PC提前拉货高峰已过：ASIC服务器出货量将在2025年下半年加速

EquitiesComputers & PeripheralsTaiwanCarol Juan*Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limitedcarol.cc.juan@hsbc.com.tw+886 2 6631 2862Al Wang*iate,TechnologyResearchHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited+886266312865*Employed by a non-US affliate ofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsHSBC in Extel Survey 2025Thank you for your supportSee resultsIssuer of report: HSBC Securities (Taiwan)Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com RiskstoourviewKey downside risks: (1) Weaker-than-expecteddemand for global servers, owing to the moreNRE contribution given fewer design wins for newserver projects; and (3) slower-than-expected GB200 ValuationOur 2025/26 EPS estimates are both 15% higher thanBloomberg consensus. We apply our unchanged PE multiple of c15x, which is the trading average during 2020-22, to our 2026econservative capex plans of major CSPs; (2) lowerEPS of TWD224.07. We think the target PE multiple is justifiedas we estimate the 2024-27 EPS CAGR to be 30%, similar tothe 2020-22 EPS CAGR of 28%. We apply our target PE to our server ramp-up.2026e EPS, deriving our TP of TWD3,400. Our TP impliesc33% upside and we therefore maintain our Buy rating. Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s)as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviewsorforecasts expressed herein,including anyviews expressedonthe back page ofthe research report,accuratelyreflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Carol Juan and Al WangImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock shoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions.Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingFrom 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:The target price is based on the analyst's assessment of the stock's actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 12months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock willbe classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy or aHold; when itisbetween5%belowand5%abovethe current shareprice,the stock will be classifiedasa Hold;when itisbetween5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more than 20%below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce.Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, changein target price or estimates).Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price.Prior to this date, HSBC's rating structure was applied on the following basis:For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock's domestic or, as appropriate.regional market established by our strategyteam.Thetarget price fora stock represented the value the analyst expected thestocktoreachoverourperformancehorizon.Theperformancehorizonwas12months.ForastocktobeclassifiedasOverweight,the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including themonths (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock waspoints for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands were classified as Neutral.*A stock was classified as volatile if its historical volatility had exceeded 40%, if the stock had been listed for less than 12 months(unless it was in an industry or sector where volat