第100号法令对越南啤酒行业的影响

2024 Update—KPMG in Vietnam Foreword 01 After the COVID-19 pandemic, the beermarket in Vietnam began to show signsof recovery in 2022, surpassing the salesvolume of 2019. This study seeks to offer insightsinto how beer companies inChina, our largest neighbor,navigated comparable regulatorychallenges to sustain growth. The research team compiled amix of hard data, includingstatistics and consumerresearch, as well as soft data,such as market signals andpublished insights, to yield morepragmatic results for the study. Despite this upward trend, 2023 provedchallenging for the industry due toseveral factors: The VietnameseGovernment intensified the enforcementof Decree 100, rising costs of productionmaterials, and consumption scrutinyamid economic uncertainties. We initially hypothesize thatVietnam and China haveconsiderable parallels in theirsocial, political, and economiclandscapes, as well as in theconsumer product sector,particularly in the beer industry. 02 On 16 February 2024, the representativeof the Ministry of Industry and Tradeconfirmed that this year’s Tetconsumption of beer and alcohol hasdecreased compared to 2023, attributedto higher awareness amongst peopleconcerning Decree 100. By examining the Chinesecontext, our goal is to extractvaluable lessons applicable toVietnamese companies. Contents 01Executive summary03 02DUI* laws update05 03Vietnam and China market comparison07 04Beer in China12 05Beer in Vietnam19 *Driving Under Influence Summary 01Non/lowalcoholicbeer 03Thebeerindustryfacesheadwindsahead 02Premiumizationtrend Non/low-alcoholic beer has yet to gainpopularity in China and has been on adownward trend since 2017. 04Thealcohol–freewavefromyounggeneration The rigorous enforcement of Decree100, a sluggish economic forecast,escalating production costs, andhigher special consumption taxes onalcoholic products are collectivelyinfluencing beer prices andconsumption trends in Vietnam. In China, premium beer is anticipated tosee significant growth, driven by theexpanding affluent and upper-middle-class. During Tet 2024, Non/low-alcoholicbeer sales only accounted for 0.5% oftotal beer sales. The sales mainlycame from activation events andbundle promotions to raise productawareness.* In Vietnam, while the middle class isgrowing rapidly, the affluent and upper-middle-class segments are not expandingat the same rate. As a result, the trendtowards premium beer in Vietnam mayprogress more gradually. There’s an emerging consumerneeds for sustainability and healthconsciousness globally. * Sharing from Industry Insight Contents 01Executive summary03 02DUI* laws update05 03Vietnam and China market comparison07 04Beer in China12 05Beer in Vietnam19 *Driving Under Influence DrivingUnder Influence(DUI)lawsofChina[UpdatedinDec2023]andVietnam(Decree100-unchanged) sharemanysimilaraspects. •InChina, as per the new guidelines issued on December 18, 2023, individuals guilty of driving under influence and associated offenses, like hit-and-run, facestricter criminal liability. However, cases of driving under influence with clearly minor implications or damages may be exempt from criminal charges. • RegardingVietnam’sregulations, people who drive under the influence of alcohol that cause accidents are punishable up to 15 years in prison, and/or a fine of upto 100 mil. VND. Contents 01Executive summary03 02DUI* laws update05 03Vietnam and China market comparison07 04Beer in China12 05Beer in Vietnam19 *Driving Under Influence DespiteoptimisticpredictionsfortheVietnamesebeermarketfrom2023onward,therecentretailauditinsightfor2023 indicatednegativegrowth.Thisimpliesuncertaintyfortheupcomingperiod. For the first time in 20 years with the exception of Covid period, Vietnamese beer market witnessed negative growth,which is inconsistent with Euromonitor’s prediction of positive growth recovery after Covid. BeerconsumptioninChinaisplateauing,influencedbystringentDUIlawsandanagingpopulation.AlthoughEuromonitor predictsapositivegrowthtrajectoryforVietnam'sbeermarket,othersourcesindicateamorecautiousoutlook. China’s beer industryfaced challenges in 2020 and 2022 due to COVIDlockdowns. Despite this, the fluctuations in growth rates and the projected recoveryperiod show less variation compared to Vietnam. Vietnam’s beer industrymade a remarkable recovery in 2022, leading tooptimistic growth projections from Euromonitor for the subsequent years. However, Vietnam's GDP growth slowed to 5.05% in 2023, a marked decreasefrom the 8.02% expansion in 2022, falling short of the 6.5% target and even belowthe average annual growth rate of 5.87% over the past decade. Consequently,Retail audit insight reviewed that actual growth in 2023 was [-5%]. As of December 2023, China's revised DUI law, which severely penalizes drivingunder influence, may further impede beer market growth. Additionally, decreasedinterest from younger consumers and modest economic growth expectations are alsoinfluencing