汽车周刊：一周市场更新

IndustryAuto WeeklyFigure 2: The 'Cost Down Europe'program targeted savings.00 Date11July2025Market UpdateTim RokossaHead of ResearchChristoph LaskawiResearch AnalystNicolai KempfResearch AnalystEdison YuResearch AnalystBin WangResearch AnalystNikita LalResearch AnalystWinnie DongResearch AnalystLaura LiResearch AssociateJamesMulhollandCFAResearch AssociateHuang WeiResearch AssociateBodhie FernandoResearch AssociateViraj JoshiResearchAssociateExcerptedfromresearchpublishedthisweek (Seehere) Event calendarFigure 3: Corporate announcements (2025)Forvia H1 resultsGestamp H1 resultsAugustSource : Deutsche Bank, company dataPage 2 Auto WeeklyGlobal Automotive Daily, 07th July 2025DeBLASEing the Trail - The Effects of FX (DeBlase)The US dollar has been on a weakening path since January 2025 and recently hit ayears. We believe this can be attributed to several factors, including: 1) PresidentTrump has been vocal in his critique of Chairman Powell's handling of monetarypolicy, claiming he has been slow to cut rates and he would forcibly remove him(Trump has since walked back that comment). This sort of rhetoric has called theFederal Reserve's independence into question. 2) Trump's push for lower interestrates coupled with moderating inflation has dialed up expectations of Us interestrate cuts which would likely further hurt the dollar. 3) A combination of the tradewar, whichcalls US GDPgrowth into question,and the"The Act" (formallythe"BigBeautiful Bill"), which is expected to drive up the fiscal deficit, continues to lowerdemand for US investments and is keeping treasury yields at elevated levels.Giventhat these factors can persist, we see the potential for the UsD to remain weak forthe foreseeable future. (See details here)Germany Schnappschuss - New roads, old roadblocks (Winkler)The German government plans to borrow and invest about 20% of GDP for defenceand infrastructure by 2029. That is roughly as much as Germany spent onreunification in the first half of the 1990s. As in the early 1990s, we expect to see acyclical boom in the next couple of years, with growth likely to reach about 2% asfive years of stagnation the economy has a sizable output gap to work with, andthere is no Bundesbank to spoil the party from the get-go. The fiscal impulse acrossthe Eurozone will likely be much weaker than in Germany and leave the ECB plentyof time to pivot. Yet, by 2027 or 2028 at the latest, the coming investment spree isat risk of running into a different problem that was not there in the 1990s: a lack ofpeople to build stuff. (See details here)Europe Blog - Quick thoughts on a potential EU-US trade deal(Muehlberger)As the July 9 deadline is approaching, ending the 90-day pause on "reciprocaltariffs", the EU is trying to reach a deal with the US. Yesterday, CommissionPresident von derLeyen said that the EUis aimingto close an "inprincipleagreement" with the Us by July 9. At the same time, we might see more trade-relatedannouncementsfromtheUStoday.PresidentTrumpsaidthathemightstartsending letters to various capitals as early as today, in which he will announce thetariff rate applicable from August 1. We interpret this as targeting those countrieswhere no"in-principle deal" has been found. However, if these tariffs only apply asof August 1, heightened negotiations might continue for three more weeks. (Seedetails here)Focus Europe - Rolling with the punches: A shock-based macronarrative (Wall)The ECB's new strategy intends to create a more agile monetary policy (see here)Amidnumerousshocksand structural shifts,thereislikelytobepersistentlyelevated uncertainty. In this more shock-prone world, inflation could be morevolatile with larger deviations from target and the ECB might have to rapidlytransition from one regime to another. That is, from a world where the monetarypolicy debate is dominated by the risk of undershooting the inflation target to onewhere the risk is an overshooting of the inflation target. In this note, we present ashock-based narrative for how the euro area economy is performing. In general,Deutsche Bank AG Auto Weeklyeconomies have a tendency to get pulled backto equilibrium overtime. At the sametime, unexpected shocks occur which push economies away from thenormalisation path.Thepullofnormalisation andthe pushof shocksis whatcreatesmacro dynamics. (See details here)FX Blog - Bearish the dollar, even if the rates angle isn't helping (Baker)Our bearish dollar view often attracts questions around the importance of theUsD's ongoing status as a high yielder, and how Fed policy may impact that. Thebottom line:wedon'tseethe Fedstoryhelpingourdollarviewanytimesoon.Butthe dollar drop so far isn't even exceptional, and given the valuation and flowspicture, we see plenty of downside ahead (which a large chunk of the market is yetto believe). (See details here)Investor Positioning and Flows - Just Approaching Neutral (Thatte)Last week we had noted that equity positioning had been rising but was stillunderweight