SSE 与国家电网：我们英国首选股的并列比较

nomic insulationviaregulatory constructs.Wewww.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingSSE.LN0OLDNG/.LN0OLDEDMESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedNG/.LN valuation is Adjusted P/E (x);:Source:Bloomberg,Bernstein estimates and analysisINVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSBoth SSE and NG are compelling, with attractive RAV growth, asset footprints in supportive jurisdictions, and macroeconomicinsulation via regulatory constructs. We have similar upsides on both stocks and we see any UK macro induced weakness inboth stocks as a buying opportunity.We present summary financial metrics for the two companies in Exhibit 1 below. SSE is currently trading at a discount toNational Grid despite higher growth across EPS, DPS and RAV over FY25A-FY31E, predominantly due to its business mix whichalso includesunregulatedbusinesses.EXHIBIT1:SummaryfinancialmetricsMetricBERN RatingBERNUpsideEPS growth FY25A-FY31EDividend growth CAGR FY25A-FY31EP/E FY26EP/E FY27EPremiumtoUKRAVYE26EPremium to Group RAV (XE2SE)DividendyieldFY26E微微Divldend yield FY27EEV/EBITDA FY26EEV/EBITDA FY27ERAB growth CAGR FY25A-FY31ESource: SSE, National Grid, Bernstein analysisEUROPEAN UTILITIES &CLEANENERGY C SSENGOutperformOutperform24.1%20.9%8.4%6.7%97.0%2.1%12.1x13.3x10.2x11.3xe2.5%14.7%2.5%23.1%3.7%4.7%4.0%4.8%10.5x11.4x9.7x10.3x18.7%8.7%BERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP 2 DETAILSTwo of our top picks within Northern European Utilities for 2025 are SSE and National Grid. In this note we examine the twocompanies side by side while also updating our models for the recent draft determinations.FOOTPRINTCOMPARISONIn this section we analyse the companies' relative operational footprints across capital allocation and earnings. SsE and(including hydro) and gas generation, whilst for National Grid, the balance comes primarily from regulated activities in the US.Both businesses are attractive, benefiting from supportive regulation and a high degree of revenue visibility.NATIONALGRIDAs we show in Exhibit 2, National Grid's EBIT mix is broadly stable, with the US rising modestly (+ 1ppt) in its EBIT contributionover the forecast period, with the UK networks' combined share growing from c.51% to c.54%, with UKET taking share fromUKED.EXHIBIT2:National GridadjustedEBITmixevolution100%%06EBIT80%Share of Group Adjusted70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Source: National Grid, Bernstein analysis and estimatesNational Grid's current capital plan allocates c.38% to UKET, driven by the significant step-up in investment from the RIlO-T3price control. After accounting for more than 50% of the past 2 capital plans, the US falls to less than 50% over FY25-FY29.EUROPEAN UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY NGAdjustedEBITevolution,FY25A-FY31E44%44%44%44%44%47%45%16%15%17%17%16%22%21%39%39%38%38%37%29%28%FY25AFY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30EFY31EUKET UKED US regulated OtherBERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP SSEAs we show in Exhibit 4, SSE's earnings mix is increasingly shifting towards Networks, which are expected to account for c.54%of EBIT by FY31E, vs c.43% in FY25A.EXHIBIT 4: SSE adjusted EBIT mix evolutionEBITShare of Group AdjustedSource: National Grid, Bernstein analysis and estimatesAs we show inExhibit 5,SsEhasmeaningfully increasedthe share of its capexallocatedtonetworks,which has risen by c20pps over the last 4 years, and which we forecast will grow by a further c.20ppts in the next UK transmission regulatory period.EUROPEAN UTILITIES &CLEAN ENERGY SSE Adjusted EBITevolution, FY25A -FY31E100%10%11%13%11%%0615%16%80%13%12%15%17%16%16%70%30%60%34%35%%OS40%33%33%52%40%43%30%20%35%36%38%39%33%10%13%22%0%FY25AFY26EFY27EFY28EFY29EFY30EFY31E-UKETSSERenewables■UKEDThermal and EPM■OtherBERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP COMPARISON OF RETURNSPerformance at the companies' regulated UK networks is very similar, with little to choose between them on metrics such asRORE. Regarding the other business lines, National Grid's US assets are achieving close to 95% of the allowed return, whilstSSE's recent renewable investments have largely exceeded hurdle rates. Looking forward, SSE is allocating an increasing shareof its capital to Networks, where there is overlap with NG, and less to Renewables, where there is not, and as such the companyreturns' profiles are more likely to converge than diverge.UK REGULATED NETWORKS PERFORMANCEAs we show in Exhibit 6,for the currentprice control in UKpower transmission, which runs from April 2021to March 2026RORE performance is broadly comparable between the 3 network operators, with SSE and NG both earning similarly fromfinancial outperformance, whilst NG is stronger on totex and SSE on other incentives.EUROPEAN UTILITIES & CLEAN ENERGY BERNSTEIN SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP5 By way of comparison, we also show performance data for RllO-T1 in Exhibit 7, llustrating that historically National Gridregulatory framework (e.g. via the Advanced Procurement Mechanism) we do not see any read-across from RllO-