印度金融：有保障的增长 - 启动对住房金融公司的研究

We expand our coverage of the financial sector with the initiation of five non-bank lendersintheaffordablehousingfinancesegment.Rising incomes,rapidurbanization,andlow mortgage penetration set the stage for a secular scale-up in mortgage credit, withOutperform ratings to HomeFirst Finance, Aptus, and Aadhar, and Market-Performratings to Aavas and PNB Housing Finance.Mortgages - the big driver of retail credit growth: The past decade's biggest valuecreation stories were centered around expanding formal financing access - over 200mn consumers added, with borrower growth outpacing loan growth. With ~60% of thelaborforcenowhavingaccesstocredit,weexpectthenextlegofgrowthtocomefromrising credit per borrower, led by mortgages. Mortgage penetration in India (~11% of GDP)remains well below China (~30%) and developed markets (>50%), while non-mortgageretail credit is already >30% of GDP (vs. <30% for most EMs/DMs). We estimate a steadyincrease in mortgage penetration to drive a USD 1.5 tn mortgage opportunity by FY35EAffordable mortgages - the USD 5oo bn lending opportunity: We expect affordablemortgage arket. Specialized lenders focused on low-income, informally employedboryowers - with operationally intensive models - stand to gain share in this segment.The segment remains attractive with good profitability (>3% RoA), and growth. The keydifferentiation will be a lender's ability to replicate its operating model consistently acrossSmultiple states.Our preferred picks: We initiate on the following stocks with an Outperform rating.HomeFirst - Our Top Pick (TP: INR 1,650): HomeFirst stands out for its demonstratedability to consistently replicate its operating model across multiple states. It also benefitsfrom its smaller size, faster growth, superior productivity metrics, and greater flexibility tosustain profitability compared to peers.Aptus (TP: INR 4o0): Aptus's higher share of fixed-rate loans and small business lendingpositions it wellin a falling rate environment, particularly given the now-reasonablevaluations.Aadhar (TP: INR 550): As the largest and most geographically diversified player in thesegment, Aadhar serves as a good proxy for the sector. We expect it to maintain its steadygrowth trajectory of ~20% AUM CAGR.The laggards: We initiate on the following stocks with a Market-Perform rating.Aavas (TP: INR 2,070): Aavas lags peers on yield and profitability and has seen a sharpslowdown in growth recently. While a near-term rebound is possible, inconsistent outcomesfrom its geographic expansion make us cautious on its long-term outlook.PNBHF (TP: INR 1,o2o): While the shift toward smaller-ticket loans-as prime mortgagessegment, with high reliance on balance transfer-ins and DSA sourcing, raises concernswww.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingAADHARHF.IN0AAVAS.INMAPTUS.IN0HOMEFIRS.IN0PNBHOUSI.INMASIAXCOVERAGE INITIATIONO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates andanalysis.INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSWe are bullish on the affordable mortgage lending segment in India and we initiate coverage with a constructive view on theaffordable housing finance companies (AHFCs), assigning Outperform rating to HomeFirst Finance (HFF), Aptus ValueHome Finance (Aptus), and Aadhar Housing Finance (Aadhar), and Market-Perform rating to Aavas Financiers (Aavas)and PNB Housing Finance (PNBHF)INDIA FINANCIALS c 9eBERNSTEIN|SOCIETECENERALE CROUP Table Of ContentsSummary.Mortgages - the key growth driver for retail credit.Retail credit growth - the financial inclusion story of the last decadeThe story ahead - more (MORTGAGE) credit per borrower.Affordable housing - the familiar story of non-banks capturing the mass market segmentsAffordable housing - an INR 50 trillion lending opportunity by FY35E.AHFCs- A differentiated model.What could go wrong?What will set the winners apart?The ability to replicate a successful model across multiple geographiesOther Drivers of differences in growth and profitabilityCoveragecompanies-what we likeand whatwedon't.HOMEFIRST - the best franchise in this segment.APTUS - the higher beta' playAADHAR - the segment proxy...AAVAS - waiting for the growth rebound.PNB Housing - too fast for comfort.OurforecasDETAILSSUMMARYWe initiate coverage with a constructive view on the affordable housing finance companies (AHFCs), assigning Outperformratings to HomeFirst Finance (HFF), Aptus Value Home Finance (Aptus), and Aadhar Housing Finance (Aadhar), andMarket-Perform ratings to Aavas Financiers (Aavas) and PNB Housing Finance (PNBHF).Retail credit has been the key driver of credit growth in India over the last decade (Exhibit 3) and is likely to remain so. However,products such as mortgages. This marks a shift from the financial inclusion narrative of the last decade, during which ~200million consumers were introduced to formal credit (Exhibit 4)through the efforts of banks and NBFCs (Non-Banking FinancialCom