日本经济票据下周概览116337091

SepDec MarActual Kentaro KoyamaChief Economist+81-3-6730-0683 4 July 2025Japan Economic NotesPage 2Next week’s indicatorsWe believe the Consumption Activity Index for May, due on 7 July, will grow 0.0%MoM. We anticipate spending to continue to be weighed down by food inflation. Atthe same time, services consumption should be buoyed by the Osaka Expo andrelated inbound spending. We estimate that consumption overall is trending slowlyhigher. The Economy Watchers Survey for June due on 8 July should show animprovement in both the current and future condition DI. Household sentimentshould benefit from the drop in rice prices. The Consumer Confidence Indexstrengthened in June, and we believe the Economy Watchers Survey should beconsistent with those results. The June domestic corporate goods price index willbe released on 10 July. We project a slowdown to 3.0% YoY (May: +3.2%). Theongoing decline in import prices should lead to a smaller rise in goods prices. Weforecast a 0.1% gain on a MoM basis. The key item in the simultaneously releasedexport prices will be prices for passenger car exports to North America. Thoseprices dropped a cumulative 17.7% in April and May, signifying that Japanese automakers are moving to absorb much of the tariff impact by lowering their exportprices. However, that strategy will ultimately damage profitability and is notsustainable in the long term. We will be watching the June data carefully for anysign of change in this pricing strategy.US-Japan trade talksThe suspension of the increase in reciprocal tariff rates will end on 9 July. Multiplemedia reports suggest that US-Japan talks are at an impasse and a deal may not bereached in time. An agreement would at the very least reduce the uncertainty overtariffs. A reduction in the tariffs would be an additional plus. We believe that wouldraise the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike this month.On the other hand, if the parties fail to reach an agreement, we see two possibleoutcomes. One is a continuation of talks at the current tariff rates. In such a case,the uncertainty over the negotiations would persist as well. The other possibility isa hike in tariffs beyond the present levels and a discontinuation of the talks. Whilethe uncertainty would dissipate, this outcome would deliver a significant directblow to the Japanese economy. Either case would reduce the chances of a BoJ ratehike in the near future. A conclusion somewhere between those scenarios, such asa partial agreement alongside further negotiations, is also conceivable. Financialmarkets are keenly awaiting the results.Monetary policy eventsThe BoJ will hold a branch managers' meeting on 10 July. The main point will be todiscuss how or whether the US tariff strategy is impacting regional economies. Themeeting will come just after the pause on tariff hikes is set to end, so we should bealert as well to any related comments by the BoJ. Deutsche Securities Inc.Figure 3: Important schedule20-Jul 2025Upper House election30-31 Jul 2025BoJ MPM and Outlook ReportSource : Deutsche Securities Page 6Source : Sources: MoF, Deutsche SecuritiesFigure 13: Inward portfolio investment by non-residents-12-8-404812Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22EquitiesBonds and notes(JPY trn; 8-week sum)SalesAcquisitionSources: MoF, Deutsche SecuritiesFigure 15: Electric power consumption (10 electric powercompanies total)1,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2001-Jan1-Mar1-May(GWh/day)Note: 7-day average.Sources: OCCTO, Deutsche Securities 4 July 2025Japan Economic NotesPage 8Figure 23: Short-term interest rates-0.4-0.200.20.40.6(%)Sources: Haver Analytics, Deutsche SecuritiesFigure 25: Break-even inflation-0.40.00.40.81.21.62.020212022(%)Note: Excluding effects from consumption tax hike.Sources: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche SecuritiesFigure 27: Interest rate gap and FX rate125130135140145150155160165170Jan-23Jul-23USD/JPY (LHS)US1y1y-JP1y1y(OIS, RHS)Sources: Haver Analytics, Deutsche Securities Sources: Haver Analytics, Deutsche SecuritiesFigure 28: Commodity and EM share prices300350400450500550600650700202020212022Sources: Haver Analytics, Deutsche Securities Deutsche Securities Inc.Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For further information regarding disclosures relevant to Deutsche Bank Research, please visit our globaldisclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from withinthis report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the p