印度石油与天然气：OMCs获得支持

EquitiesOii & GasIndiaPuneet Gulati*, CFAAnalyst, India Energy Transition, Property & InfraHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitecpuneetgulati@hsbc.co.in+91 82 9189 7591Saurabh Jain*Analyst, India Materials and EnergyHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitecsaurabh2jain@hsbc.co.in+91 22 6164 0691Evan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition Researchevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+8522996 6619* Employed by a non-US affliateof HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewP/E (x),FY26eFY27e11.19.57.87.011.711.6Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India)Private LimitedViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Upside/Mkt cap3M ADTV(USDm)(USDm)19.5%24,77725.221.8%17,42530.812.4%10,80327.8 P/B (x)DY (%)FY25FY26eFY27eFY26e1.11.11.0461.21.81.4 FY2519.68.813.7 3.62.82.4 India petroleum product margin trends for PsU OMCsIndia diesel net marketing margins (USD/b)India petrol net marketing margins (USD/b)40(USD/b)22040(USD/b)3030200202010HHH10160-10-20W140-10-20-30120-40-30-50100-400202222334455I Net Margin (LHS)Diesel retail PricesNet Margin (LHS)Source: LSEG Datastream, PPAC, HSBCSource: LSEG Datasteam, PPAC, HSBCIndia diesel net marketing margins (INR/l)India petrol net marketing margins (INR/l)20(INR/I)1202015(INR/l)100151010580560-5-1040-5-15-1020-15-20-25-20Net Margin (LHS)Diesel retail PricesI Net Margin (LHS)Source: LSEG Datastream, PPAC, HSBCSource: LSEG Datastream, PPAC, HSBCIndia diesel combined margins (USD/b)India petrol combined margins (USD/b)5040403030202010-10-10-20-30-20-40-30Diesel (USD/b) Mkt marginPetrol (USD/b) Mkt marginDiesel (USD/b)RefcrackPetrol (USD/b) Ref crack- - Avg.- - - - Avg.Total marginTotal marginSource: LSEG Datastream, PPAC, HSBCSource: LSEG Datastream, PPAC, HSBC Auto fuels marketing margin isINR10-15/l on current oil pricesCombined refining andmarketing margins remainabove trend Fuel dispensing infrastructureIndia fuel retail outletsTotal retail outlets(000)May-25Apr-25May-24IOCL40.540.337.6BPCL23.823.721.9HPCL23.823.822.1Private/others9.29.28.7Total97.497.090.3Growth (YoY)May-25Apr-25May-24IOCL7.7%7.5%3.3%BPCL8.7%8.3%3.9%HPCL7.8%7.7%4.0%Private/others5.8%5.2%4.3%Total7.8%7.5%3.7%% shareMay-25Apr-25May-24IOCL41.6%41.6%41.6%BPCL24.5%24.4%24.3%HPCL24.4%24.5%24.4%Private/others9.5%9.5%9.7%Total100%100%100%Source: Company data, HSBC.*growth is over the end of previous financial yearAlternative fuel stationsTotal alternative fuel outlets ('000)(Nos.)May-25Apr-25May-24CNG/LNGPSU6,9916,9105,884Private8170Total7,0736,9915,954EVPSU26,19926,13816,870Private1,5801,378606Total27,77927,51617,779CBGPSU8t8347184Private535125Total401398209Source: Company data, HSBC Indian oil marketingcompanies (OMCs), especiallypublic sectorones,continuetoadd new fuel retail outlets,+0.4% m-0-mOMCs are dominating inalternative fuel stationsThe numbers of CNG and EVstations are up 19% y-o-y and56%y-o-y, respectivelyCBG outlets are also up 92%y-o-y.29%ofalloutletsnowhaveEV charging stations Petroleum and petrochemical product spreads27-Jun-4WMoM2Q241Q252Q25QoQYoyl20212022QTD69.06c95.1.678.75.767.7(8.0)(17.2)70.4101.265.560.84.780.871.664.0(7.5)(16.7)68.094.6(0.3)(0.5)0.20.70.20.30.1(0.4)0.63.45.96.8(1.0)3.53.15.62.42.13.410.72.62.00.62.01.92.00.10.00.91.91.51.10.41.21.11.20.0(0.0)0.61.113.213.2(0.0)13.08.211.13.0(1.9)11.018.8(5.4)(2.6)(2.8)(10.2)(5.1)(4.3)0.85.91.2(10.6)12.69.53.18.58.69.71.11.26.331.616.414.02.413.313.214.20.90.85.930.9(0.9)3.1(4.0)(6.7)(2.8)0.43.37.2(6.2)(18.5)(23.1)(16.7)(6.3)(31.6)(23.9)(20.9)3.010.7(11.3)(31.6)235178571621861893273712223553332231228033555234693215054733242550350277800543-56(42)(13)(160)(111)(61)499829(206)1851832142178192145037121638538322652783791011155423022852632233618921930(117)19630791847979390(3)(7)1061226274(12)48506312151731818007457%848843763-9%-10%1,0141,004750750828835766-8%-8%1,0149979209002%998937606-3%-9%1,1131,1021,0701,0403% 1,1121,1591,076-7%-3%1,4431,3249509509519359532%0%1,1861,0848508302%1,022846793-6%-22%8401,0886606403%782660621-6%-21%668851820820-918821788-4%-14%9661,128554526284684925495681732568 Diesel and petrol spreads arenow trending slightly lowerthanthelong-termaveragesRefining and petrochemicals prices/spreadsParticularsRefining (USD/b)Dated Brent SpotWTI SpotArab HeavySG-Dubai ComplexTanker rates (VLCC, Dirty rate USD/b)Arabian Gulf to JapanArabian Gulf to SingaporeProduct cracks (USD/b)GasolineNaphthaDieselJet KeroHSFOLPGChemicals spreads (USD/t)Ethylene-NaphthaHDPE-NaphthaLDPE-NaphthaMEG-NaphthaPropylene-NaphthaPP-NaphthaPX-NaphthaPTA-PXPET-MEG/PTAChemicals prices (USD/t)EthylenePropyleneHDPELDPEPPPXPTAPETLube Base oil (USD/t)Group II vis. 100 - HSFOSource: LSEG Datastream, Bloomberg, HSBC Oil & Gas team6 SGcomplexGRMsatcUSD6/bin-line with long-term averagesProduct spreads are lowerthan historical averages nowSpreads remain lower thanpre-CovID-19 levels Source: