CMBS 大杂烩：寻找麻烦

pegts ff the industrial sector, given the surge in supply Restricted - External Lea Overby+1 617 342 4293lea.overby@barclays.comBCI, USAnuj Jain, CFA+1 212 412 1404anuj.jain2@barclays.comBCI, US Inthisweek's Smorgasbord,weprovideanoverviewoftheCMBSmarkets: CMBS spreads were flat to tighter this week and are generally trading inside ofpre-"Liberation Day" levels. We have an up-in-credit bias, given the increasing softness in themacro data, coupled with better relative value at the top of the capital stack.: Issuance activity remains solid, with several deals pricing this week and several others in theworks.: Rating actions were all downgrades, and we continue to think that downgrade risk iselevated.91The authoring research analyst would like to thank Harsh Kumar for his assistance inco@ection with thepreparation of this report.C s微信2 Spreads and Relative Value4Issuance Activity5Recent Rating Actions63 Spreads and Relative ValueCMBS spreads were flat to tighter over the week, with the credit curve flattening (Figure 3).CMBS LCFs continue to underperform investment grade corporates and look more appealing onand Figure 5).We continue to recommend using this risk-on period to trim exposure to more marginalholdings, rotating up the capital stack, into agency CMBS and more liquid shelves, especiallygiven the better relative value at the top of the stack. Coupled with broader macro uncertainty,we remain very negative on BBBs, and we also recommend moving out of single-As.Awayfromconduits,SAsBspreadshavetightenedsignificantlyoverthepastmonth,althoughthey remain mostly wider on the year. We prefer retail and office deals, which might still benefitfrom more conservative underwriting and fewer borrower optionality features. We alsorecommend remaining up in credit, as lower enhanced SASBs carry concentrated risk andhigher leverage.Recent Levels1-Week1-MonthQTDYTDAvgHighChangeChangeChangeChange00-59S61120-91289107-3-8-235125155-2-5-3020148210-12-20-3020192270-10-20-2580416515-28--1617142178-1-8-30-2135185-2-10-358121165-5-102063272365-10-23-45-62tte480-6-18-1335228315-4-4-167145170-5-5-1310187220-7-7831216260-7-7326252320-13-13-131037753000014453-2-NANANANA 52-WeekYE 2025Diff. FromLowSt. Dev.ForecastAvg.7910-41017110-49710015-1315012021-819015528-1726031065-1155011019-8NA10028-30NA0620-16NA2153913NA2408-104NA17037-16NA12514-11NA16019-15NA18026-3NA21035-14NA00m78-65NA374-248NANANANA4 Issuance ActivityThis quarter started on a good note, with 11 deals totaling s$5.8bn pricing. SASB dealsdominated new issuance, across eight deals totaling $4.obn. A 10-year conduit deal also cameto market,bucking the trend of predominantly five-yearissuance.Another conduit dealisin themarket,and Commercial MortgageAlert reports a steadyflow of SAsBdealsahead,including apotential office SASB. In agency CMBS, Freddie Mac plans to issuance five more deals thismonth,andthePCissuancepipelineremainsrobust.BenchmarkProptypeSize ($mn)-795+rMF754SOFR+/J+IN300SOFR+MF234+rDC1500SOFR+RT925J+RT78+rOF247J+IN395SOFR+OF330+rLO210SOFR+556+r AAAAAAMax LifePricing Date Benchmark BenchmarkBBB+/BBB/(Yrs)SpreadBBB-Class10.010-JulA-587--/-4.9inr-6AS/A-253/39-/-/-5.08-JulA170-/-/30013.88-Jul-/-/ -5.07-JulA170-/-/3755.02-JulA115-/ -/-5.12-JulA205-/450/-5.12-JulA167-/-/3255.02-JulA150-/-/3505.01-JulA105-/-/2355.01-JulA180-/-/3755.027-JunA-394-/-/3955 Recent Rating Actionsand interest AAA tranches. Across the agencies, S&P was the most active, accounting for 23 ofthe 53 downgrades. With delinquencies continuing to rise, we think downgrade risk remainselevated. 6 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Anuj Jain, CFA and Lea Overby, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any orall of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually,"Barclays").the local time where the report was produced and may differ from the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019orcall+1-212-526-1072.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliates regularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or ot