财政道路上的滑坡与滑行

Slipping and sliding on the fiscalpath We raise our FY25 fiscal deficit and debt estimates, as thedeficit has already exceeded the full year target. To tryand balance the books, the govt announced a small stimulusin FY25, and a smaller deficit in FY26. Amid poor growth, morestimulus may be needed in FY26, taking debt past 70% ofGDP. Shreya Sodhani+65 6308 4525shreya.sodhani@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore •Thailand's fiscal picture looks precarious with the full year deficit target for FY25 (Oct24-Sep 25) breached in six months.Higher expenditure, with record high subsidies, haveexacerbated thesoftnessin revenue growth amid a weaker economy. •As of April, the deficit is running at 110.5% of the budgeted target, though adjusted for'carry-over' spending we estimate that the deficit is closer to 90% of the full year target.With the period for carry-over spending expiring in March, continued highexpenditure could aggravate the FY25 fiscal deficit. •We raise our fiscal deficit forecast for FY25 to THB911.2bn (~4.8% of GDP), fromTHB865.7bn (~4.6% of GDP), with the digital wallet payments (~THB157bn) nowrepurposed for longer-term projects.This should alleviate some concerns about the FY25deficit, with part of the stimulus payments likely to be pushed out to FY26. Additionally, wenote that the last six months of the fiscal year usually perform relatively better than thefirst half. •That said, a smaller stimulus of only THB157bn announced by the government – comparedwith reports of a THB500bn stimulus1– along with a FY26 budget implying a negative fiscalimpulse suggest thatin trying to balance fiscal books and economic support, thegovernment'seffortscould fall short ofoffsettingthe impact fromtariffsandstructural challenges. •We think the government may have to announce an additional stimulus in FY26,which, unsupported by revenues, could raise the debt-to-GDP ratio to the 70% ceiling. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 9. •While extra borrowing could potentially be funded through instruments other thanloan bonds, we think the stretched government books amid thetrade-offbetweensupporting growth and managing the fiscal picture, may raise concerns at ratingagencies. Slipping and sliding In Thailand: Sweat on the ceiling, we discussed the potential financing for a ~THB500bn fiscalstimulus for the Thai economy – an idea floated by the Finance Minister for an economyweighed down by structural concerns, high US reciprocaltariffsand weaker tourism. Weestimated that the 70% debt-to-GDP ratio would be breached by FY26 or soonafterif thegovernment opted for a THB500bn stimulus. However, the final stimulus unveiled by thegovernment amounted to a much smaller THB157bn, mainly from the reallocation of digitalwallet funds. However, the Thai government's fiscal books look precarious, even without anannouncement of any fresh stimulus to counter the UStariffs.The fiscal deficit as of April2025 is running at 110.5% of the budgetedTHB865.7bn for full year FY25, having breached thetarget in only six months of the fiscal year (FY25 started in October 2024 and ends in September2025). This is also the largest ever budget deficit recorded by Thailand, in full fiscal year terms.In terms of GDP, the fiscal deficit as of April stands at 5.0% of GDP, just shy of the 5.2% in thepandemic era. This is despite the government not having paid for any fiscal stimulus to staveoffthe impact of UStariffson the economy, other than the two tranches of payments under the"digital wallet" scheme. The materially higher deficit has been a result of both higher spending andsofterrevenuecollection: As of April, the government has spent 58.5% of the budget, higher than the past fiveyears' average, while revenue stands at 49.3% of the budget estimate, lower than the past fiveyears' average. On a relative basis, rapid spending has driven the wider deficit, averaging a28.6% y/y increase this FY, while revenue has expanded 4.8%. Only a part of the double-digitincrease in expenditure is due to a low base – from the FY24 budget which was passed onlyafterhalf the FY was over – while in level terms (sa), spending is also elevated (see Figure 4). Source: CEIC, Barclays Research Subsidy-driven expenditure to be exacerbated by slowing revenues Revenues have beensofteron the excise front this year, mainly due to government policies oflowering excise for fuel and EVs. VAT collections, on the other hand, have been manageable –likely in part due to tourist consumption – keeping revenues nearl