世界银行-菲律宾的不平等、教育和职业变化

11163 Inequality, Education, and OccupationalChange in the Philippines Nadia Belhaj Hassine BelghithFrancine Claire FernandezBenjamin Aaron Lavin Poverty and Equity Global DepartmentJune 2025 Policy Research Working Paper11163 Abstract Despite significant progress in reducing poverty, the Phil-ippines continues to face high inequality, which stayedelevated in the early 2000s as the economy grew. Althoughinequality has gradually declined since 2012, it remainsamong the highest in Southeast Asia. This paper examineshow changes in education levels and occupational struc-ture have shaped the wage distribution over the past twodecades, particularly how changes in the relative supplyof skills and the structure of employment have influencedwage gaps in recent years. Using two decades of labor forcesurvey data, the paper examines the wage premium and thesupply of skilled workers in the Philippines, finding that theslow growth in college-educated workers has sustained highwage premium for skilled workers. Unconditional quantile regressions reveal that returns to both college education andhigh-skill occupations increase monotonically over the wagedistribution, contributing to the persistence of inequality.Changes in occupational structure have also influencedincome distribution. Low- and middle-skilled jobs sawrelative wage gains from 2002 to 2012, but middle-skilledoccupations experienced the highest growth from 2012 to2016—a key driver behind falling wage inequality. Employ-ment trends followed a similar pattern, with middle-skilledjob growth peaking in 2012-2016. Recent trends suggesta shift away from middle-skilled jobs, though it remainsuncertain whether this reflects structural changes in thelabor market or temporary disruptions. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Inequality, Education, and Occupational Change in thePhilippines Nadia Belhaj Hassine Belghith, Francine Claire Fernandez, and Benjamin Aaron Lavin 1.Introduction Over the past three decades, the Philippines has made significant strides in reducing poverty, drivenby sustained economic growth, structural transformation, and expansion of education. The nationalpoverty rate declined markedly from 49.2 percent in 1985 to 16.7 percent in 2018, reflecting thesynergies between economic expansion and social development. However, the COVID-19pandemic disrupted this progress, increasing the poverty rate to 18.1 percent by 2021, underscoringthe challenges of sustaining gains amidst global shocks and labor market disruptions. Economic growth has been an important driver of poverty reduction. Between 1985 and 2021,gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an average annual rate of 4 percent, or 1.9 percent percapita, despite episodes of economic volatility. Growth was particularly robust in the years leadingupto the pandemic,reflecting structural adjustments and improving macroeconomicfundamentals. The pandemic-induced recession in 2020 caused a 10.5 percent contraction in percapita GDP, but recovery began in 2021 with GDP growth rebounding to about 5 percent, signalingresilience and prospects for renewed economic momentum. The economic structure of the Philippines, like many Asian economies, has undergone profoundtransformation over the past decades. Agriculture’s share of employment and value-added hassteadily declined, giving way to the expanding services sector and, to a lesser extent, industry. Thisstructural shift reflects a broader transition of labor from agriculture to wage work, particularly inservices, driving sustained economic growth and improving living standards. These changes werefurther supported by advancements in educational attainment, as the share of the workforce aged25 and older with primary education or less fell from 55 percent in the late 1980s to 25 percent in2022, while those with some college or higher education rose from 20 percent to about 30 percentover the same period. However, significant gaps persist, with only 20 percent of the workforcecompleting college by 2022, highlighting ongoing challenges in skill development and upwardmobility. Income inequality has been a persistent challenge in the Philippines, even amid significantreductions in poverty. During the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, inequality surged, with theincome Gini coefficient reaching 47.5 percent in 1997, and it