燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告

Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesCONTENTS本周观点总结供应02炼厂开工全球炼厂检修国内炼厂产量与商品量 进出口国内燃料油进出口数据全球高硫燃料油进出口数据全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 价格及价差亚太区域现货FOB价格欧洲区域现货FOB价格美国地区燃料油现货价格纸货与衍生品价格燃料油现货价差全球燃料油裂解价差全球燃料油纸货月差 需求国内外燃料油需求数据 库存全球燃料油现货库存 2 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures本周观点总结全球燃料油产量总体月度环比开始回升，主要来源于中东、俄罗斯地区的产量开始逐步恢复。同时，随着中东地缘风险解除，大量船舶恢复运输，中东燃料油出口数量迅速恢复，全球燃料油供应将逐步向宽松格局演变。本周新加坡市场Bunker-FOB价差继续走强，船燃需求仍有支撑；粘度价差继续上行，反映发电需求仍处旺季。本周燃料油价格总体下跌，但在下跌过程中低硫仍然保持相对强势，高低硫价差来到了季节性高点。高硫方面，随着Rabigh炼厂结束检修，中东地区再无大型炼厂检修，同时一部分俄罗斯炼厂的检修也将在本月接近尾声，在北半球消费旺季和炼油利润的支撑下，预计上述两个高硫主产区的供应将随着炼厂提负持续增加。低硫方面，日本炼厂仍有装置检修，巴西方向的出口在逐步恢复，但其初步的出口计划大部分面向西半球市场，短期不会对亚太市场造成明显利空。FU：2850~3000LU：3500~37001）单边：单边震荡走势为主2）跨期：FU、LU月差维持低位3）跨品种：FU裂解可能随海外现货走弱出现下跌；LU-FU价差短期维持高位中东地缘冲突；中美贸易谈判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures炼厂开工02-1002-2403-0803-1903-3004-1004-2105-0205-1505-2606-0606-1706-2807-0907-22原油：常减压：产能利用率：中国炼厂（周）202120222023201820192020 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球炼厂检修0200040006000800010000120001400001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球CDU装置检修量2018201920202022202320240200400600800100012001400160001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-12全球加氢裂化装置检修量201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内炼厂燃料油产量与商品量01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：产量：中国（月）2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：国产：商品量：中国（月）20212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内外燃料油需求数据01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油：船供：销量：新加坡（月）20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31 库存04 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油现货库存0500010000150002000025000300003500001-0101-1301-2602-0802-2103-0503-1603-2704-0704-1804-2905-1105-2306-0306-1406-2507-0607-1807-3108-1208-2509-0709-2010-0310-1610-28新加坡重质油库存（千桶）20182019202020212022202320242025020040060080010001200140016001800200001-0201-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2904-0904-2105-0405-1605-3106-1106-2207-0307-1407-2808-1008-2309-0509-1709-3010-1410-27欧洲ARA燃料油库存20182019202020212022202320242025 价格及价差05 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures亚太区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-31新加坡3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-0109-1309-2510-0710-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-18富查伊拉3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures欧洲区域现货FOB价格010020030040050060070001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30西北欧3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-1011-2212-0412-1612-30地中海3.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures美国地区燃料油现货价格02040608010012001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾3.5%燃料油FOB价格2018201920202021202220232024202502040608010012014016018001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0610-1810-3011-1111-2312-0512-1712-30美湾0.5%燃料油FOB价格20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures纸货与衍生品价格050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU主力2021202220232024050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-1609-29FU连二2021202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures燃料油现货价差010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-2009-01新加坡高低硫价差201920202021202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球燃料油裂解价差-50-40-30-20-100102001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10新加坡高硫裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025-60-50-40-30-20-1001001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-1710-2911-10西北欧3.5%裂解价差2019202020212022202320242025 进出口06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内燃料油进出口数据05000001000000150000020000002500000300000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31燃料油，不含生物柴油：出口数量合计：中国（月）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures全球高硫燃料油