现在是开发的时候了吗？完整报告

The PCA numbers say there is 16.8% premium gradevacancy, but this is concentrated in older premiumbuildings. Over the past five years, seven premium-gradetowers were added to Melbourne’s CBD, with consistentlystrong leasing outcomes. Most of these assets reached sub-5.0% vacancy shortly after completion, with standoutperformers such as 80 Collins St South and 2 MelbourneQuarter achieving full occupancy. These outcomes areparticularly compelling when benchmarked against thebroader CBD vacancy rate, which remains elevated at 18.0%.Ina market with elevated incentives and vacancy rates; anaccess to services and excellent location is increasinglyimportant in driving leasing outcomes. The performance ofMelbourne’s newest premium towers highlight the strengthof demand for well-located, high-quality stock and offers alower risk profile for developers' future premium officeprojects. Melbourne offices have faced price corrections and capitalvalue falls before. However, when this has occurred therehas been far more space coming on to the market (as a % ofstock). Looking at what was delivered in the 3 years aftercapital values began to fall (so virtually unstoppable) 5.9%of stock was being delivered into the market following thedot.com crash and 3.8% was in development after the GFC.The latest fall in capital values began with 2.4% ofadditions expected and this is falling rapidly. This augurswell for the overall office market in Melbourne and theprospect of the return of rental growth. Previously, therewas a high development pipeline as capital values fell, nowthere is not, particularly for premium.The table below also shows that capital value recovery isinvariably driven by rental growth, yields do not need toget back down to their previous levels. Indeed, after the dotcom crash yields did not return to their previous lows for 61quarters (that’s over 15 years and after the GFC!). They onlystabilised and dropped back from their highs. The rentalrecovery pushed the capital values back to their previoushighs and beyond.We are not forecasting yields to return to their record lowsany time soon (we expect them to stabilise and thencompress slightly). But with very low supply and a growingeconomy, this will be enough, the implications are thatcapital value recovery will be fuelled by rental growth, nottotal yield recovery. Delivering a premium building, withlimited competition for new premium space, strengthensthe likelihood of obtaining this rental growth.Even now the pre-commit on 51 Flinders Ln is achievingrent of circa $1,500/sqm on its top floor. This more thanmatches the standard upper floor pricing in the best towersin the Eastern Core, which have themselves been underless pressure than other buildings during the downturn. The London market has faced similar cyclical volatilityleaving developers in a quandary. For example, siteclearance for the Shard began in 2008 and building beganin 2009. With the GFC in full flow many projects facedfinancial problems. The Shard only continued due tostrong backing from the State of Qatar. Their argumentwas little was being built so when complete it would leasewell. They paid off a pre-commit from Transport forLondon (think PTV) to get better quality tenants. The aim,build when there is no premium building been built andlet to high-end tenants. It completed in November 2014and started taking tenants with vacancy rates in Londonnear a low at 6.5%. It was fully let in 2017. TheCheesgraterthen followed suit, building began in 2010, completed in2014 and, being in the City, got fully let by 2015.The Pinnacle also started in 2008 and was planned as theUK’s tallest building. With no pre-let, and in the depth of arecession, construction stopped in 2011 with a 7 storey liftcore all to show for £400m of prep work–it became theStump. In 2013 it was re-designed but stalled again. AXAbought into the project in 2015, and it was redesigned as 22Bishopsgate. The Stump was removed in December 2015and building began at a low point for vacancies. However,it only got completed as 22Bishopgatein 2020! With a lotof competition and vacancy rates rising, it was only finallyfully let in Q1 2025–that’s this year.