCMN.S1U1.DEFNTGn.DESESFd.PANOKIA.HEKPN.ASTLIT.MITEF.MC.SXKPSUNN.SBOUY.PANOS.LSINWT.MIDTEGn.DEOTEr.ATORAN.PAELISA.HETEL2b.STCLNX.MCTELIA.STERICb.ST6%-4%-2%Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 4: SXKP Individual contribution w-o-w0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.6%-0.8%-1.0%-1.2%-1.4%-1.6%Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPPage 4 Weekly summaryRegional Telco performance in local FX & valuation metricsFigure 6: 1-week price performance2.0%1.1%1.0%0.2%0.0%-1.0%0.6%-0.7%-2.0%1.3%%0"--4.0%-3.4%-5.0%Australia &EMEAAsiaPacJapanEuropeUSANZex-JPSource : Deutsche Bank, ReutersFigure 8: 3-m price performance30.0%24.8%25.0%20.0%15.0%11.4%10.6%10.0%8.1%5.8%5.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%JapanLatAm Australia&EMEAAsiaPacEuropeNZex-JpSource : Deutsche Bank, ReutersFigure 10: EV/EBITDA (x)14.0 x12.0 x12.0 x10.0 x8.5 x8.2 x8.2 x8.0 x6.0 x4.0 x2.0 x0.0 xJapanAustralia &USAEMEAAsiaPacNZex-Jp2025E2026ESource : Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance LPDeutsche Bank AG Figure 7: 1-m price performance16.0%12.3%12.0%8.0%4.0%2.5%-4.1%0.0%LatAm-4.0%JapanEMEASource : DeuiFigure 9: YTD price performance%0'025.0%24.5%22.2%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%-4.9%0.0%USALatAmEMEASource : Deutsche Bank, ReutersFigure 11: 2025 Div yields (%)12.0%10.0%8.0%6.2 x%0'95.7%4.0%2.0%0.0%EuropeEMEAMaxSource : Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Bloomberg Finance Lp Sector performance(European Telecoms)Oyerthelastweek(ThutoThu).thetelecomssectorunderperformedthebroadermarket, with the SXKP index down 1.3% while the STOxX index was up 1.7%.The strongest performers amongst the SXKP constituents were Vodafone (+2.0%),Telenor (+0.4%), and BT Group (+0.1%).The weakestperformers amongst the SXKP constituents were Ericsson (-4.6%),Telia (-3.4%), and Cellnex (-3.1%).Outside the index, the best performers were Eutelsat (+9.3%), United Internet(+5.9%),andZegona(+4.7%), whilethe worstperformers wereOTE (-1.6%),Nos(-1.4%), and Bouygues (-1.4%).Figure 12: Telcos (SXKR) vs. the market (SXXR)950 1006850008750700650600550Sour