2025年7月欧洲银行业利润率监测：企业贷款增长持续领先

IndustryMargin Monitor0.7%eCSItalyAustria 6.4%.0%puePortugalareaUKGermanyNetherlandsEuro Benjamin GoyResearch AnalystRobert NobleResearch AnalystGiovanni Razzoli, CFAResearch AnalystAlfredo AlonsoResearch AnalystSharath KumarResearch AnalystMarlene EibensteinerResearch AnalystAtul HanamanteResearchAssociateGunjan BhattResearch AssociateRishika GargResearch AssociateMiriam KillianResearch AssociateWe value banks using DDM and SOTPmethodologies. Our top picks (at currentshare prices) are: BNP (EUR74.88), Erste(EUR71.15), Eurobank (EUR3.03), IntesaSanpaolo (EUR4.87) and Natwest(GBP483.20). Key upside risks include: asoft landing,low deposit beta, better-than-expected loan growth, resilient assetquality and regulatory forbearance. Keydownside risks include: a significantEuropean recession, high deposit beta,higher loan losses,political &regulatoryrisks. 10.9%8.7% 7 July 2025BanksMargin MonitorMargin Monitor July2025Please let us know if you would like to receive the full dataset, including charts weused to publish in previous, longer editions.Chart of the monthFigure 2: Corporate loan growth by countries16.0%14.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%-2.0%-4.0%Source : ECB, Deutsche BankMargins 2Q25 vs. 1Q25Figure 3: Development of customer margins in 2Q252Q25L ATFront book (bps)Back book (bps)Delta (bps)vs 1Q25vs 4Q24vs 3Q24Vs 2Q24vs 1Q25vs 4Q24vs 3Q24vs 2Q24Source : Deutsche BankPage 2 ■Dec -24 (YoY%)■May-25 (YoY %)eC微名BECYDEFIFRGRIE287249298271284294203375394294221240167328191329306128421325317181+47+80-11-222022373-24E+-2633-5932-7716-70-20-67.121222044Se12+22+16-21+1664+21-3962+2478+23mates, ECB, BOE NLPTUKEA305439198257342342232216-25+223038-1410-58 7July2025BanksMargin MonitorLoan growth gaining momentumFigure 4: Euro area loan growth rising from its lowest level in nine years10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%Source : Deutsche Bank, ECBFigure 5: Total YoY loan growth (retail + corporate lending)8%5%4%3%2%;1.0%1.2%1%0.2%0%1%2%-0.7%Source : DeutFigure 7: Deposits grew across countries8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%Source : Deutsche Bank, Centra/ Bank dataDeutsche Bank AG Household loan growth YoY.Total loan growth Yoy800002223344Vov-Feb-25 (YoY %)May-25 (YoY %)3.0%3.0%tizations,6% 6% 6%5%4% Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon request*Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies,and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primaryour website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EguityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report,important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer.Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectissuers and the securities of those issuers.'In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and'will not receive anycompensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Benjamin Goy, Robert Noble, Giovanni Razzoli,AifredoAlonso,SharathKumar,MarleneEibensteiner.Page 4 Deutsche Bank AG 7 July2025BanksMargin MonitorEquity rating dispersion and banking relationshipscompanies covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship MIFID Investment & Ancllary ServicesEquity Rating and Dispersion KeyThe Equity Rating Dispersion Chart depicts the following:The proportion of recommendations that are rated"buy","sell"and"hold" over the previous 12 months. This is shown forsecurities issued in the stated region e.g. "Europe Universe". See rating definitions below. This is represented by the"Companies Covered" bars in the chart. The percentage value displayed above the bar is the proportion as a percentage.E.g. 50% above the "buy" / "Companies Covered" bar means that 50% of DB's equity research covered companies overthe past 12 months have a "buy" rating.Next to each of the three respective bars showing the proportion of "buy", "sell" and "hold" recommendations we providetwo additional bars to show:- The proportion of "buy","sell" or"hold recommendations where Deutsche Bank and or/Affiliates provided MIFIDInvestmentorAncillaryServices inthepast12months.Thisisrepresented inthe"MiFiDInvestmentandAncillaryServices" bar. The percentage value displayed above the bar shows the proportion of Companies Covered with the givenrating where DB has also provided MIFID Investment and Ancillary Services in the past 12 months. E.g. 50% above thealso received MIFID Investment and Ancillary Services from DB.- The proportion of "buy" (or"sell" or "hold) recommendations where Deutsche Bank and or/Affiliates has providedInvestment Banking services in the past 12 months for which it has received compens