超本地商务从挫折中恢复

EquitiesInternet Software & ServicesIndiaYogeshAggarwalHead of Research,IndiaHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimiteorogeshaggarwal@hsbc.co.in+912222681246Prateek Maheshwari*, CFAAnalyst, India Cement, IT and AutosHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimiteoprateek.maheshwari@hsbc.co.in+919819370718SagarDesaiAnalyst, India Cement, IT and AutosHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimiteigar.desai@hsbc.co.in+91 83 6919 9927*Employed byanon-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, andisnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHesitant bulls of summerThe 20th edition of the EM Sentiment SurveyClick to viewIssuer of report: HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India)Private LimitedViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Our previous reports on food delivery and hyperlocal commerceHyperlocal (XI) - Uncertainty may prevail, 12 May 2025Hyperlocal (X)- Slowing delivery, 10 Apr 2025Hyperlocal (IX)- Flexing the QC model from Convenience to Value retail, 18 Mar 2025Swiggy Ltd (SWIGGY IN) - Hold: 3QFY25: Tough environment, 6 Feb 2025Hyperlocal (VIl)- Sanity may prevail, 22 Jan 2025Zomato(ZOMATOIN)-Buy:3QFY25:Sometroubleinparadise,21Jan2025Hyperlocal (VI)- playing devil's advocate on TAM, 7 Jan 2025Swiggy: Initiate at Hold: Yet to fully 'deliver' the goods, 6 Dec 2024Hyperlocal (VI) - Discounting comparison across the QC players, 5 Nov 2024Zomato vs Swiggy- can Swiggy catch up?, 7 Oct 2024Hyperlocal Framework (V)- Owning a Dark Store - is it a lucrative business, 23 Aug 2024QC - near-term suge in supply may impact profits, 15 Jul 2024Hyperlocal Framework (IV)- Deep-dive into QC business with Zepto, 09 Apr 2024Zomate(Buy): Blinkit's ad-spend outlook, 11 Mar 2024sZomato (Buy): 2024 outlook - tough comparable from 2023, 10 Jan 2024Zomato (Buy): Hyperlocal economics - Il, 29 Aug 2023Zomato: Buy-in conversation with Zepto, 20 Oct 2022Zomato: Buy - Profitability improvement should continue, 21 Sep 2022Zomato: Buy - from over-exuberance to over-pessimism, 2 Aug 2022Zomato:Buy-HyperlocalGroceryFrameworkll,6Jul2022Zomato: Buy - Hyperlocal Grocery Framework, 10 Jun 2022Zomato: Upgrade to Buy: Time to eat the cake, 24 May 2022Zomato: Hold - Electrifying food delivery, 29 Mar 2022Zomato: Hold - Zomato and Blinkit getting closer, 16 Mar 2022Zomato:UpgradetoHold-RealOpportunityvsUnrealexpectations,24Feb2022Zomato: Reduce - Zomato's expansion strategy: an abstract painting, 13 Dec 2021Spotlight: India NEXT-Next-generation logistics: The solid e-commerce backbone, 16 Nov 2021Zomato: Reduce - Growth pains, 4 Nov 2021India Internet: Hyperlocal Economics, 24 Aug 2021Zomato: Initiate at Reduce: Not for the calorie conscious, 04 Aug 2021 GOV estimates and EBITDA margins have an interplay as well. In our view as discussed inour note Slowing delivery, 10 April 2025, we don't believe the grocery market in the top 30 cities islarger than USD120bn, while QC consensus estimates are already around USD50-60bn for FY30.Usually, non-grocery is higher in margins, but expansion in some high-value SKUs such as mobilephones is significantly margin dilutive as well. Expansion into such categories could accelerateGOV and beat our estimate, but EBITDA margins are likely to disappoint.Exhibit 2: We now value Zomato and Swiggy within the comparable valuation range ofconsumer discretionary companies in India.Next 2-yr growth30%● Trent25%● NykaaTitan20%DmartDevyani·InfoedgeJubiliantSwiggy15%MarutiEternalHavellsVoltas10%TVSBajajO- NestleHyundaiDaburMarico5%HUL0%Forward EV/EBITDA10203040506070Source: Bloomberg, HSBC researchExhibit 3: Expected revenue growth and current valuation for the consumer discretionarycompanies included in Exhibit 2Revenue CAGRAvg ROEConsumer stocksROCE (%)(FY25-FY28)(FY26-FY28)FY24FY25Maruti13%15.786.562.2Hyundai11%30.538.8.41.7releg12%29.0134.5128.7TVS12%27.7171.2221.87H8%23.674.772.9Nestle9%78.1NA65.5Infoedge17%4.821.542.5Titan17%31.832.632.6Dmart18%14.514.913.9Dabur8%18.449.538.3Voltas11%15.210.626.3Havells14%20.021.321.4Marico10%44.465.255.6Trent27%29.335.637.1Nykaa25%23.58.613.2Jubiliant14%20.518.916.6Devyani14%12.7(21.1)(5.3)Source: Bloomberg,HSBCresearch3 Exhibit 12: Bottom-up grocery TAM for the top-30 cities in IndiaWe estimate that the combined total addressable market (TAM) for grocery for the top-30 citiesin India is USD100bn, with a potential CAGR of 10% to USD160bn by FY30. In addition,assuming 30% of QC GOV by then is general merchandise, we estimate QC penetration in thetop-30 cities of 22-25%, which in our view is achievable but not undemandingTotalHHsinTop30citiesc50mAddressableHHs*c30mAvg groceryspend per HHp.m.:INR24KGrocery T!ofUSD100bnSource: HSBC estimates.*Assume 60% of HHs (households) in each city will have the tech know-how to use QC applications and the wilingness andcapability to pay INR20-25 in delivery charges per order. We have assumed four people per HH. PM = per month. Exhibit 13: Guide path to 4% margins for Blinkit from 4Q