聚焦：Tiktok东南亚增势亮眼，极兔或尽享单量红利

交通运输2025年07月06日推荐 （维持）证券分析师：吴一凡电话：021-20572539邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360516090002证券分析师：吴晨玥邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360523070001证券分析师：梁婉怡邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360523080001证券分析师：霍鹏浩邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360524030001证券分析师：卢浩敏邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com执业编号：S0360524090001联系人：李清影邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com行业基本数据股票家数(只)122总市值(亿元)33,030.92流通市值(亿元)28,300.57相对指数表现%1M6M绝对表现-0.2%2.4%相对表现-3.1%-3.1%相关研究报告《华创交运|低空经济周报（第44期）：中国民航局成立通用航空和低空经济工作领导小组，顶层设计持续推进》2025-07-0624/0724/0924/1125/0225/042024-07-08~2025-07-04交通运输沪深300华创证券研究所 -7%4%14%25% 占比%0.023.163.4512M10.4%-5.2%25/07 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号目录一、聚焦：Tiktok东南亚增势亮眼，极兔或尽享单量红利...............................................41、Tiktok东南亚增长势头强劲..................................................................................42、东南亚快递龙头极兔或尽享单量红利.................................................................43、投资建议：.............................................................................................................5二、行业数据跟踪...................................................................................................................5（一）航空客运：近7日民航国内旅客量同比+4.3%，平均含油票价同比-4.8%...5（二）航空货运：6月30日浦东机场出境货运价格指数周环比+0.5%，同比-7.6%.......................7（三）航运：VLCC运价环比-18%，BDI环比-6%，SCFI环比-5%.........................7三、市场回顾：本周交运板块下跌0.2%，跑输沪深300指数1.7pct............................12四、投资建议：强调看好“红利+快递”...........................................................................13（一）红利资产：重视产业逻辑.................................................................................131、公路：继续首推四川成渝（A+H）...................................................................132、港口：长久期价值或推升估值弹性...................................................................133、铁路：长久期+改革红利，重视铁路行业投资机会.........................................13（二）快递：重点推荐顺丰控股+申通快递...............................................................14（三）我们继续强调积极看待航空股暑运投资机会.................................................14五、风险提示.........................................................................................................................15 2 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210号图表目录图表1 TikTok Shop东南亚GMV及市占率........................................................................4图表2极兔东南亚市占率.....................................................................................................5图表3极兔东南亚件量及增速.............................................................................................5图表4民航国内市场供需.....................................................................................................6图表5民航国内客座率MA7................................................................................................6图表6民航跨境市场供需.....................................................................................................6图表7民航跨境客座率MA7................................................................................................6图表8民航国内全票价.........................................................................................................7图表9民航跨境全票价.........................................................................................................7图表10浦东机场出境航空货运价格指数...........................................................................7图表11香港机场出境航空货运价格指数...........................................................................7图表12航运子行业数据.......................................................................................................8图表13 CCFI指数一周表现.................................................................................................8图表14 SCFI指数表现..........................................................................................................8图表15 PDCI指数一周表现.................................................................................................8图表16 BDI指数表现...........................................................................................................8图表17原油轮日收益TCE指数（$/day）.........................................................................9图表18成品油轮日收益TCE指数（$/day）.....................................................................9图表19 VLCC分航线TCE（$/day）..................................................................................9图表20 VLCC月度TCE（万美元）.................................................................................10图表21苏伊士油轮分航线TCE（$/day）........................................................................10图表22阿芙拉油轮分航线TCE表现（$/day）...............................................................10图表23成品油轮分船型TCE表现（$/day）...................................................................11图表24 SCFI指数表现........................................................................................................11图表25美国零售商联合会月度进口箱量预测.................................................................12图表26美西内陆卡车滞留时间（周度）.........................................................................12图表27 Clarksons堵港指数-美线与欧线...........................................................................12图表28 A股交运行业周涨跌幅（06.30-07.04）..............