巴克莱菜单定价数据库：25年第2季度因价值导向和通胀缓解而有所缓和

Restricted-External Industry UpdateU.S. RestaurantsNEUTRALU.S. RestaurantsJeffrey A. Bernstein+12125263855jeffrey.bernstein@barclays.comBCI, USPratik Patel+1 212526 4438pratik.m.patel@barclays.comBCI, USAnisha Datt+1 212 526 1880anisha.datt@barclays.comBCI, US the 27th straight month. With that said, the gap continues to be narrowly rangebound(100-200bps in each of the past six months), which is encouraging for restaurants. See ourrestaurant industry note from 6/12/25 entitled "Commodity Cost Tracker - June '25...InflationRemains Tempered, but Beware of Proteins" for detailed thoughts. Restaurants must becautious when taking incremental menu pricing, as such increases the risk of accelerating trafficdeclines. But with inflation still elevated for certain commodities, and with certain geographiescontinuingto experiencestate-mandatedwage inflation,selectrestaurants continueto believeincremental menu pricing is justified. And this is despite ongoing / accelerating backlash onhigher absolute prices, led by lower-income cohorts. We believe the recent market volatilityspurred by a series of tariff announcements, contributing to softer consumer confidence, onlyadds another layer of uncertainty on the appropriate level of menu pricing going forward. Seeour restaurant ingystry note from 4/10/25 entitled "Tariff Insulation... BUT Demand Destructionon the Comelas Confidence (& Employment) Ease" for detailed thoughts.eC2 Casual diners' approach to menu pricing remains highly scrutinized, as traffic trends remainnegative and as consumers push back on higher absolute menu prices. Several major brandsare now leaning more heavily into value and/or discounting in response. And quickserviceconsumer perception that the category has become too expensive for the core, lower-incometarget audience.With that said, this note is focused on our more discretionary / co-op brands. Casual dining two-year trends (per Black Box) were relatively strong in 4Q24, likely in response to closure ofbasis), comps eased materially in January / February, which most attributed to inclementweather & holiday shifts, though we suspect there were incremental underlying macroApril, and even further in May, approaching 4Q24 levels. As for June, two-year trends easedmodestly, with casual dining being the main driver of the deceleration. To be clear, absolutecomp levels are still disappointing, and are still being driven by average check, with the allimportant traffic component still negative. And in the face of ongoing elevated market volatility& geopolitical uncertainty, we closely monitor employment & consumer confidence, both ofwhicharehistorically mostclosely correlatedtorestaurant sales.3 Note: Specific to our Data Science team's web scraping analysis, to better reflect menu itemchanges, starting in 1Q24, we switch to comparing prices of common items featured on the menuin both the current & prior quarter, rather than tracking a fixed item list. This revised approachenables us to better accountfor any price adjustments resulting from the rollout of new items overtime.4 Inflation and Margins... Compare & ContrastConsumer pushback on outsized pricing is evident. The May'25 CPI data showed persistencein the unfavorable gap between supermarkets & restaurants. FAH (i.e., supermarket) inflationwas below FAFH (i.e., restaurant) inflation for the 27th straight month, with FAH up 2.2%, up20bps vs. April, while FAFH was up 3.8%, down 10bps vs. April. The unfavorable restaurantspread was therefore~160bps in May, though we were pleased to see a narrowing from ~190bpsin April. And worth noting that during the 1Q25 earnings cycle, many restaurants & foodserviceenvironment, a potential harbinger of a broader macro slowdown and likely a major catalyst inthe industry's current pivot towards aggressive value offers.FIGURE 3. Food at Home vs. Food Away from Home Indices, January 2007 -May 2025A (unadjusted)FAH is below FAFH for the 27th month, which was preceded by seventeenconsecutive months of favorability; the current differential is ~160bpsunfavorable.Food awayfrom home (i.e. Restaurant)Food at home (i.e. Supermarket)We've been impressed by co-op restaurants that recovered margins from the depths ofcoviD. The recovery can be attributed to accelerating sales momentum (for some), elevatedmenu pricing & efforts to more effectively manage costs. As we look through '25, with salestrends volatile & menu pricing to be more tempered amid consumer backlash & softer foottraffic, we believe restaurants that have not yet seen restaurant margin recover may have themperpetually lag pre-covID peaks. 5 Pricing Comparison Across Regions & BrandsCross-Region ComparisonOperating costs (i.e. labor, occupancy) vary by region, and therefore menu prices follow. Belowwe detail the relative meal price in the top 10 populated metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) toregions, while MSAs in the South - Atlanta, Dallas & Houston - are more affordable.5.3%2.4%1.3%0.0%0.2%-2.7%-2.7%HoustonMi