美国食品：哦，SNAP！一个重大而美好的更新

On July 4th, President Donald Trump signed his Big Beautiful Bill(BBB) into law. AmongthevariousprovisionsarecutstoSNAP(accordingtotheNewYorkTimes,thelargestcutsince the program began in 1939)and a revision to the terms of the ThriftyFood Plan. TheCongressional Budget Office estimates that these program cuts will save $ 186B through2034, with $68.6B specifically attributable to changes in work requirements and $37.3BfromchangestotheThriftyFoodPlan.Asof2024,theSNAPprogramdistributed~$94BaccordingtotheUSDA,ornearly9%ofthe$1.15TspentonFoodAtHomein2023.At first glance, the BBB is less punitive than its predecessor drafts suggested backinMarch-weestimatethatSNAPbenefitswillbecutby~16%by2034.However,theBBB increasestheagerangeofrecipientsthatarerequiredtofollowwork requirementsfrom 54 to 64. The BBB also lowers the maximum age of dependents for receiving SNAPbenefits without fulflling the work provision from 18 to 14 years old.The BBB also shifts some payment responsibility onto the states. Depending on~50k case investigations each year), some states will have to begin paying for a portion ofthe SNAP program in 2027 (capped at 15%)Although not enshrined in the BBB, we believe that the wave of state legislationnafional ban. Thus far (as of July 8th, 2025), RFK Jr's Make America Healthy Again (MAHA)e agenda has resulted in six states (Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, lowa, Nebraska, and Utah)havingwaiversapprovedtoexcludesodaand,sometimes,candybeginningin2o26,withatleastsixotherstatesproposingorfilingsimilarwaivers(Montana,Kansas,WestVirginiaTexas, Louisiana, and Colorado). We think that the ultimate end goal is most likely afederal ban on soda expenditures (and possibly other "junk" food categories withlow nutritional value) using SNAP benefits.Within our coverage, HSY and K could be most affected by such moves, and MDLZ'scookies business could come under pressure, although we estimate that this is onlyaround 13% of company-wide sales. www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingBYNDMCPB0CAGMGISMHSYMSJMMKMKHCMLWMMKC0MDLZ0SMPL0TSN0SPXGIS, SJM base year is 2025;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe rate CPB, MKC, MDLZ, SMPL, and TSN Outperform.We rate BYND, CAG, GIS, HSY, K, KHC, LW, and SJM Market-Performs微信U.5. FOOD c 91eBERNSTEIN|SOCIETECENERALECROUP DETAILSOn July 4th, President Donald Trump signed his Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) into law. Among the various provisions are cuts to SNAP(according to the New York Times, the largest cut since the program began in 1939) and a revision to the terms of the ThriftyFood Plan.1 The Congressional Budget Office estimates that these program cuts will save $186B through 2034, with $68.6Bspecifically attributable to changes in work requirements and $37.3B from changes to the Thrifty Food Plan.2As of 2024, theSNAP program distributed ~$94B according to the USDA°, or nearly 9% of the $1.15T spent on Food At Home in 2023.THE BBB'S EFFECTS ON SNAPbe cut by ~16% by 2034. A few months ago, we published a note that cited the Senate's then-proposal of $1B over 10 yearsto SNAP and the House's then-proposal of $23OB of cuts over 10 years (US Retail & Food: Oh SNAP! Potential SNAP budgetcuts and implications for US retail and food companies). At the high end, the House's draft bill implied an annual incrementalcut of SNAP benefits by ~$4B, but the BBB seems much less draconian. Over the next decade, the cuts related to nutritionare estimated to total ~$186B cumulatively by adding the savings each year. We believe that the cuts that are most relevant toour coverage and to the reduction in SNAP benefits (as received by participants) is closer to $106B, of which $68.6B are frommodifications to the Work Requirements Provision and $37.3B are from the re-evaluation of the Thrifty Food Plan. Combined,these two line items in the BBB should constitute a ~15.6% reduction in SNAP benefits by 2034 vs. the $94B distributed in2024 (Exhibit 1).The BBB increases the age range of recipients that are required to follow work requirements. Under current guidelines,able-bodied SNAP recipients between the ages of 18 and 54 with no dependents must fulfill specific work requirements toreceive SNAP benefits, but the BBB extends this age range to 18 and 64 next year. Estimates of the magnitude of the workrequirement provision's effects vary: the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that this change alone will result in1 in 8 SNAP participants being at risk of losing some level of food assistance, and the Congressional Budget Office estimatesthat over 2 million people will lose SNAP benefits entirely.4 The Urban Institute estimates that 5.4M people will lose some orall of their family's monthly SNAP benefits, with an average loss of $254 per family per month for those whose coverage willbe affected (versus an average payment of $332 per SNAP household in 2023). 56 The BBB also lowers the maximum age ofThe BBB also shifts some payment responsibility ont