吐司（TOST）：维持25%以上的增长非常可行

2024A2025E4,960.06,030.34,960.06,024.562.0373.0546.362.0373.0566.5 2026E7,419.17,240.6706.9766.7 Samad Samana * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-4649 | ssamana@jefferies.comTrevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comJeremy Sahler, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2475 | jsahler@jefferies.com The Long View: ToastInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•TOST is a leading provider of cloud-based restaurant technology solutionswith an underpenetrated TAM and broad platform with considerable up/cross-sell opportunities that should drive growth over the next several years.•Growth will be fueled by TOST's strength in the US-based SMB market, butalso both upmarket, internationally, and within the retail segment as thecompany scales its platform and expands its go-to-market into additionalgeos and grows the TAM.Base Case,$50, +18%•TOST continues to penetrate its domestic TAMas restaurants adopt cloud-based solutions.•Recurring GP grows at high-twenties%in2025 and low-twenties % in 2026, driven bycontinued location growth and expanded ARPUas the company adds additional modules to itsplatform.•TOST begins to move upmarket as it scales itsplatform with additional capabilities to cater tolarge logos.•TOST begins to move into additional geos andinternational sales start to ramp.•Gross and operating margins improve as theplatform scales•Our price target is based on a DCF model.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1) Customer Privacy:TOST's software utilizes customer data in many of itsmodules to enhance the platform experience; doing so in a way that protects customer privacy will beimportant to reduce regulatory and reputational risks that can lead to decreased revenue, lower marketshare, and regulatory actions involving potential fines and other legal costs. 2) Employee Engagement,Diversity & Inclusion:The software industry is characterized by relatively low representation from womenand minority groups. TOST may be able to alleviate hiring and retention difficulties by recruiting from adiverse pool of applicants.Company Target(s):NAQs to Mgmt: 1)What resources have been allocated to protecting customerprivacy?2)What processes are in place to ensure recruitment addresses a diverse pool of candidatesand that diverse employees are retained?ESG Sector Deep Dive: SoftwarePlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$62, +46%•Recurring GP compounds at 30%+ driven byfaster than expected location growth and ARPUexpansion driven by adoption of new modules.•Upmarket momentum accelerates faster thanexpected as the platform is adapted to servelarger logos.•International momentum accelerates morequicklythan expected as TOST's GTM issuccessful in new geos.•Our price target is based on a DCF model. Downside Scenario,$36, -15%•Recurring GP compounds at <20% driven byslowerthan expected location growth andslowing ARPU expansion driven by stagnatingmodule adoption.•Upmarket momentum decelerates as TOSTfaces competition from legacy enterprise POSproviders.•TOST struggles to gain international footingand growth in new geos expands slower thanexpected.•Our price target is based on a DCF model.Catalysts•Earnings•Upcoming conference and public appearances•New product launches•Potential M&A 2 Double Clicking on Our AssumptionsExhibit 3 - TOST Historical Net Adds and Forecast Ex-Growth Segments (000's).+13274005010015020025020192020Source: Company Data, JefferiesExhibit 4 - Growth Segment Location Growth Forecast (000's).2.03.03.08.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.020.01Q25eSource: Company Data, JefferiesWe assume that TOST already has roughly ~8k locations across the Food and Beverage Retail, Horizon1 International, and Enterprise segments within the 1Q25 run-rate based on previous disclosures atthe Investor Day and new logo wins announced on earnings calls. We expect this to grow to ~19k by2027 driven by steady net adds across all three segments (see Exhibit 4).Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. +17+22577920212022Net Adds (k)2.93.63.610.12025eF&B RetailH1 International Exhibit 5 - Growth Segments Expand the TAM Runway.69532%-2004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600Core US Ex-EnterpriseSource: Company Data, JefferiesWe estimate a TAM of 220k and 280k locations for F&B Retail and Horizon 1 International, respectively,based on TOST's Investor Day disclosures. For the Enterprise segment, we estimate a TAM of ~180klocations derived from Technomics' top 500 US restaurant brands by locations (See Exhibit 5;note:we deduct these 180k locations from TOST's reported US restaurant TAM of 875k). Based on our locationgrowth forecast, TOST will achieve penetration of 2-3% across each of the three growth segmentsby 2027. Taken together, the TAM expands from