商业服务周报：关键主题与估值

IndustryBusiness ServicesWeeklyMay-22Sep-22Jan-23 Composite PMI (LHS)9E$sentra LFL (RHS)RS Group LFL (RHS)May-23Sep-23Jan-24May-24Sep-24Jan-255May- Sep-21Jan-22 David BrocktonResearch Analyst+44-20-754-11721Steve WoolfResearch Analyst+44-20-754-54604James BeardResearch Analyst+44-20-754-56765Ben WildResearch Analyst+44-20-754-15334Bharat RajeshResearch Associate 30%20%10%%0-10%-20%30% 11 July 2025Business ServicesBusiness Services WeeklyThe week in Business ServicesZIGUP's FY25 profits were 1% ahead of our expectations. Good demand inRental (Spain revenues +12% CC and UK +2%) led stable revenues inClaims&ServicesashirelengthsnormalisedandfollowingtheH1cyberincident, with disposal profits also normalising down 15%. Managementcited robust demand and expects mid to upper single-digit underlying EBITgrowth in its operating divisions in FY26 before taking account of disposalprofits. We made no change to our EPs forecasts. CEo Martin Wardpurchased f250k worth of shares (74,631 shares)Dcc saw Q1 profit modestly behind the prior year, consistent with itsexpectations in its seasonally less significant quarter. Energy traded belowthe prior year, and Technology was in line with the prior year. Guidance fora year of good operating profit growth remained unchanged and we shavedour operating profit estimates by c.1% into line with consensus.PageGroup's Q2 net fees declined -10.5%, broadly consistent with -9.2%in Q1 and ahead of consensus of -13%. EMEA saw net fees -17% withFrance and Germany deteriorating. The UK was -14% but sequentiallystable. The US saw fees +14%from +5% in Q1 while South East Asia grewfees +10%. We estimate that c.25% of PageGroup's fee base has returnedto growth, improving from c.12-15% in Q1. FY25 operating profit isexpected to be in line with consensus (f22m).JsG's H1 update reported revenue +5.5% and +1.4% organic implying aslowdown in Q2 to <1% (Q1 2.2%). Management called out a slower thanexpected start to the summer in HORECA, but with a slight improvement involumesinthelasttwoweeks.InWorkwear,volumeshavebeenstableandretention rates continued to improve. Management indicated confidencethat 2025 will be another year of improvement in revenue and margins,Bravida's Q2 came in below expectationsQwith organic growth of -8%(consensus -4.9%, DBe -4%) and EBTAl-3% vs consensus. ChallengingSweden and Finland). Howeyer, there are signs of greenshoots, with theorder backlog growingby SEK1.3bn vs Q1 and management seeing a highlevel of enquiryactivitemerging.Page 2 微台 11July2025Business ServicesBusiness Services WeeklyFigure 2: WoW performance of coverage stocks9.3Source : Bloomberg Finance LP, prices as on 10*" JulyDeutsche BankAG Previews for the week aheadUpcoming eventsFigure 4: Upcoming eventsDateCompany15-JulExperian15-JulRobert Walters16-JulExperian17-JulAshtead Technology17-JulDiploma17-JulRS Group22-JulMitie Group23-JulEurofins23-JulRandstad24-JulDiscoverlE25-JulBureau Veritas25-JulSGSinr-62EssentraInchcapeSThree30-JulElis31-JulJTC31-JulRentokil31-JulRobert Walters31-JulTeleperformance1-AugIntertek4-AugClarkson5-AugAdecco5-AugCapita5-AugTravis Perkins7-AugMears Group7-AugSercoSource : Company dataExperian (Buy 4,550p). Q1 trading update, 15 July. At FY results in May,management gave clear guidance for Q1 organic growth to land at 7%, inthe middle of the FY range of 6 to 8%. This follows organic growth of 7% inQ4 (9% underlying, excluding the impact of elevated data breach revenuefading in the subsequent quarters. We would note that growth in LatinAmerica in Q1 25 was impacted by floods in Brazil, an issue we do notexpect to re-occur - although we expect the wider Brazilian macroenvironment to continue to act as a drag to growth. More broadly, we thinkExperian is delivering on its scaling potential, and expect an acceleratingof the comp base, continued progress in the Consumer business, and animproving cyclical outlook in North America.Robert Walters (Buy 400p). Q2 trading update, 15 July. Q1 saw net feesdecline by 16% YoY on a like-for-like basis. Europe experienced the greatestpressures with fees 22% lower YoY with Asia Pacific 15% lower. The UKrecoveredslightlyduringtheperiodandnetfeesdeclinedbyjust4%YoYwith a return to growth in London. Following weak outlooks from its UKpeers we expect Robert Walters to outline similar trends, that demandremainslowduetoweaknessincandidateandcustomerconfidenceandthe time-to-hire remains protracted. A weak macro outlook has beenenhanced by the uncertain impact of US tariffs and provides a headwind tohiring decisions. We believe until these external factors are resolveddemand will remain subdued and management will continue to focus onPage 4 internal cost actions and improving consultant productivity.Ashtead Technology (Buy 860p). H1 trading update, 17 July. AshteadTechnology indicated trading was in line with its expectations during thefirst fourmonths of FY25,providing reassuranceover the likely outturn forthe first half. Our tracked analysis of custo