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IMF Country Report No.25/167 GUINEA-BISSAU 2025 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION, EIGHTH REVIEW UNDERTHE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY, REQUESTS FOR REPHASINGOF ACCESS, EXTENSION OF THE ARRANGEMENT, WAIVERS OFNONOBSERVANCE OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA,MODIFICATION OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA, ANDFINANCING ASSURANCES REVIEW—PRESS RELEASE; STAFFREPORT; STAFF STATEMENT; AND STATEMENT BY THEEXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FORGUINEA-BISSAU July2025 In the context of the2025Article IVConsultation,EighthReview Under theExtendedCredit Facility,Requests forRephasing ofAccess, Extension of the Arrangement, WaiversofNonobservance ofPerformanceCriteria, Modification ofPerformanceCriteria, andFinancing Assurances Review,the following documents have been released and areincluded in this package: •APress Releaseincluding a statement by the Chair of the Executive Boardandsummarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during itsJune 30, 2025consideration of the staff report on issues related to the Article IV Consultation andthe IMF arrangement. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMFfor the Executive Board’sconsiderationonJune 30,2025,following discussions that endedonApril 11, 2025,with the officials of Guinea-Bissauon economic developments and policiesunderpinning the IMF arrangement under theExtended Credit Facility. Based oninformation available at the time of these discussions, the Staff Report was completedonJune13,2025. •AnInformational Annexprepared by the IMFstaff. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared bythestaffsof the IMF and the World Bank. •AStaff Statementupdatinginformationon recent developments. •AStatement by the Executive Directorfor Guinea-Bissau. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.orgWeb:http://www.imf.orgPrice: $18.00per printed copy International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV Consultationand Completes the Eight Review under the Extended CreditFacilitywithGuinea-Bissau FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •The IMFExecutive Boardtoday concluded the 2025 Article IVconsultation and completedthe eighth review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Guinea-Bissau. Thecompletion of the reviewallows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 4.73 million (aboutUS$ 6.5million), bringing total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR 35.04 million(about US$ 48.1million) •Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteriaand three out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. Thecontinuous Structural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuousStructural Benchmark on the expenditure committee (COTADO) was missed. •Growth is expected to reach 5.1 percent in 2025 while inflation should average 2 percent.The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025, reflectingbetter terms of trade. The authorities are committed to achieving a fiscaldeficit of 3.4percent of GDP in 2025, to put public debt on a firm downward trajectory. The economicoutlook is positive but remains subject to significant domestic and external risks. Washington, DC–June 30, 2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) concluded today the 2025 Article IV consultation1and completed the eighth reviewunderExtended Credit Facility(ECF) arrangement for Guinea-Bissau.The three-yeararrangement,approved on January 30, 2023, aims to secure debt sustainability, improvegovernance, and reduce corruption, while creating fiscal space to foster inclusive growth.TheExecutive Board granted an augmentation of access(140 percent of quota or SDR 39.76million) on November 29, 2023. The completion of the eighthreviewenables the disbursementof SDR4.73 million (about US$ 6.5million) to help meet the country’s balance-of-paymentsand fiscal financing needs. This brings total disbursement under the arrangement to SDR35.04 million (about US$ 48.1million).The authorities have consented to the publication of theStaff Report prepared for this consultation.2 Program performance was mixed. Seven out of nine Quantitative Performance Criteria andthree out of four Structural Benchmarks for end-December 2024 were met. The continuousStructural Benchmark on debt service payments was met while the continuous StructuralBenchmark on the expenditure committee (COTADO) was missed. In completing the eighthreview, the Executive Board granted waivers for the non-observance of quantitativeperformance criteriabased on corrective actions taken by the authorities [including therevenue and expenditure measures adopted as prior actions for the review], approved theauthorities’ request f