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纳米比亚信贷发展与宏观金融风险：纳米比亚

2025-07-11 国际货币基金组织路仁假

Namibia Credit Developments and Macro-Financial Risks

Introduction

Namibia's financial system is relatively large, with total banking assets accounting for 91% of GDP, dominated by South African subsidiaries. The non-bank financial sector, twice the size of the banking sector, primarily consists of government pension funds and other investment schemes. Commercial banks heavily rely on wholesale funding from non-bank financial institutions, representing 15% of GDP.

Credit Developments: Trends and Composition

Trends: Bank credit to the non-financial private sector stabilized at 50-60% of GDP from 2005 until the COVID-19 pandemic, after which it declined, resulting in a negative credit gap.
Composition: Approximately half of bank credit to the private sector is allocated to mortgages, a high proportion relative to the country's financial development level. A growing share of credit has been directed to the public sector.
Public Sector Credit: Since 2014, the share of credit to the public sector has steadily increased to finance the budget deficit, rising further during the pandemic. Claims on the public sector (as a % of GDP) rose from 4.7% in 2014 to a higher figure in 2024.
Private Sector Credit: Bank credit to the private sector has declined since the pandemic, both in terms of share of total domestic credit and as a % of GDP, leading to a negative credit gap. The credit gap rose in the early 2010s, peaked around 2015, and fell before the pandemic, turning negative during the pandemic and remaining negative through mid-2024.
Sectoral Composition: Within private sector lending, mortgages dominate credit to households. Credit to businesses is concentrated in the commercial and services sectors (30%), while credit to the tradable sector (mining, agriculture, fishing) accounts for less than 20%.

Housing Market and Mortgage Credit

High Mortgage Share: Namibia's mortgage lending share exceeds 50% of total bank lending, higher than many advanced economies at similar credit-to-GDP levels. Within mortgages, 77% is for residential purposes.
Housing Price Dynamics: Structural issues, including demographic changes, urbanization, and supply constraints, have driven up land and housing prices. Demand-side challenges, such as slowing real wage growth since 2013, have exerted downward pressure on housing prices since 2017.
Correlation with Housing Prices: The correlation between household mortgage loans and housing prices has been weak, with real housing prices peaking in 2017 and declining since then.
Non-Performing Loans (NPLs): Household mortgages contribute about half of NPLs, which increased significantly since 2017. Higher household leverage ratios have emerged as housing prices stagnated, while rising interest payments since 2022 have further increased debt servicing burdens.

Banking Resilience

Systemic Resilience: Despite the slowdown in credit growth since 2020, the banking system has remained liquid, profitable, and well-capitalized. NPLs peaked at 6.8% in March 2021 but moderated to 5.6% in December 2024 due to recent credit growth.
Bank-Sovereign Nexus: Domestic credit to the public sector more than doubled over the past decade, with banks' exposure to the public sector above the African average and comparable to South Africa but higher than Botswana and Mauritius.
Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs): NBFIs hold significant government debt, amounting to 20% of GDP as of December 2024, further increasing systemic interconnectedness.

Policy Recommendations

Macroprudential Tools: The Bank of Namibia (BoN) should enhance its macroprudential toolkit, including implementing the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) to build capital during booms and release it during downturns. Targeted measures, such as a systemic risk buffer for sovereign exposures, should also be considered.
Mortgage Market Regulation: The BoN should reverse the elimination of downpayments on residential properties to maintain minimum lending standards and prevent future NPLs. Collecting data on debt-to-income (DTI) and debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratios for new property buyers would support targeted borrower-based measures.
Credit Access for Businesses: Addressing limited credit access for private businesses is crucial for fostering private sector-led growth. Further studies should identify constraints hindering businesses from accessing credit, informing effective policy design and supporting a stronger link between credit and business cycles.

