东盟低碳能源技术路线图（ALERT）-第一阶段：东盟关于氢和氨的长期战略

By ERIAASEAN Centre for Energy ASEAN Low-carbon Energy Technologies Roadmap (ALERT) – Phase I: ASEAN’s Long-term Strategy on Hydrogen and Ammonia Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)Sentral Senayan II 6thFloorJalan Asia Afrika No. 8, Gelora Bung KarnoSenayan, Jakarta Pusat 12710Indonesia © Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, 2025ERIA Research Project Report FY2025, No. 8Published in July 2025 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrievalsystem, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic or mechanical without priorwritten notice to and permission from ERIA. The findings, interpretations, conclusions, and views expressed in their respectivechapters are entirely those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views andpolicies of the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, its Governing Board,Academic Advisory Council, or the institutions and governments they represent.Any errorin content or citation in the respective chapters is the sole responsibility of the author/s. Materialin this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted with properacknowledgement. List of Project Members Authors Nadhilah Shani, Manager of Power Generation and Interconnection Department, ASEANCentre for Energy (ACE) Dr. Ambiyah Abdullah, Senior Researcher of Energy Modelling and Policy PlanningDepartment, ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) Marcel Nicky Arianto, Researcher of Power Generation and Interconnection Department,ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) Beni Suryadi, Senior Manager of Strategic Partnership for the ASEAN Plan of Action forEnergy Cooperation (Project Coordinator) Nadhilah Shani, Manager of Power Generation and Interconnection (Author) Dr Ambiyah Abdullah, Senior Researcher of Energy Modelling and Policy PlanningDepartment (Author) Marcel Nicky Arianto, Researcher of Power Generation and Interconnection Department(Author) ERIA Tran Dong Phuong, Senior Policy Fellow (Project Coordinator/ Editor)Dr Alloysius Joko Purwanto, Energy Economist (Project Coordinator/ Editor)Shafa Nabilla Haya, Research Associate (Editor) Contents List of Project Membersiii List of Figuresv List of Tablesvii Executive Summaryviii Chapter 1 Global Hydrogen and Ammonia Development1 Chapter 2The Hydrogen and Ammonia Landscape in the ASEANRegion50 Chapter 3Opportunities in Developing Low-carbon Hydrogen andAmmonia Technology69 Chapter 4Analysis of Hydrogen and Ammonia’s Role in the ASEANEnergy Sector87 References99 Annex104 List of Figures Figure 1.1Competitiveness of Hydrogen Technologies and Low-carbonAlternatives Worldwide4Figure 1.2Global Hydrogen Flows, Further Acceleration Scenario11Figure 1.3Expected Ammonia Demand to 2050 for the 1.5°C Scenario13Figure 1.4Expected Ammonia Production by Feedstock to 2050 for the1.5°C Scenario14Figure 1.5Projection of Hydrogen Production Costs Worldwide until205016Figure 1.6Production Costs of Low-carbon and Renewable AmmoniaWorldwide17Figure 1.7Cost Breakdown of Green Ammonia Production via DifferentElectrolysis Technology18Figure 1.8The Steam Methane Reforming Process19Figure 1.9Methane Pyrolysis21Figure 1.10Water Electrolyser Process23Figure 1.11Conventional Ammonia Production: Haber-Bosch25Figure 1.12The Hydrogen Value Chain27Figure 1.13Average Costs of Hydrogen and Ammonia Transport byPipelines and Ships Worldwide31Figure 1.14Global Annual Investment in Infrastructure in the Net-zeroEmissions Scenario32Figure 1.15Hydrogen Storage Costs Worldwide36Figure 1.16Status of Hydrogen Production and Utilisation Globally, 201837Figure 1.17Map of Announced Low-emissions Hydrogen ProductionProjects38Figure 1.18Estimated Supply of Hydrogen by Region Based on CurrentProject Pipeline40Figure 1.19Hydrogen Demand Scenarios41Figure 1.20Published and Updated Hydrogen Strategies in ChronologicalOrder43Figure 1.21Countries with Available or Announced Hydrogen Strategies44 Figure 2.1Timeline of the Release of ASEAN Member States’ HydrogenStrategies56Figure 3.1Total Final Energy Consumption in ASEAN69Figure 3.2Current Hydrogen Demand in ASEAN by Sector71Figure 3.3Future Hydrogen Demand by Scenario and Sector73Figure 3.4Future Hydrogen Demand by Country and Scenario73Figure 3.5Hydrogen Production Potential by Country Based onEconomical Viable Wind and Solar Energy78Figure 3.6Current Hydrogen Supply Projects in ASEAN80Figure 3.7Green Hydrogen Production Costs83Figure 3.8ASEAN Member States’ Priority Sectors for HydrogenAdoption84Figure 4.1Participants of the Survey88Figure 4.2Survey Results – Significant Barriers to the Development of aHydrogen Market in ASEAN88Figure 4.3ASEAN’s Long-term Strategy on Low-carbon Hydrogen andAmmonia91 List of Tables Table1.1Comparison of Electrolysis Technologies TechnicalSpecifications24Table 2.1ASEAN Member States’ Energy Transition and ClimateTargets52Table 2.2ASEAN Member States with Hydrogen Strategies and FocusAreas56Table