移动革命：软件定义汽车

This note forms part of our Mobility Revolution series. It is well known that the movingassemblylineintroducedbyFordoveracenturyagorevolutionizedtransportation,marking the shift from horses to automobiles. Today, the global automotive sector is rapidlyprogressing inareas likeelectrification,automation,and informatization,whichcouldleadtoasimilarorevengreaterinnovation intransportation.Theseadvancementsaresettonotonlyredefine the concept of cars but also transform the very essence of mobility. In this series, weexplorekeytrends and the excitingfutureoftheautomotive industry.What is an SDv? As we kick off our series, this report first focuses on Software-DefinedVehicles (SDV), which have been making headlines in recent years. The key questionis: What exactly is an SDV? Different definitions exist among markets, automakers, andindividuals depending on the technology (software/hardware) and service (user/vehicle). Inthis instance, we define it as anext-generation vehicle with advanced functions,achievedby continuously updating capabilities through cloud communication: SDVs have keyrequirements, segmented by functionality (vehicle control/infotainment) and domain (in-car/out-car/development environment), and the Over The Air (OTA) update will unlock newvalue in mobility. SDVs can also be categorized by level, from Level O (conventional) to Level4+,wherevehiclesgainfunctionalitysimilartonewmodels via software updates.Mostvehicles today remain at Level 2, enhancing certain functions through OTA.SDV deinand outlook. While logically forecasting future SDV demand is challenging atthisstage, our analysis, based on publicly available information from various governments/Ecompanies, suggest global SDV sales penetration could reach 76% by 2035 (~76 millionCunits). In terms of regional penetration by 2035, forecasts and our estimates indicate ~90%Sgovernment announced its target of reaching 30% SDV market share by 2030 and 2035.Positioning of SDVs in Japan's Mobility DX Strategy. In May 2024, the Japanesegovernment announced its Mobility DX (Digital Transformation) Strategy and positionedSDV as one of the core pillars for the country and the industry to focus on. The strategydefines three main areas where major global competition will arise: vehicle development,mobility services,anduse ofdata.Inaddition,theJapanesegovernment hasestablisheda10-year roadmap to prepare for the mobility digital transformation.Trends in SDV development. Challengers like Tesla, Xiaomi and XPeng are leading SDVdevelopment, unhindered by legacy business constraints, and accelerating progress byvertically integrating hardware, software, and user experience into cohesive ecosystems.Japanese automakers are following with SDV rollouts set to begin in 2025 with Toyota'sRAV4andHonda'sOSeriesin2026,bothfeaturingin-houseproprietaryOSplatforms.Among European automakers, BMW and Volvo stand out: BMW is preparing its NeueKlasseplatformwithadvancedcentralized architectureand OTAcapabilities,buildingonthe experience gained from having already sold ~1Om OTA-ready vehicles, while VolvohaspartneredextensivelywithtechfirmsandlauncheditsfirstSDVEX90in2024.USautomakerscontinuetoadvancetheirSDVplatformsbuthaveadjustedsomeambitiousplans amid cost and execution challenges. Indian automakers remain in the early stages,with a few beginning to explore connected features and localized OS initiatives. www.bernsteinresearch.com O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedF, STLA, PSNY, RIVN, AML.LN, P911.GR, VOW3.GR, RACE, MBG.GR, BMW.GR, RNO.FP, STLAP.FP, MM.IN, MSIL.IN estimate is Adjusted EPS; F, GM, STLA,VOLCARB.SS, AML.LN, P911.GR, VOW3.GR, RACE, MBG.GR, BMW.GR, RNO.FP, STLAP.FP, MM.IN, MSIL.IN valuation is Adjusted P/E (x); PSNY, RIVNvaluation is EV/Sales (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSJAPAN AUTOSWe expect the roll out of SDVs by Japanese automakers to kick off with Toyota's new RAV4, set to launch in 2025, followedby Honda's 0 Series, which is scheduled for launch in 2026. Additionally, automakers such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan arestartingto introduce SDV models specificallydesignedfortheChinesemarketincollaborationwithlocalpartners.Japanesedevelopment to focused development aligned with company strengths. While Toyota and Honda are pursuing proprietarysoftwareplatform/OSandbroadexternalpartnerships,others likeSuzukiandSubaruaretakingmoretargetedorcost-sensitive approaches. With Japan's government positioning SDVs as a national priority and setting a 30% penetration targetby 2030-2035, we expect strategic initiatives across the sector to accelerate, although the pace and direction of progressvary by automaker. We rate Suzuki as Outperform, Toyota and Honda as Market-Perform, Nissan, Mazda and Subaru asUnderperform.CHINA AUTOSChinese automakers are at the forefront of software-defined vehicles. The swift adoption of EVs and fierce competition amongChinese OEMs haveacce