Credit Developments andMacro-Financial Risks inNamibia Yumeng Gu and Lilian Muchimba SIP/2025/093 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on May 28, 2025. This paper is alsopublished separately as IMF Country Report No 25/133. 2025JUL IMF Selected Issues PaperAfrican Department Credit Developments and Macro-Financial Risks in NamibiaPrepared by Yumeng Gu and Lilian Muchimba Authorized for distribution by Xiangming LiJuly2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on May 28, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/133. ABSTRACT:This chapter examines the evolution of bank credit in Namibia over the past two decades. Ithighlights notable trends and the composition of credit growth, with a particular focus on the private sector.Additionally, it identifies potential macro-financial vulnerabilities and provides policy recommendations tomitigate associated risks. Furthermore, it underscores the importance of promoting access to credit bybusinesses. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Gu,Y, and Muchimba, L. (2025). Credit Developments and Macro-FinancialRisks in Namibia, IMF Selected Issues Paper, African Department, SIP/2025/093. Washington, D.C.:International Monetary Fund. Credit Developments and Macro-Financial Risks in Namibia Namibia Prepared by Yumeng Gu and Lilian Muchimba1 A.Introduction 1.The Namibian financial system is relatively large.As of end-2024, Namibia ‘s total banking assetsamounted to 91 percent of GDP. Most Namibian banks are South African subsidiaries. The non-bank financialsector, twice the size of the banking sector, is mainly comprised of a fully funded government pension (GIPF)and other pension funds, insurance funds, and collective investment schemes. Commercial banks heavily relyon wholesale funding from non-bank financial institutions, representing 15 percent of GDP at end-2024. 2.Taking stock of Namibia’s credit developments over the past two decades reveals two salientfeatures concerning trends and composition. Trends: Following an initial phase of financial deepening, Namibia's bank credit to the non-financial privatesector (households and businesses) stabilized at approximately 50 to 60 percent of GDP since 2005.However, this ratio began to decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a negative credit gap.Before the pandemic, the gap was positive. Composition: Approximately half of Namibia's bank credit to the private sector has consistently gone tomortgages, a notably high proportion relative to the country’s level of financial development, while agrowing proportion of credit has been allocated to the public sector. B.Credit Developments: Trends and Composition 3.Prior to the COVID-19 Pandemic, Namibia experienced growth in domestic credit as apercentage of GDP from 2009 to 2019. During this period, Namibia’s credit-to-GDP ratio approached theregional average. The trend reversed after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, causing the ratio to dip afterpeaking in 2020, even though claims on public sector (in percent of GDP) rose as noted below. Since then, theratio has been declining, underscoring the challenges in credit growth recovery in the aftermath of thepandemic. 4.Since 2014, the share of credit to the public sector in total domestic credit has increased steadily to finance the budget deficit(Figure 2).Rising public current expenditures, particularly in wages andsalaries, have outstripped revenue, turning the fiscal balance from a surplus of 6.2 percent of GDP in 2007 to adeficit of 4.7 percent of GDP in 2014 (Figure 3). The fiscal expansion was part of the Targeted InterventionInitiative announced in the FY2011/12 budget, which aimed at promoting job creation and fostering a morediversified economy. Claims on the public sector (in percent of GDP) rose further with the onset of theCOVID-19 pandemic, coinciding with the widening fiscal deficit. 5.Meanwhile, bank credit to the private sector, both as a share of total domestic credit and as apercent of GDP, has declined since the pandemic, resulting in a negative credit gap.Estimates of thecredit gap based on the private sector credit per capita1show a similar pattern across the five methodologiesused: credit gap rose in the early 2010s, peaked around 2015, and then started to fall. Four of the methodsentered negative territory at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. By the end of the analysis period, allmethodologies indicated that Namibia’ credit gap was negative as of mid-2024 (Figure 3). sector credit over the past twodecades.Additionally, mortgagesdominate credit to households. Withinlending to businesses, credit extendedto the commercial and servicessectors consti

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